Safety Assessment of Buried Pipeline during Pile Driving Vibration in Offshore Engineering

To assess the impact of pile driving on adjacent submarine pipelines during the reconstruction of a pier berth, the local damage model of submarine pipelines is established to explore the safety thresholds of the particle peak velocity and horizontal displacement. The results are analyzed and adjusted by the existing standards and the corresponding literatures. Then, a three-dimensional numerical model is presented to assess the feasibility of the construction of piles by the obtained safety limits, in which the nonlinear behavior of the soil and stress–seepage coupling analysis are considered. After the construction, the safety of submarine pipelines is rechecked by the measured value of the particle peak velocity and horizontal displacement. Meanwhile, the propagation law of vibration, the horizontal displacement of underground soil, and the pore pressure during pile driving are explored. The results indicate that the construction of piles of 2# mooring pier did not cause damage to adjacent submarine pipelines. However, the construction of piles of 1# mooring pier which is nearer may cause damage to submarine pipelines.     

“松科二井”用硬岩长寿命钻头的设计与应用

为提高“松科二井”在深井硬岩钻进中的寿命与效率,选用了高性能胎体材料、高强度焊接材料,并采用了合理的钻头结构与水路结构设计,研制的φ216/124 mm金刚石取心钻头在“松科二井”取得了良好的效果,本文介绍了适用于深井硬岩的金刚石钻头的设计及应用效果。     

Impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and associated uncertainties

This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (±20%) on the Seine, by 20% (±20%) on the Loire, by 20% (±15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (±15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne.     

高亚洲地区冰崩灾害的研究进展

在全球气候变化的背景下,冰崩灾害极有可能成为人类面临的新常态。特别是在高亚洲地区,冰崩灾害事件严重威胁"亚洲水塔"的命运和"第三极"的生态安全。因此,研究冰崩灾害事件对于保障"一带一路"国家战略的顺利实施和保护"一带一路"沿线国家的生产与生存环境具有重要的现实意义。通过梳理历史上有记录的几次冰崩灾害事件,系统介绍冰崩的发生过程;再从冰崩体的物质组成、冰崩体的运动特征、冰崩发生的可能原因以及冰崩的影响等方面总结了冰崩的研究内容;重点阐述了冰崩的研究方法;最后讨论了当前冰崩研究存在的问题,并从冰崩研究方法等角度展望了未来冰崩灾害事件的研究方向。     

青藏铁路对西藏各经济部门发展影响的定量评估

青藏铁路对西藏经济发展影响重大,定量评估其对各经济部门发展的影响程度,是全面评价铁路交通基础设施效益、分析未来冰冻圈变化对线性工程及经济社会重大影响的基础。将灰色关联分析法与投入产出法相结合,既填补了关联度分析的黑箱式缺陷,又弥补了西藏投入产出调查缺乏长时间序列数据的问题,以此来认识青藏铁路对西藏经济发展的影响机理与路径。以2006-2016年统计数据为基础,采用灰色关联度模型计算青藏铁路与西藏各经济部门发展的灰色关联度值,表明铁路运输水平与西藏地区生产总值（GDP）、第三产业高度相关,其中与货运邮电业、住宿餐饮业两个部门关联度达到了0.9以上。在灰色关联度结果的基础上,运用西藏2012年投入产出表及投入产出模型计算铁路的直接作用,以及对各经济部门的间接波及作用,研究发现：青藏铁路建设及运营的劳动密集程度高,且通过灰色关联度较高行业的产品及服务影响其他行业,以直接作用、后向和前向波及作用、消费波及作用三种路径对区域经济的发展产生重要影响,扣除消费波及作用的总体贡献达到41.7亿元,相当于2012年西藏GDP的5.95%。由于铁路交通基础设施重要的直接作用及间接波及作用,建议在工程条件适宜地区加快铁路运输网络建设,同时,将工程设施的社会经济效益纳入冰冻圈服务功能核算中。     

俯冲带碳酸盐化对深部碳循环的启示:以中国西南天山碳酸盐化云母片岩为例

俯冲带可将地球表层碳输送至深部地幔,同时也记录着俯冲板片来源碳质流体的迁移沉淀机制,对地球深部碳循环具有重大影响。近年来,俯冲带脱碳机制的研究表明流体溶解脱碳作用是冷的大洋俯冲板片释放COH流体的重要方式,而上覆板块(尤其地幔楔)则被认为是缓冲这些COH流体的重要场所,甚至是俯冲带CO_2的唯一"归宿"。事实上,俯冲带岩石本身的固碳能力却受到了忽视,而对俯冲带岩石捕获和固存CO_2(carbon capture and storage,CCS)能力的评估对全球碳通量的估算尤为重要。本文以中国西南天山高压-超高压变质带中碳酸盐化云母片岩为例,探讨俯冲带岩石的碳酸盐化对深部碳循环的影响。西南天山长阿吾子一带的碳酸盐化云母片岩记录了俯冲板片起源的碳质流体对俯冲带云母片岩的交代作用,地球化学特征表明蛇纹岩释放的富水流体溶解俯冲洋壳中的碳酸盐可能是产生COH流体的重要机制。基于碳质流体对多硅白云母(Si(a.p.f.u.)=3.58～3.73)的交代及相对高压的碳酸盐矿物(主要为白云石和菱镁矿)与金红石的共生,结合区域上碳酸盐化云母片岩与高压碳酸盐化蛇纹岩(HP-ophidolomite)的伴生,我们认为云母片岩的碳酸盐化作用可能发生在俯冲板片峰期稍后的高压折返阶段。俯冲带云母片岩的固碳作用表明除了上覆板块,俯冲带岩石本身对于碳质流体也具有很好的吸收能力。初步估算表明俯冲带云母片岩的碳酸盐化每年可固存至少2.46～6.68Mt/yr,约占俯冲板片每年进碳量的4%～17%。     

