宁波市地下空间开发利用地质环境适宜性评价

随着城市化建设快速推进,地下空间资源开发是解决城市土地资源紧张的合理途径,而地质环境适宜性评价对地下空间的开发利用具有至关重要的作用。本文分析了城市地下空间开发利用地质环境适宜性评价的影响因素,运用层次分析法确定岩土体特征、水文地质条件、环境地质问题、技术经济等指标因素的权重,建立模糊综合评价模型,定量评价宁波东部新城浅层(-15~0m)和中层(-30~-15m)的地下空间开发利用地质环境适宜程度。评价结果显示,东部新城地下空间开发地质环境适宜性等级分为Ⅱ级较适宜和Ⅲ级较不适宜,并根据不同的适宜等级提出了地下空间开发利用方式,为宁波东部新城的地下空间开发利用提供依据。     

鄂尔多斯盆地杭锦旗探区二叠系下石盒子组盒1段致密砂岩气层测井评价方法

通过储层"四性"关系研究,分析了鄂尔多斯盆地北部杭锦旗探区致密砂岩储层岩性对物性的控制作用及测井曲线对储层岩性、物性和含气性的响应特征。认为二叠系下石盒子组盒1段砂岩石英含量、粒度和孔隙结构是影响物性和含气性的主要因素,储层"四性"关系具有砂岩粒度与石英含量控制物性、物性控制含气性的基本特点。利用交汇图版法与双孔隙度曲线叠合法对研究区二叠系下石盒子组盒1段气层进行了综合识别。根据储层的岩性、物性、孔隙结构等参数,结合单井测试产能特征,将杭锦旗探区二叠系下石盒子组盒1段气层划分为3类进行综合评价,气层以Ⅱ类为主,其次为Ⅰ类。     

Information structuring and risk-based inspection for the marine oil pipelines

The proposed work is incorporated into the research theme concerning the maintenance and inspection of sensitive facilities in production systems. It is essential to promote the methodological deployment of inspection techniques to ensure the good functioning of services provided by complex production systems as well as their different components. We use a risk-based inspection methodology offering an organized analysis with knowledge sharing for collaborative possibilities in a multidisciplinary context and it consists of the following steps: data acquisition and information collection, failure analysis (probability and consequences), risk assessment, inspection plan, mitigation and revaluation. The application of this methodology can improve the maintenance management strategies of industrial companies. The inspection department is able to forecast its potential failure, root causes and impacts on the safe operation of the considered production system, based on a reliable inventory of existing situations and review options for continuous improvement in maintenance management. In particular, we addressed the application of a Risk-Based Inspection (RBI) methodology in the French petroleum company with operations on the west coast of central and southern Africa. The incorporation of expert knowledge into risk assessment is helping to find the best preventive plan for pipeline inspection in the case study.     

Direct scantling assessment of propeller blades

Traditionally, propeller design has been focused on all activities necessary to obtain a propeller featuring a high efficiency, avoiding erosive cavitation for given operating conditions and having adequate structural strength. In recent years, more and more challenging requirements have been imposed, such as the reduction of radiated noise and pressures pulses, requiring more precise analyses and methods in the optimization of the propeller performance. On the other hand, the evaluation of the propeller strength still relies on simplified methods, which basically consider the blade as a cantilever beam subjected to characteristic static forces. Since the loads acting on a blade are variable in the blade revolution and in different operating conditions throughout the ship life, a procedure to account for the influence of fatigue phenomena is proposed. The fatigue assessment could reduce the safety factor in the propeller scantling rules and allow improving the quality of propeller design (e.g. obtaining higher efficiency, margin on cavitation phenomena, less noise).     

夏季南海北部微型浮游动物群落

根据2014年8月至9月于珠江口至南海中部断面(18°00'~22°00'N,114°00'~116°00'E)的南海北部海域进行采样调查,并进行了微型浮游动物群落分析。共发现微型浮游动物142种,隶属于2门44属,其中砂壳纤毛虫28属78种,占所有发现物种数的54.93%;寡毛类纤毛虫14属59种,占所有发现物种数的41.55%。优势类群为:拟卡金斯急游虫(Strombidium paracalkinsi)、具沟急游虫(Strombidium sulcatum)、维尔伯特急游虫(Strombidium wilberti)和无节幼体(nauplii)。调查区微型浮游动物的丰度介于11.43~959.35 ind/L之间,平均值为264.99 ind/L。微型浮游动物垂直分布总体特点是密集区位于50 m水层,50 m水层之下丰度逐渐减少。表层微型浮游动物丰度高值区位于J5-I1站位之间。断面的香农-威纳指数范围在0.92~4.18之间,平均值为2.77;均匀度指数在0.63~1之间,平均值为0.87。应用典范对应分析(CCA)发现温度和盐度是影响微型浮游动物群落的重要因素。通过对连续追踪站位的调查发现,上层水体微型浮游动物群落丰度随着时间而发生一定的变化,下层水体相对较平缓。微型浮游动物昼夜的垂直丰度变化与叶绿素浓度昼夜变化大致相符。     

Dynamic assessment of pollution risk of groundwater source area in Northern China

