Trend detection in river flow series: 2. Flood and low-flow index series / Détection de tendance dans des séries de débit fluvial: 2. Séries d'indices de crue et d'étiage

Abstract

Major floods in Europe and North America during the past decade have provoked the question of whether or not they are an effect of a changing climate. This study investigates changes in observational data, using up to 100-year-long daily mean river flow records at 21 stations worldwide. Trends in seven flood and low-flow index series are assessed using Mann-Kendall and linear regression methods. Emphasis was on the comparison of trends in these flow index series, particularly in peak-over-threshold (POT) series as opposed to annual maximum (AM) river flow series. There is a larger number of significant trends in the AM than in the POT flood magnitude series, probably relating to the way the series are constructed. Low flood peaks occurring at the beginning or end of a time series with trend may be too low to be selected for the POT analysis. However, one peak per year will always be selected for the AM series, making the slope steeper and/or the series longer, resulting in a more significant trend. There is no general pattern of increasing or decreasing numbers or magnitudes of floods, but there are significant increases in half of the low-flow series.     

Three‐dimensional transient thermo‐hydro‐mechanical fundamental solutions of unsaturated soils

The governing differential equations of unsaturated soils considering the thermo‐poro‐mechanical behaviour consist of equilibrium, moisture air and heat transfer equations. In this paper at first, following some necessary simplifications, the thermal three‐dimensional fundamental solution for an unsaturated deformable porous medium with linear elastic behaviour in Laplace transform domain is presented. Subsequently, the closed‐form time domain fundamental solutions are derived by analytical inversion of the Laplace transform domain solutions. Then a set of numerical results are presented, which demonstrate the accuracies and some salient features of the derived analytical transient fundamental solutions. Finally, the closed‐form time domain fundamental solution will be verified mathematically by comparison with the previously introduced corresponding fundamental solution. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

全站仪和滑动测微计在水布垭地下厂房监测中的应用

首次在国内大型水电工程地下厂房采用高精度全站仪和滑动测微,计分别对施工期围岩表面和深部的变形进行监测。近30个月的监测资料表明,围岩表面监测中变形较大的沉降和收敛测点集中在地下厂房开挖中的第5,6层的岩体上,围岩深部变形主要由岩体结构面或软弱面的张开引起的,地下厂房在监测期间处于稳定状态。通过施工开挖变形快速监测与预报,实时指导施工,保证了工程的安全施工。     

大洋富钴结壳实时开采切削深度优化分级模型研究

根据统计分形理论对大量实验测得的微地形数字高程数据进行了分维空间、无标度区和分形维数等分析和计算,并求出了各自的地形特征数据,同时建立了单个微地形在控制废石混入率时富钴结壳开采的最优切削深度的遗传寻优算法。在此基础上,利用实验所得各种分形特征数据及微地形的自相似性、各向异性及分形布朗函数,通过计算机自动生成了大量仿真微地形,并求出了各相应仿真微地形的地形特征数值和在控制废石混入率时富钴结壳开采的最优切削深度,再通过对此大样本的统计回归分析,建立了大洋富钴结壳实时开采切削深度的优化分级模型。该模型经实验数据的验证,其结果达到了满意的要求。     

得尔布干成矿区黑山头以北地区重、磁、遥构造解译

得尔布干成矿区黑山头以北地区为森林-沼泽景观区,岩石露头极少,交通十分不便.因此,对该区的区域性重、磁、遥解译显得十分必要,可为地质、矿产调查提供重要信息.重、磁、遥解译认为,较发育的线性构造有NE、NW及NNE、E-W、S-N向等.在上黑龙江拗陷区及额尔古纳隆起区,线性构造主要为NE与NW向,并构成菱形格状构造.区内NE、NW及S-N向裂隙与控矿关系密切.磁、遥解译的环形构造常常是中生代火山-侵入中心,是成矿的重要热源或热液源.     

