三峡井网井水位对汶川8.0级地震的同震响应特征研究h

系统分析了三峡井网8口井水位对汶川8.0级地震的同震响应及其后效特征,揭示出这些特征因井而异,其差异性在井孔结构相似的条件下主要取决于井点的构造部位、观测含水层的地下水埋藏类型、含水层的导水系数等条件;深入研究了井水位同震后效特征中残留阶升与阶降的力学含义及其地震预测意义,并用仙女山断裂带上近期地震活动验证了残留阶升区可能是未来地震危险区的科学推论．      

加速遗传算法在地下水位动态分析中的应用

提出了一种改进的遗传算法－加速遗传算法,分析了它的原理,控制参数的设置,收敛性,全局优化性能和适用性,并把它成苗地应用于地下水位动态分析中。     

Holocene Foraminifera as Indicators of Relative Estuarine–Lagoonal and Oceanic Influences in Estuarine Sediments of the River Murray, South Australia: Volume 53, Number 3 (2000), pages 378–391

In southeastern South Australia, the River Murray debouches through a coastal barrier separating euryhaline estuarine-lagoonal waters from the Southern Ocean. Depending upon the relative freshwater outflow of the river and ingress of the ocean, water salinity varies greatly within the lower estuary. Ammonia beccarii and Elphidium articulatum are euryhaline species of foraminifera that characterize the estuary and back-barrier Coorong Lagoon. The inner-shelf marine environment hosts an assemblage in which Discorbis dimidiatus, E. crispum, E. macelliforme, and various cibicidid species predominate. In cored sediments recovered from the shallow lower estuary, the relative abundance of A. beccarii + E. articulatum was compared with that of D. dimidiatus + E. crispum + E. macelliforme + other species. These data, and AMS radiocarbon ages determined for foraminifera and ostracods, provide evidence of a change from maximum oceanic influence (5255 ± 60 yr B.P.) to maximum estuarine influence (3605 ± 70 yr B.P.). Over this same time interval, sea level fell relatively by about 2 m. However, the event was also contemporaneous with falling water levels in several Victorian lakes, and it is thus attributed to onset of climatic aridity. Reduced precipitation in the River Murray catchment and reduced freshwater outflow enhanced development of the flood-tide delta and constriction of the mouth.     

河南省境内淮河南北气候变化的小麦适应度比较

适应度是气候变化下适应性研究的关键环节,本文提出气候变化适应度的概念及其定量评价方法,并对淮河南北的小麦适应度进行比较分析。结果表明,目前河南省境内的南北气候分界线并非淮河干流区,而是由原位置北移约300 km处的最大支流地带,冬小麦的适应度空间变化大致围绕该分界线呈经向分布。淮河分界线以南地域适应度为62.57%,高于以北地域的56.81%,研究结果表明,欲达到河南农业可持续发展,距离完全适应仍有较大空间需要人为调控,且北部相比较南部其调控压力更大。在年际变化上,随着20世纪80年代气候的突变,各地小麦温度适应度骤增,水分适应度骤减,之后随着气候的日趋稳定,各气候要素的适应度不断上升,但在21世纪初上升速度下降,甚至有降低趋势,表明气候变暖的环境对小麦的负面影响日渐突出。     

基于空间分析与实证的中国农业土地边际收益与全要素生产率研究(英文)

This paper attempts to explore the temporal and spatial nature of the marginal revenue of land, total factor productivity (TFP) change and its three components: technical change (TC), technical efficiency change (TEC) and scale efficiency change (SEC) as seen in Chinese agricultural production from 1995 to 1999. Based on county-level data, the study utilized both stochastic frontier and mapping analyses methods. The results show that growth in the marginal revenue of land was diverse across various regions, where most gain occurred in eastern coastal zone, while loss was in Northwest and North China. China has experienced moderate decreases in annual TFP change (-0.26%) with considerable regional variations. Specifically, the administrative intervention in grain production and the deterioration of the agricultural technology diffusion system led to a moderate drop in annual TFP change. County-level mapping analyses took into account interregional variances in TFP and its components. Regarding components of TFP, TEC differences explain the majority of regional dispersions in TFP. As developed areas in China, the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan economic zone face the challenges of land conversion and grain security amidst the process of urbanization.     

