吉林省玉米产业发展可持续能力评价研究

基于地理信息系统(GIS)及空间分析模型,从玉米生产与加工两个方面构建玉米产业可持续能力评价(sustainabliality Assessment SA)指标体系,对吉林省玉米产业发展可持续能力进行评价,并对吉林省玉米产业布局现状和规划的合理性进行分析。结果表明:长春市辖区由于地理条件优越、交通便捷以及丰富的玉米资源,是玉米产业发展的最优区域。吉林市辖区、四平市辖区、公主岭市、梨树县、农安县、扶余县地理条件相对优越、交通便捷以及丰富的玉米资源,是玉米产业发展的良好区域。松原市辖区、前郭县、德惠市、榆树市、辽源市辖区、东丰县是玉米产业发展的一般区域。大安市、乾安县、长岭县、舒兰市、永吉县、双辽市发展玉米产业条件相对较差。     

基于遥感和GIS的建筑物震害损失评估方法研究与实现

介绍了一种使用遥感技术进行震后损失快速评估的方法,评估流程包括震害提取和损失评估两个部分。评估方式根据需求可以分为基于震害指数的评估和基于图像分类结果的评估两种模式,前者通过震害指数与烈度的关系得到地面居民住地的宏观震害情况,结合地震应急数据进行建筑物损失评估;后者采用图像处理技术,选取典型震害样本以图像分类技术得到地面居民住地的分级分类的震害结果,然后计算参数进行损失评估。损失评估的计算根据震害提取模式而不同。这种遥感震害评估方法和计算流程结合了遥感和GIS技术,以满足实际工作需求目标,提高了震害提取的自动化程度,实现多人工作模式,通过有效率的人机交互来提高遥感震害评估的速度。     

Population abundance and seasonal migration patterns indicated by commercial catch-per-unit-effort of hakes (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) in the northern Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem

We developed generalised additive models (GAMs) to estimate standardised time-series of population abundance indices for assessment purposes and to infer ecological and behavioural information on northern Benguela hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using haul-by-haul commercial trawl catch-rate data as proxies for hake densities. The modelling indicated that individual ship identifiers should be used rather than general vessel characteristics, such as vessel size. The final models explained 79% and 68% of the variability in the commercial catch rates of M. capensis and M. paradoxus, respectively. The spatial density patterns were consistent and confirmed existing knowledge about these species in the northern Benguela system. Furthermore, seasonal migration patterns were described for the first time and were found to correspond to the known spawning areas and seasons for M. capensis and M. paradoxus. Spatial density patterns were validated using the geostatistical modelling results of fisheries-independent trawl survey data. Improved understanding of the relationships between fleet dynamics and fish movement can be achieved by taking into consideration the present catch-rate model and spatial and seasonal distribution maps. We conclude that the yearly standardised CPUE time-series are problematic as proxies for total stock abundance because of spatial coverage issues. Consequently, such CPUE data should not be used for stock-size assessments and fisheries advice concerning northern Benguela hakes until this is solved. We generally recommend the exclusion of standardised CPUE time-series from stock assessments when important and changing parts of the stock distribution cannot be targeted by the fishery, such as due to closed areas or seasons.     

Damage assessment for submarine photoelectric composite cable under anchor impact

The impact of dropped anchor on submarine photoelectric composite cables may possibly cause electrical faults, i.e. electricity and optical signal transmission failure. In order to study the impact capacity and structural impact failure mechanism, a test setup is designed originally to examine the structural and functional integrity. A detailed finite element model (FEM) is created, considering material nonlinearity and component interaction. A parametric analysis has been performed to predict the deformation of components and impact forces, under different impact velocities and collision directions. Relationships between the armor layer indentation rate and that of internal power and optical units are achieved. The impact deformation of internal entities can be evaluated intuitively by armor layer indentation. The proposed experimental and numerical methods are well correlated, suitable to assess the impact capacity of subsea power cables and assist the protection design of subsea power cables in engineering.     

