四川地形扰动对降水分布影响

引入一维加权平均的谱分析方法定量研究四川地形强迫对该区域降水分布的影响。结果表明:纬向地形和冬季降水谱峰锁相于同一波长（475.8 km）,呈共振关系,地形与其他季节降水呈漂移关系,这与经向和纬向上环流变动有关,即冬季纬向环流占主导,纬向地形触发的大气波动对冬季降水策动作用大;夏季降水是各种不同尺度系统相互作用的结果,地形是重要因素之一。经向和纬向地形特征尺度分别为296.8 km和475.8 km,反映了地形强迫的中尺度特征,且纬向地形谱峰比经向大1个数量级,纬向强迫更明显。夏季降水谱峰比冬季大2个数量级,降水系统纬向特征尺度比冬季小约150 km,说明夏季在纬向地形强迫下,降水系统尺度减小的同时其强度大大增加,这在一定程度上可以解释中尺度对流性降水在夏季偏多。四川夏季最大降水位于雅安地区,其地形扰动比四川整体扰动更明显,故产生的降水也更大。夏季降水和经向地形锁相于同一波长（37.1 km）,经向地形对雅安夏季强降水起关键作用。     

山东一次台风龙卷过程灾调及环境和天气雷达特征分析

2018年8月19日受台风“温比亚”影响,山东省临沂市遭受龙卷袭击。通过实地灾情调查,给出了该龙卷的影响范围、灾害分布和强度评估等,综合考虑不同标识物和致灾过程,评估本次龙卷强度为EF3级。分析龙卷发生的环境和天气雷达特征,结果表明：龙卷发生在低抬升凝结高度(≤300 m)、强低层垂直风切变(≥18×10^-3s^-1)、强相对风暴螺旋度(≥350 m²/s²)和较低对流有效位能(≤400 J/kg)的有利环境条件下;龙卷超级单体嵌于台风右侧螺旋雨带内,龙卷发生在中气旋与风暴后侧下沉气流区相接一侧,与龙卷涡旋特征位置对应;龙卷及地时中气旋向下延伸加强,同时风暴顶及单体质心迅速下降;若探测到低层中等强度中气旋时应发布龙卷预警,则此次过程的龙卷预警时间提前量为15～20 min。     

海洋水色遥感图像伪彩化方法的研究

分析了国内外有关信息伪彩化应用的研究现状后认为:海洋水色遥感图像的伪彩化应该是基于任务的,也只有基于任务的伪彩化才能保证伪彩化结果的准确性。基于任务的伪彩化要求必须从伪彩化相关的3个对象(信息、色彩与用户)所具有的特点出发,确定有针对性的伪彩化实现方案。在综合考虑了伪彩化3个对象的特点后,提出海洋水色遥感图像的伪彩化可以分3种方案进行伪彩化设计,每种方案都有自己的针对性、使用范围及局限性。方案1是针对对海洋信息作定量分析而提出来的,主要用于揭示海洋信息中的高频快变成分,同时兼顾揭示信息中的低频成分,被分析信息的波动幅度不大。方案2是针对对海洋信息作定性分析而提出的,不强求对信息量的准确量化,更多关心的是海洋信息相互间的关系,因此要求色标具有很高的信息表现力。方案3是方案1及方案2的补充,方案1具有定量能力,但总色差较小,对信息的解析能力有限,方案2虽然有较大的总色差,具有较好的解析能力,但只有定性能力,方案3将在保持局部区域的定量特点外,扩大整体的总色差。在伪彩化或可视化设计中,主要是关心数据信息中最引人注意的部分也即突出最重要的部分,在大多数情况下,用户对数据信息的低端及高端更感兴趣,这也是方案3中双反色调色板设计及使用的基础。3种方案的针对性设计将方便伪彩化在水色遥感信息分析中的准确、快捷使用。文章最后通过例子证明,在对海洋水色遥感信息的分析和研究中,选择3个方案中的1种或几种作适当的调整,海洋水色遥感信息可以得到较好的诠释。     

基于Barnes滤波原理的降水场客观分析及尺度分离

基于Barnes滤波原理（又称高斯加权客观分析）,在进行网格点插值的同时,通过选择适当的滤波参数C、G滤去原始场中的短波噪音,使分析结果平稳光滑;另外可通过它构成一带通滤波器,根据实际需要分离出影响天气过程的各种次天气尺度,达到尺度分离的目的。以全国160个国家基准代表站1954—2006年共53a的年平均降水场为例作实例分析,并同用Grads内插函数（Oacres函数）、九点平滑函数（Smth9函数）的绘图结果进行对比分析,结果表明客观分析结果同Grads内插平滑分析结果基本相似,都能反映出我国53a年平均降水场从东南向西北逐渐递减的趋势且与实际情况相符,降水场高值中心位于长江流域及以南的华南等地区,低值中心位于黄河流域以北的广大西部地区。取不同的参数C和G得到的尺度分离后的带通滤波值,既抑止了长波,又抑制了短波,达到较好的尺度分离效果。     

