广西佛子冲铅锌矿田矿化蚀变特征及其成矿预测

广西佛子冲铅锌矿矿田位于桂东南博白-岑溪多金属成矿带的中段.矿区围岩蚀变强烈,类型繁多,其中以矽卡岩化、硅化和帘石化与成矿关系最为密切.矿体至围岩明显有矽卡岩化 - 强硅化 - 弱硅化 - 石英、碳酸盐化的蚀变分带特征.作者根据赋矿岩性、矿化蚀变分布、矿体产出特征及相关物探工作,提出六塘 - 龙树垌和牛卫 - 水滴两个找矿预测区.     

模型预测多次波衰减技术及其在莺歌海地区的应用

莺歌海盆地是中国海域新生代主要含油气盆地之一。盆地内超压沉积现象分布广泛,超温超压现象普遍。由于超温超压现象的存在,导致其多次波与有效波在速度上更接近,衰减难度更大。通过合理利用基于波动理论的多次波建模方法并组合其他方法有效衰减了浅水多次波。莺歌海地区的应用实例证明了该方法的有效性,不仅较好地衰减了多次波,提高资料信噪比,同时提高了地震数据的分辨率,改善了资料的波组特征。     

Risk Management for Petroleum Reservoir Production: A Simulation-Based Study of Prediction

We consider numerical solutions of the Darcy and Buckley–Leverett equations for flow in porous media. These solutions depend on a realization of a random field that describes the reservoir permeability. The main content of this paper is to formulate and analyze a probability model for the numerical coarse grid solution error. We explore the extent to which the coarse grid oil production rate is sufficient to predict future oil production rates. We find that very early oil production data is sufficient to reduce the prediction error in oil production by about 30%, relative to the prior probability prediction.     

基于耦合模型的中国能源生产与消费预测及其环境响应(英文)

The paper presents the prediction of total energy production and consumption in all provinces and autonomous regions as well as determination of the variation of gravity center of the energy production, consumption and total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue of China via the energy and environmental quality data from 1978 to 2009 in China by use of GM(1,1) model and gravity center model, based on which the paper also analyzes the dynamic variation in regional difference in energy production, consumption and environmental quality and their relationship. The results are shown as follows. 1) The gravity center of energy production is gradually moving southwestward and the entire movement track approxi-mates to linear variation, indicating that the difference of energy production between the east and west, south and north is narrowing to a certain extent, with the difference between the east and the west narrowing faster than that between the south and the north. 2) The gravity center of energy consumption is moving southwestward with perceptible fluctuation, of which the gravity center position from 2000 to 2005 was relatively stable, with slight annual position variation, indicating that the growth rates of all provinces and autonomous regions are basically the same. 3) The gravity center of the total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue is characterized by fluctuation in longitude and latitude to a certain degree. But, it shows a southwestward trend on the whole. 4) There are common ground and discrepancy in the variation track of the gravity center of the energy production & consumption of China, and the comparative analysis of the gravity center of them and that of total discharge of industrial waste water, gas and residue shows that the environmental quality level is closely associated with the energy production and consumption (especially the energy consumption), indicating that the environment cost in economy of energy is higher in China.     

松潘地区岩金统计成矿予测中泛克立格法的应用

川西北地区是国内重要的岩金普查靶区。本文对松潘地区的地质特征,泛克立格法原理,及在本区的应用情况作了介绍,对主要计算步骤,给出基本结果,对计算获得的有意义异常区,进行地质解释,并将此方法与趋势面分析进行对比。     

塔里木盆地绿洲形成与演变

塔里木盆地的绿洲按形成历史可划分为古绿洲、旧绿洲和新绿洲,它们分别代表绿洲发展演变的三个阶段。本文对绿洲未来演变趋势作了预测,探讨了盆地古绿洲衰亡原因、认为除了风沙、盐碱及河流改道等自然原因外,人类活动引起的地表水资源时空分配发生变化是主要原因。     

2010年北京市流动人口预测

针对北京市流动人口样本数据量小、不连续等特点,本文采用Logistic曲线拟合和等维递补灰色预测理论,预测“十一五”期间北京流动人口的增长情况。首先,通过Logistic曲线拟合与外推,掌握流动人口增长的总趋势;其次,选定不同长度的人口序列以建立多个等维递补灰色模型,检验并分析各种预测结果的合理性与不足;最终确定北京市流动人口增长预测的高、中、低方案。实践表明,灰色等维递补预测法对“小样本”、“贫信息”的人口预测是切实可行的。     

地球磁场对太阳风的加载响应与地震

地磁预报地震的方法越来越多,本文应用加卸载响应比方法,分析山西地区2009—2016年观测的加卸载响应比与山西地区4.0级地震之间的对应关系,初步给出适用于山西地区震例特征的磁异常判别指标。     

基于遗传算法的分类体系在地震预报中的应用探索

采用模似自然界生物进化过程的遗传算法的分类体系,并以首都圈地区为例,利用地震活动性资料的8种时空参数在地震预报中进行了应用探索．通过对1967—1992年间信息的学习演化,获得了20条拥有不同适应度的具有层次结构的地震预报规则集．对首都圈地区中等地震活动的预报规则进行了初步的分析讨论,发现了人们以往难于考虑周全的可能具有重要预报意义的异常组配.应用探索表明：在地震预报研究中应用具有自适应和潜在学习能力的基于遗传算法的分类体系,将可能推动人们对地震前兆及其物理机制的研究和探讨．     

利用IGS星历预报GPS卫星轨道

在动力学轨道拟合以及轨道积分的基础上,提出了基于IGS精密星历的GPS卫星轨道预报方法。该方法首先利用已知的IGS精密星历作为虚拟观测值,采用动力学方法拟合出GPS卫星的初始轨道和动力学参数,然后再通过积分来预报GPS卫星的轨道。主要讨论了基于不同弧段的IGS星历时,该方法对GPS卫星轨道的拟合和预报情况。研究结果显示:对于6 d弧段以内的IGS精密星历,其拟合轨道与IGS精密星历差值的三维RMS值均优于4 cm,随着拟合弧段的增加,拟合残差变大;当利用2～6 d弧段的IGS星历来预报GPS轨道时,大部分卫星第1天、第7天和第30天的三维预报精度可优于0.1 m、3 m和100 m。其中,2d弧段的IGS星历对GPS卫星第1天和第7天的预报结果最好,5 d弧段的IGS星历对GPS卫星第30天的预报结果最好。