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2014年景谷6.6级地震前通海地震台倾斜形变异常响应

通过分析通海地震台垂直摆倾斜观测数据的长期、中期、短临、临震异常,发现2014年10月7日景谷6.6级地震发生前,观测数据曲线年变幅度变小,出现跳跃式变化,在地震发生前4天,NS向逐渐升高、突然降低,变化幅度达179×10^-3",具有长期、短临及临震异常特征。分析认为,通海地震台垂直摆倾斜形变响应数据,较好预示了此次景谷6.6级地震的发生。     

希夏邦马峰冰川粒雪中环境季节变化记录研究

在希夏邦马峰达索普冰川海技７０００ｍ冰雪平台钻取１４ｍ粒雪芯一支。通过对粒雪芯中δ＾１８Ｏ和主要离子浓度的季节变化分析,认识希夏邦马峰地区大气环境的季节变化特征。相关分析和经验正交函数（ＥＯＦ）分析结果表明,达索普粒雪芯内的δ＾１８Ｏ与Ｃａ＾２＋、Ｍｇ＾２＋、ＳＯ４＾２－、ＮＯ３＾－和ＮＨ４＾＋浓度之间正相关显著,而与Ｎａ＾＋、Ｃｌ＾－和Ｋ＾＋浓度之间的关系不明显。ＥＯＦ１代表了以尘埃来源为主的离     

海上风电桩基水平承载力循环衰减二维简化分析

海上风电的桩基在长期循环荷载作用下会引起承载力的衰减。针对软黏土中水平受荷单桩,通过引入累积塑性应变以考虑土体不排水强度的循环弱化,建立二维有限元数值模拟和简化p-y曲线简化方法,以分析水平循环荷载作用后单桩桩侧侧向抗力的衰减弱化。在小数目循环荷载下简化方法与有限元计算结果比较吻合,在此基础上,采用二维简化分析方法得到长期大数目循环荷载下桩侧水平抗力的衰减规律,发现如荷载幅值与初始极限抗力的比值小于土体灵敏度的倒数,单桩在长期水平循环荷载作用下承载力虽有所衰减,但桩基趋于稳定,不会发生破坏。     

Stress State, Seismicity and Subduction Geometries of the Descending Lithosphere Below the Hindukush and Pamir

The paper presents an analysis of spatial distribution of 6600 earthquake events which occurred during the period 1964 to 1999 between latitude 34 to 40°N and longitude 68 to 76°E. This large volume event is reported in the International Seismological Centre (ISC) catalog. In addition to this a total of 248 focal mechanism solutions are considered to derive a generalised predominant stress prevailing in the descending lithosphere below the Hindukush and Pamir regions.

The analysis of spatial distribution shows that the epicentres of the events at shallow level (depth<70 km) are sparsely distributed throughout except for a cluster at the northern end of both the Hindukush and Pamir. The concentration of epicentres at intermediate-depth level between 71 and 170 km below the Hindukush takes a strip-like pattern. It trends along SW-NE, and narrows at the northeastern end of the Hindukush. At deeper level (depth>170 km) the epicentres below the Hindukush are mainly concentrated in a triangular-shaped zone, and the mean points of concentration of the epicentres appear to be shifted towards southwest at increasing depth. The distribution of epicentres at the intermediate and deeper layers of the Pamir is observed to be diffused except a cluster of few events in each layer appears to be shifted towards south-southeast at increasing depth. The distribution of hypocentres changes its concentration from lesser to considerably higher at about 70 km depth, and further takes a minimum at about 170 km depth below the Hindukush and Pamir.

The present study further involves in analysing the composite/group effect of stresses associated with the descending lithosphere below the Hindukush and Pamir after deriving the best-fit generalized predominant directions of stresses. It shows that the intermediate-depth seismic zone below the Hindukush is acted upon by maximum compressive stresses (P axes) from two directions while the deeper-depth zone from three directions, and may convincingly be correlated with the changing shape of the respective seismic zones. Another interesting phenomenon observed here is the change in direction of maximum compressive stresses in clockwise fashion from intermediate to deep seismic zones below the Hindukush. At shallow depths below the Pamir the maximum and minimum (T axes) compressive stresses are acting almost along NNW-SSE and ENE-WSW and are oriented horizontally. T-axes for few events at these depths show almost vertical orientation. The observed down-dip extension is predominantly parallel with the descending lithosphere below the Hindukush. The entire analysis along with the observed scattering of P- and T-axes of some events at intermediate-depths might be indicating a slight contortion of the middle layer below the Hindukush. The spatial distribution of seismicity and the generalised stress pattern of both the regions infer the existence of two-isolated subducting lithosphere. It perhaps has created the eastward expulsion or lateral extrusion of Tibet along the major strike-slip faults like Karakorum, Altyn-Tagh, Kunlun and Red River. Finally, the whole analysis confirms the existence of shield-like continental rigid slab at depths greater than 170 km below the Hindukush.     