塔克拉玛干沙漠简单线形沙丘形态动力学过程研究

采样分析、风沙观测以及计算结果表明,在不同风向作用以及沙丘形态参数改变等因素的控制下,简单线形沙丘表面起动剪切速度有明显的差异。表面的气流强度随风向的改变而有所不同。气流与沙丘正交时迎风一侧的输沙率远大于背风一侧同地貌部位的输沙率,但当气流与沙丘走向斜交时,沙丘两侧同地貌部位的输沙率差异不是太大,这是线形沙丘在动力学过程中能保持其形态的最主要原因之一。风向的多变以及沙丘形态的变化使风沙流内边界层内随高度的风速与所观测的输沙率虽也表现为幂函数关系,但相关性较低。沙丘表面被输移的沙物质的粒度分布与下垫面物质组成有一定的差异,在中低强度的起沙风范围内,被输移的沙物质的平均粒径小于下垫面沙物质的平均粒径,且随风速或输沙率的增大,粒度组成也趋于统一。总体上,地表沙物质的输移仍是一随机过程。     

打入桩承载力确定方法对安全系数的影响

在传统的容许应力设计方法中桩基承载力安全系数取决于桩基承载力的确定方法,然而,基于经验选择的承载力安全系数缺少理论依据,为此,基于贝叶斯理论和线性回归方法提出了评价桩基承载力确定方法对承载力安全系数影响的方法,给出了现行规范对于不同承载力确定方法采用不同安全系数的理论依据,阐明了桩基动力测试降低安全系数的理论依据,并以7种桩基设计方法为例,分析了承载力确定方法对安全系数的影响。结果表明,采用所提出的方法计算的安全系数基本上与现行的经验值相一致,表明精确的承载力确定方法可以有效地降低承载力安全系数,设计方法、承载力确定方法和水平都对安全系数有影响,但当承载力试验桩的数目足够多时,安全系数对于设计方法的精确性不敏感。     

Study of Different Attenuation Correction Methods in Association with Rainfall Estimation for X-Band Polarimetric Radars

Different attenuation correction methods for the X-band dual linear polarimetric radar are analyzed in this paper.The specific differential phase shift K DP is always considered as an effective factor in radar signal attenuation correction.However,the values of K DP for light rains are too small,which results in unstable quality and large errors of rainfall estimation.Therefore,radar horizontal reflectivity Z H and specific differential phase shift are combined together in the Z H –K DP method to correct th...     

Prediction of base flows from basin characteristics: a case study from Zimbabwe / Prévision de débits de base à partir de caractéristiques du bassin: une étude de cas au Zimbabwe

Abstract

Abstract Base flows make up the flows of most rivers in Zimbabwe during the dry season. Prediction of base flows from basin characteristics is necessary for water resources planning of ungauged basins. Linear regression and artificial neural networks were used to predict the base flow index (BFI) from basin characteristics for 52 basins in Zimbabwe. Base flow index was positively related to mean annual precipitation (r = 0.71), basin slope (r = 0.76), and drainage density (r = 0.29), and negatively related to mean annual evapotranspiration (r = –0.74), and proportion of a basin with grasslands and wooded grasslands (r = –0.53). Differences in lithology did not significantly affect BFI. Linear regression and artificial neural networks were both suitable for predicting BFI values. The predicted BFI was used in turn to derive flow duration curves of the 52 basins and with R ² being 0.89–0.99.     

Stormwater quality during residential construction activities: influential variables

Research on the water quality of urban runoff has so far focussed on the post‐development phase of urban catchments, whereas water quality in developing areas under construction has remained less understood. The construction phase, however, may constitute a considerable source of diffuse pollution in urban areas. This study investigated the mechanisms affecting water quality in residential areas during the construction and post‐construction phases. Water quality (suspended solids, total phosphorus, total nitrogen and chemical oxygen demand) and runoff were monitored over a period of 5 years in three catchments located in the city of Espoo in Southern Finland. The catchments included an urbanizing area under construction and low‐density and high‐density residential areas. The water quality was quantified in terms of event mean concentrations and loads. The key influential variables explaining the water quality in a multiple linear regression analysis included hydrological variables (event volume and intensity), antecedent conditions and a variable describing the ongoing construction projects. Construction activities in the developing catchment had a profound impact on water quality. Inclusion of the variables describing activities, such as earth moving works, paving, house construction and temporary wastewater discharges, was necessary to explain water quality variations in the developing catchment. The importance of antecedent conditions as an explanatory variable depended on the site and the pollutant in question. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.