Water Cycle Analysis of Social and Economic System in Tarim River Basin

Water cycle includes natural water circulation and social economic system water cycle. The concept of virtual water provides a new method and means for studying social water circulation. This paper is based on the theory of water circulation in social and economic system, using input-output analysis method quantitatively describes the Tarim River basin of social water cycle paths and analysis of water resources management in Tarim River basin sustainable development process of the key issues. The results show that the main sectors of virtual water export in the Tarim River Basin are agriculture, petroleum, natural gas and food industry. Agricultural water accounts for more than 98% of total water consumption, most of which is transferred to the food and textile industries, and the food industry export water from the agricultural sector. Shandong Province is the largest virtual water transport area in the Tarim River Basin. The main sector of virtual water input in the Tarim River Basin is the metallurgical industry. Finally, in view of the problems arising from the inter-industrial and inter-regional social water circulation in the Tarim River basin, the paper puts forward the ways and strategies of regulating agricultural and industrial water use in the Tarim River Basin.     

IPCC AR6报告解读：气候系统对太阳辐射干预响应

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告评估了太阳辐射干预（Solar radiation modification,SRM）对气候系统和碳循环的影响。在大幅度减排基础上,太阳辐射干预有潜力作为应对气候变化的备用措施。目前,对于太阳辐射干预气候影响的评估都是基于模式模拟结果。评估主要结论如下：太阳辐射干预可以在全球和区域尺度上抵消一部分温室气体增加造成的气候变化（高信度);但是太阳辐射干预无法在全球和区域尺度上完全抵消温室气体增加引起的气候变化（几乎确定);有可能通过适当的太阳辐射干预设计,同时实现多个温度变化减缓目标（中等信度);在高强度温室气体排放情景下,如果太阳辐射干预实施后突然终止,并且这种终止长时间持续,将会造成快速的气候变化（高信度);如果在减排和CO₂移除的情况下,太阳辐射干预的实施强度逐渐减小至零,将显著降低太阳辐射干预突然终止产生的快速气候变化风险（中等信度);太阳辐射干预会通过降温作用,促进陆地和海洋对大气CO₂的吸收（中等信度),但是太阳辐射干预无法缓解海洋酸化（高信度);太阳辐射干预对其他生物化学循环影响的不确定性大。由于对云-气溶胶-辐射过程的相互作用和微物理过程认知有限,目前对平流层气溶胶注入、海洋低云亮化、高层卷云变薄等太阳辐射干预方法的冷却潜力和气候效应的认知还有很大的不确定性。     

A CRPS-Based Spatial Technique for the Verification of Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

Traditional precipitation skill scores are affected by the well-known“double penalty”problem caused by the slight spatial or temporal mismatches between forecasts and observations. The fuzzy (neighborhood) method has been proposed for deterministic simulations and shown some ability to solve this problem. The increasing resolution of ensemble forecasts of precipitation means that they now have similar problems as deterministic forecasts. We developed an ensemble precipitation verification skill score, i.e., the Spatial Continuous Ranked Probability Score (SCRPS), and used it to extend spatial verification from deterministic into ensemble forecasts. The SCRPS is a spatial technique based on the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) and the fuzzy method. A fast binomial random variation generator was used to obtain random indexes based on the climatological mean observed frequency, which were then used in the reference score to calculate the skill score of the SCRPS. The verification results obtained using daily forecast products from the ECMWF ensemble forecasts and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the OPERA datasets during June-August 2018 shows that the spatial score is not affected by the number of ensemble forecast members and that a consistent assessment can be obtained. The score can reflect the performance of ensemble forecasts in modeling precipitation and thus can be widely used.     

地下水资源遥感评估技术研究进展

地下水的赋存和埋深是地下水资源勘察的重要内容。遥感技术具有数据获取快、综合成本低、观测尺度大等诸多优势。基于遥感的地下水资源评估技术一直受到研究人员的关注,也是遥感应用研究中的热点和难点。回顾总结了遥感技术在评估地下水赋存和埋深领域的应用与研究进展,根据不同评估技术的特点将其划分为单因子模型评估法、多因子综合模型评估法、重力卫星数据评估法3种。得出以下结论: ①地下水遥感评估技术经过多年发展,模型方法更加多样,精确度不断提高,可以作为传统地下水资源勘察的重要辅助手段; ②遥感评估地下水赋存的研究发展迅速,但针对地下水埋深信息的评估研究进展相对缓慢; ③高时空分辨率遥感技术和机器学习技术的结合运用、无人机遥感技术的应用是地下水资源遥感评估技术的未来发展方向。