Seismic Modelling of Lateral Heterogeneity At the Base of the Mantle

Summary. Results from several recent studies suggest that there are lateral heterogeneities of up to a few per cent in the lowermost 150–200 km of the mantle (Bullen's D " region). Inferred anomaly sizes span the range from less than 50 km to greater than 1000 km.
In this study differences in the velocity structure among regions at the base of the mantle were inferred from an analysis of amplitude ratios of PKPAB and PKPDF for given earthquake-station pairs at distances greater than 155° (Sacks, Snoke & Beach). We distinguish two kinds of regions: A (anomalous) regions in which the mean, median and spread in AB/DF amplitude ratios are significantly higher (> 50 per cent) than for a reference radial earth model and N (normal) regions in which the distribution of the amplitude ratios is as expected.
The AB branch has near-grazing incidence to the core and therefore maximum sensitivity to velocity structure compared to the near-normal incident DF phases. Using an iterative, forward-modelling approach, we have determined general characteristics of the velocity structure for regions at the base of the mantle which can produce amplitude-ratio distributions similar to those for an A region. Agreement between model and data is obtained over the period range from 0.5 s to greater than 10 s using a laterally heterogeneous model for the D " region. the model consists of cells which are 200 km in lateral extent with velocity variations of up to ±1 per cent. This structure is modulated by a region-wide (1000km) perturbation which increases smoothly from zero at the edges of the region to a negative 1 per cent at the centre. Small cells (∼40 km) cannot produce anomalously large amplitude, long-period AB arrivals, and larger cells (∼1000km) cannot match the observed scatter. the ∼200 km scale anomalies could be small-scale convection cells confined to the D " region.     

1954-2005年长江以北地区初霜期变化趋势

采用长江以北地区65个测站1954-2005年秋冬季逐日地面最低温度资料,计算分析长江以北地区初霜出现日期的年代际时空变化特征。结果表明：中国北方地区初霜是由北向南逐渐出现的,初霜发生日期具有明显的年代际变化特征,在20世纪90年代之后,大部分地区初霜日期偏晚的年份逐渐增多。中国北方地区初霜发生日期的早晚与北极涛动的强弱密切相关：当北极涛动处于正位相时,北半球以纬向型环流为主,中国北方大部分地区的初霜期偏晚;反之,当北极涛动处于负位相时,北半球以经向型环流为主,中国北方大部分地区的初霜期偏早。     

Effects of strong lateral discontinuity on ground motion characteristics and aggravation factor

This paper presents the effects of strong lateral discontinuity (SLD) in basins on the ground motion characteristics, differential ground motion (DGM) and aggravation factor (aggravation factor is simply the extra spectral amplification due to complex 2D site effects over the 1D response of the soil column). The seismic responses of open- and closed-basin models with SLD were simulated using SH-wave finite difference algorithm with fourth-order spatial accuracy. Simulated seismic responses, DGM and its spectra revealed that SLD induces Love waves, and the lower cutoff frequency for the same is equal to the fundamental frequency (f₀) of the soil layer. The maximum average aggravation factor (AAF) and DGM were obtained near the edge of open basin and at the centre of closed basin. A decrease of amplitude of Love wave, DGM level and AAF with offset from SLD was observed in an open basin. On the other hand, in closed basin, spatial variation of AAF and DGM level was highly variable. Duration of shaking, AAF and DGM level was more in the closed basin than in an open basin. Increase of DGM level and AAF with decrease of the width of basin was observed.     

Quantifying the Contribution of Track Changes to Interannual Variations of North Atlantic Intense Hurricanes

Previous studies have linked interannual variability of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity in the North Atlantic basin(NA)to Sahelian rainfall,vertical shear of the environmental flow,and relative sea surface temperature(SST).In this study,the contribution of TC track changes to the interannual variations of intense hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin is evaluated through numerical experiments.It is found that that observed interannual variations of the frequency of intense hurricanes during the period 1958–2017 are dynamically consistent with changes in the large-scale ocean/atmosphere environment.Track changes can account for~50%of the interannual variability of intense hurricanes,while no significant difference is found for individual environmental parameters between active and inactive years.The only significant difference between active and inactive years is in the duration of TC intensification in the region east of 60°W.The duration increase is not due to the slow-down of TC translation.In active years,a southeastward shift of the formation location in the region east of 60°W causes TCs to take a westward prevailing track,which allows TCs to have a longer opportunity for intensification.On the other hand,most TCs in inactive years take a recurving track,leading to a shorter duration of intensification.This study suggests that the influence of track changes should be considered to understand the basin-wide intensity changes in the North Atlantic basin on the interannual time scale.     

Response of Static and Cyclic Laterally Loaded Rigid Piles in Sand

An experimental investigation was made into the response of piles in sand subjected to lateral cyclic loading. Seven instrumented model piles tests were conducted. Five tests were conducted under typical magnitude and number of cyclic loading, and two were under static loading. The results were used to deduce modulus of subgrade reaction k and the profile of limiting lateral resistance force per unit length (LFP, p_u profile) in light of closed-form solutions. The study demonstrates a large impact of lateral (cyclic) load level than the number of cycles, a 1.5–2.8 times increase in the modulus k, and a 10% reduction in the p_u due to cyclic loading. The tests confirm the linear correlation between maximum bending moment and the applied lateral load, regardless of the number of cycles.