Based on the dynamic analysis and research of pollution risk of groundwater sources, this paper creates the dynamic assessment method of pollution risk of groundwater source area under the theory of “source-pathway-receptor”, and applies this method to one typical fissure karst groundwater source area in northern China. Following the 30-year petroleum pollutant migration simulation and pollution risk assessment of groundwater source area, this study finds that the very high risk zone is mainly located in Q Petrochemical Company and the surrounding area and the area adjacent to River Z. Within this period of thirty years, the pollution risk of groundwater source area has showed a dynamic trend that features an inverted “V” shape. The ratio of very high risk zone to the total area will be 18.1%, 17.47% and 16.62% during the tenth year, the twentieth year and the thirtieth year separately, and will reach the highest level of 19.45% during the fifteenth year. Meanwhile, the vertical migration distance of pollutant centre concentration changed from the surface soil at the outset to the deepest point of about 250 meters underground during the tenth year. The results of this risk assessment indicate the dynamic feature of pollution risk. The dilution, degradation and migration of petroleum pollutants in groundwater system contribute to an ultimate decline in pollution risk.     

动力学模型预测深海鲣鱼(Katsuwonus pelamis)调理食品常温下的货架期

为了预测鲣鱼(Katsuwonus pelamis)调理食品的货架期,将鲣鱼调理食品贮藏在25°C、30°C、35°C温度条件下,通过测定在贮藏期间菌落总数、挥发性盐基氮、过氧化值三个指标的变化,分别对这三个指标与贮藏时间、温度建立一级动力学模型,来预测鲣鱼调理食品的货架期。经计算得出,菌落总数预测模型中的活化能(Ea)及指前因子(k0)分别为30.96 k J/mol和2.06×103,挥发性盐基氮预测模型中的的活化能及指前因子分别为24.35 k J/mol和75.1,过氧化值预测模型中的活化能及指前因子分别为48.75 k J/mol和2.92×106。在32°C和37°C条件下验证动力学模型,结果表明相对误差分别为–5.52%和–6.45%,准确性较好。进一步推算得出,在18°C和23°C常温下贮藏鲣鱼调理食品,产品的货架期为209d和172d。     

大连蜈蚣藻孢子发育及生活史的研究

在实验室条件下,对大连蜈蚣藻(Grateloupia dalianensis H.W.Wang et D.Zhao)的孢子早期发育、盘状体的形成和直立枝生长进行了详细研究,对其生活史进行了详细观察,并进行了温度和光照强度对孢子发育影响的研究。结果表明:(1)孢子发育类型为间接盘状体型;(2)生活史由雌、雄配子体、四分孢子体和果孢子体三相世代组成,配子体与孢子体形态相同,属于同型世代交替,与属模蜈蚣藻(G.filicina)一致;(3)温度对盘状体和直立枝生长均有影响,最适温度均为16℃;(4)光照强度对盘状体和直立枝生长均有影响,最适光照强度分别为7 500 lx和10 000 lx。     

中国人口城镇化质量评价及省际差异分析

新型城镇化是中国的重要国策,对人的城镇(市)化的科学评价是正确认识城镇化和制定相关政策的重要基础.目前城--乡二元分析框架下的以城镇化率和城镇(或区域)城镇化质量为主的评价方法,难以反映城镇化过程中社会结构的变化,同时乡村人口的城镇化发展也被忽略.本文提出人口城镇化质量的概念,建立了衡量人口城镇化质量的指标体系.对1995,2000,2005,2010和2012年全国及各省市的城镇人口,乡村人口及总人口的城镇化质量进行了分析.研究发现:① 尽管城镇人口的城镇化速度显著快于乡村人口,但城镇化并非城镇人口独有的社会过程.② 城乡两类人口的城镇化质量在省域尺度上正逐步形成差异明显的空间格局.③ 北京,上海,浙江等少数省市乡村人口的城镇化质量已经超越部分内地省市城镇人口的城镇化质量.建议更新对城镇化的认识和评价标准,探索在城镇化发达的地区调整城--乡二元体制的新途径,促进中国城镇化的健康发展.     

Evaluation of coseismic landslide hazard on the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway,South Island,New Zealand

Coseismic landsliding presents a major hazard to infrastructure in mountains during large earthquakes. This is particularly true for road networks, as historically coseismic landsliding has resulted in road losses larger than those due to ground shaking. Assessing the exposure of current and planned highway links to coseismic landsliding for future earthquake scenarios is therefore vital for disaster risk reduction. This study presents a method to evaluate the exposure of critical infrastructure to landsliding from scenario earthquakes from an underlying quantitative landslide hazard assessment. The method is applied to a proposed new highway link in South Island, New Zealand, for a scenario Alpine Fault earthquake and compared to the current network. Exposure (the likelihood of a network being affected by one or more landslides) is evaluated from a regional-scale coseismic landslide hazard model and assessed on a relative basis from 0 to 1. The results show that the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway (HHH) would be highly exposed to coseismic landsliding with at least 30–40?km likely to be badly affected (the Simonin Pass route being the worse affected of the two routes). In the current South Island State Highway network, the HHH would be the link most exposed to landsliding and would increase the total network exposure by 50–70% despite increasing the total road length by just 3%. The present work is intended to provide an effective method to assess coseismic landslide hazard of infrastructure in mountains with seismic hazard, and potentially identify mitigation options and critical network segments.