利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼

西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼,Illex argentinus,巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子（滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比）影响动态产量模型的参数K,DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量（MSY）在351600吨到685 100吨之间,资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间,其捕捞死亡系数均小于F_0.1和F_MSY,资源处在良好状态,没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。     

基于加权贝叶斯网络的海洋灾害风险评估

全球气候变化背景下,海洋灾害的群发性、难以预见性和灾害链效应日显突出,造成的损失逐年上升,开展海洋灾害的风险评估工作至关重要。针对海洋灾害评估中的不确定问题,本文首先基于风险理论剖析了海洋灾害风险的不确定性特征,构建了灾害评估指标体系;然后基于贝叶斯网络模型,提出针对不确定性灾害评估的风险贝叶斯网络,进而基于主客观定权,构建了加权贝叶斯网络评估模型;最后对我国沿海地区海洋灾害开展评估研究。实验表明,该评估模型有效实现海洋灾害的风险评估,具有实际可操作性。     

中国省域煤矿事故时空分异特征及影响因素研究

煤矿事故给国家和人民带来巨大的生命财产损失,科学把握煤矿事故发生的宏观规律及区域煤矿安全的影响因素有助于促进煤矿安全生产。本文尝试采用GIS空间分析方法开展区域煤矿事故的研究,基于空间自相关性、时空演化规律方法研究了2006-2015年中国省域煤矿事故的时空分异特点,并分析了省域煤矿安全的影响因素及相对风险度。主要结论：①中国各省区之间煤矿事故存在明显的空间自相关性,但随着各省区煤矿安全生产形势改善情况的不同,其自相关性在不断下降;②以空间重心转移曲线分析中国煤矿事故发生的时空演化规律,10年间煤矿事故空间重心向东北方向转移。③重特大事故频发的省区由于监管措施的有力执行往往具有较低的煤矿百万吨死亡率;平均煤矿生产能力低的省区具有较高的煤矿百万吨死亡率;④建立基于解释变量的贝叶斯空间模型,以煤炭百万吨死亡率为指标评估中国各省区煤矿事故相对风险度,中国煤矿安全生产相对危险度存在明显的空间分布规律且各省区差异较大,相对危险度较高的省区主要集中在南方地区,包括湖北、福建等,危险度较低的省区主要集中在中东部地区,包括山西、内蒙古等。     

The anatomy of a disaster, an overview of Hurricane Katrina and New Orleans

Hurricane Katrina created the one of the worst natural disaster in the history of the United States, resulting in over 1600 fatalities and $30B in direct economic losses in southern Louisiana. The Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines experienced the highest surge level recorded in North America and Katrina-generated waves in the Gulf of Mexico that equaled the highest previously measured by NOAA buoys. What happened in New Orleans epitomizes the risk of living below sea level in a coastal city, depending on structures that were the result of considerable compromise and piecemeal funding and construction. The Interagency Performance Evaluation Task Force was established to examine the performance of the New Orleans and southeast Louisiana hurricane protection system and provide real-time input to the repairs and rebuilding of the system. In addition to this atypical just-in-time forensic analysis, the task force examined the risk of living in New Orleans prior to and following the repairs to the hurricane protection system. Much of the forensic analysis depended on modeling and simulation of hurricane surge and waves. With virtually all measurement instruments swept away by Katrina, only models and high-water marks were available to recreate the conditions that the structures experienced during the storm. Because of the complexities of the region and the processes involved, simulation of hurricane surge and waves required many fresh ideas and new approaches and these topics, along with new concepts for future planning and design, are the focus of this special issue. Yet, the need to influence the repair and rebuilding of the damaged structures prior to the next hurricane season (roughly 9 months) dictated using existing computational tools that were ready to go. The same modeling and simulation approach was put to work to define the surge and wave hazard New Orleans faces for the future. To put this important body of work in context, this paper provides a broad overview of the entire scope of work of the task force and summarizes its principal findings.     

连云港近岸海域沉积物中重金属污染来源及生态评价

采用等离子体发射光谱法、冷原子吸收法、原子荧光光谱法及灼烧法测定了连云港海州湾近岸表层沉积物中重金属和有机质的含量,利用主成分分析法(Principal Component Analysis,PCA)研究了沉积物中重金属的来源,发现前3个主成分的贡献率分别为54.21%、19.04%、16.37%,表明重金属主要有3个来源:工业和生活污水排放、农业灌溉水的排放、有机质降解。以PCA计算结果为基础应用海洋沉积物污染指数(Marine sediment pollution index,MSPI)和平均沉积物质量标准商数(Mean sediment quality guideline quotient,SQG-Q)评价了沉积物中重金属的污染状况及对生物的潜在影响。结果发现,海州湾近岸海区沉积物质量污染严重(MSPI值在60到80之间),排污口海区的沉积物污染最为严重(MSPI值大于80),连云港近岸海域沉积物对生物的负影响潜力为中度水平(0.1SQG-Q1)。