华南地区奥陶纪头足类生物相及其分区

在研究华南地区奥陶纪头足类生态特征基础上,根据头足类的生态类型及其保存条件等特征,识别出18个头足类生物相,即开阔台地[WT5”BX]Proterocameroceras生物相,局限台地Pseudoectenolites-Xiadongoceras生物相,开阔台地Retroclitendoceras-Pararetrocli tendoceras生物相,开阔台地Pronajaceras-Mamagouceras生物相,陆棚斜坡—盆地Cyclostomiceras-Bactroceras生物相,开阔台地 Cameroceras-Cyrtovaginoceras生物相,开阔台地 Coreanoceras-Manchuroceras生物相,陆棚斜坡—盆地Kaipingoceras-Kyminoceras生物相,内陆棚Bathmoceras-Protocycloceras生物相,中部陆棚Dideroceras-Ancistroceras生物相,深水陆棚 Lituites-Cyclolituites 生物相,滞流盆地Lituites-Trilacinoceras生物相,深水盆地Paraendoceras-Sactorthoceras,深水陆棚Sinoceras-Michelinoceras-Disoceras生物相,深水陆棚Beloitoceras-Jiangshanoceras生物相,深水陆棚—盆地Eurasiaticoceras生物相,浅海陆棚—斜坡Jiangxiceras-Yushanoceras生物相,深水盆地Michelinoceras[WT5”BZ]生物相,并阐述各生物相的组成、生态特征及其生态环境。根据头足类生物相在时间和空间上的组合规律,划分出3个头足类生物相区,即扬子生物相区、黔东—湘西生物相区（过渡型生物相区）和湘中—浙西生物相区,并讨论了各生物相区在不同时期内头足类生态类型和生物相分异特征、海平面升降、环境演变特征以及其与油气的关系。认为在低海平面或海平面下降阶段中生物相分异明显,而在高海平面阶段中则分异较小。     

云南程海现代沉积物环境记录研究

本文通过对程海沉积物Ｃ、Ｈ、Ｎ等元素含量及其比值的综合分析,辨识了程海沉积物有机质Ｈ／Ｃ及Ｃ／Ｎ值的环境指示意义,发现它们增可作为程海水位波动及区域气候干湿变迁的替代性指标。研究结果表明：程海的水位和区域气候干湿主为化明显以历了两个不同的阶段,但整体上程海水位一直呈下降趋势,反映区域气候整体上向干旱化方向发展。     

初夏至盛夏东亚副热带西风急流突变早晚与东亚环流异常的关系

利用1961-2004年NCEP／NCAR再分析逐候资料和全国160站月平均降水资料,分析了初夏至盛夏东亚副热带急流北跳和急流中心西移发生早晚对7月东亚大气环流和我国降水的影响。结果表明,急流北跳时间与7月长江中下游地区降水异常正相关,急流中心西移时间则与7月淮河流域降水异常正相关,与华北和河套地区降水异常负相关。急流北跳时间与南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压南北位置异常及高纬贝加尔湖以东高压脊强度相关;而急流中心西移时间与南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压的东西伸展及贝加尔湖以西高压脊强度相关,在急流中心西移偏晚年,南亚高压西缩,贝加尔湖西南侧高压脊增强,南下至华北和河套地区冷空气偏强,且西太平洋副热带高压东撤,冷暖空气在淮河流域交汇,使得华北和河套地区降水减少而淮河流域降水偏多;偏早年情况与偏晚年情况相反。     

Assessment of coastal vulnerability to environmental change in Jiangsu coastal plain

1 IntroductionCoastal areas, with dense population and high urbanization, are highly sensitive to global environmental change. The impacts of coastal environmental changes, such as sea level rise and related disasters exacerbation on socio-economic development of coastal areas, have become a matter of public concern. To study the vulnerable scope and degree of impacts of sea level rise and related exacerbating coastal hazards can provide a scientific basis for lessening the potential losses th…     

基于灯光数据的中国县域城镇建设用地产出效率时空演变特征

本文以灯光密度表征建设用地产出效率,采取KDE、ESDA、SDE等方法对中国县域尺度2000-2015年建设用地产出效率的总体特征、时空演变以及方向分布进行分析,研究发现：① 夜间灯光总亮度与建设用地出产出存在较强的相关关系,说明可用灯光总亮度表征建设用地产出,以灯光密度反映建设用地产出效率具有一定的科学性。② 建设用地产出效率东高西低,持续上升;增长速度西高东低,中部居中,但区域间年均增长率最大相差0.56%,整体较为均衡。③ 虽然建设用地产出效率由2000年的0.008单位灯光/km²持续上升至2015年的0.025单位灯光/km²,但其核密度曲线始终处于中低水平且右侧区间不断扩大,说明中国建设用地产出效率总体水平较低,呈现出中低水平俱乐部收敛的特征。④ 建设用地产出效率的全局 Moran's I指数都大于0,建设用地产出效率存在正向空间分布特征,且其局部空间格局变化较小,存在稳中有动,强中有弱,弱中有强的特点。⑤ 方向分布上,建设用地产出效率的方位角始终在72.420^o与81.066^o之间,说明东北-西南方向为建设用地产出效率的主要方向,且标准差椭圆的主轴与辅轴标准差都有所增加,说明在建设用地产出效率的主要方向与次要方向上都发生了分散现象。