New patterns of urban development in China

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中国省域尺度17部门资本存量的时空特征分析

随着灾害强度、频率以及承灾体暴露的增加,自然灾害造成的损失日益严重。资本存量作为承灾体的经济暴露指标之一,是灾害损失评估的前提和基础。针对目前中国缺乏省域尺度长时间序列的经济部门分类的资本存量数据基础,论文通过永续盘存法,建立了2003—2015年中国大陆31省17部门的资本存量数据库,并分析其时空特征。结果显示：① 全国总资本存量与灾害直接损失的年际变化均呈增加趋势。省域尺度上,通过相关性分析显示,在99%置信度水平上,两者呈显著正相关(r=0.3)。② 时间上,各省17部门资本存量基本也呈增加趋势,但增速不同。在各部门增速最快的省份中,黑龙江省的居民服务、修理和其他服务业增速最快,增长约454.3倍;其次是青海省的租赁和商务服务业(398.3倍)、江苏省的金融业(295.1倍)、安徽省的科学研究和技术服务业(125.1倍)等。③ 空间上,2015年各省17部门资本存量最多的前4个部门分别是房地产业,工业,交通运输、仓储和邮政业,水利、环境和公共设施管理业,占比均在60%以上;且这4个部门资本存量暴露最多的省份是江苏省和广东省。该结果有助于从时空角度了解各省各部门资本存量暴露情况,为各省灾害风险管理者的防灾减灾工作提供重要的参考价值。     

黄河下游沿岸农业景观中蜘蛛对非农生境的响应（英文）

Non-crop habitats have been suggested to impact local biodiversity significantly in agricultural landscapes. However, there have been few studies of the effects of less-focused non-crop habitats(orchard, wetland, pit and ditch) on variation of spider abundance. In this study, spiders in 30 woodlands were captured using pitfall traps in Fengqiu County, China, and the effects of local and landscape variations at different scales(50 m, 100 m, 200 m, 350 m and 500 m) on spider abundance were analysed. The most important variation that influenced spider abundance at the 500 m scale was the less-focused non-crop habitat(LNH) cover, and 10% was an appropriate proportion of LNH cover to sustain high level of spider diversity in the investigated landscape. Non-metric multidimensional scaling analyses revealed that there were significant differences in the spider composition among the high, medium and low LNH coverage. Based on indicator species analysis, different spider species were associated with landscapes with different levels of LNH cover. Lycosidae, which accounted for 48% of the total specimens, preferred woodland habitats neighbouring areas with high LNH cover. Compared with woodland habitats, LNH provided more diverse food sources and habitat to sustain more spider species in the study area. Furthermore, linear elements composed of vegetation, such as pits and ditches, may prevent agricultural intensification by enhancing landscape connectivity and providing habitats for different spiders. Our findings may provide a theoretical basis for biodiversity conservation in agro-ecosystems and top-down control of pests.     

Faith and Doubt in an American Working Landscape: The Importance of Scale,Work, and Place in Rural Development Planning

The term “working landscape” (WL) is increasingly used by American planners and policy makers to describe the rural places and livelihoods they aim to shape. This paper draws from a mixed-methods study of WL language as a collective action frame in the state of Vermont, where WL has been formalized into policy. Natural resource leaders and professionals share a common definition of WL that is supported by four key beliefs. However, interviews conducted in two representative farming communities suggest that landuse practitioners have not adopted WL language, and in some cases are skeptical of its meaning. The analysis explores potential explanations for the failure of the WL collective action frame to resonate across scales. The paper argues for a bottom-up planning approach that produces working landscapes policies that allow for diverse forms of work and accommodate the specificities of place.     

基于多源遥感数据的区域生态系统服务价值年际动态监测 ——以中原城市群为例

通过对多源遥感数据在生态系统服务价值（ESV）遥感模型中的尺度效应分析,选择满足最佳空间分辨率和长时间序列的遥感数据,对中原城市群区域2001~2013年的ESV实现了逐年逐像元水平的动态监测。结果表明：该区应用于遥感模型输入数据的最适空间分辨率为30~1 000 m,相对于30 m尺度,其他尺度估算结果的相对偏差均小于0.4%;结合年际动态监测的需求,选择了MODIS数据产品（空间分辨率500 m,时间尺度1 a）作为遥感模型的最佳数据源;研究区ESV总值在研究期内整体上呈显著增长趋势,增速约为8.6亿元/a,但在持续增长过程中经历了3次波动,且表现得越来越剧烈;在空间上,研究区ESV多年均值呈现出明显的不均衡性,表现为从西南向东部递减的趋势。研究表明此方法简单易行,初步实现了区域ESV年际动态监测遥感模型的准业务化运行。     

Water Cooperation Priorities in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin Based on Cooperative Events Since the Mekong River Commission Establishment

The Lancang-Mekong River has attracted much attention from researchers, but the cooperation on water issues in this river basin has been limited, even after the establishment of the Mekong River Commission(MRC). Cooperation on water resources has been determined as one of the key priority areas in the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism, but there are no details of targets. In order to establish the priorities of water cooperation under the mechanism, we adopted nine categories to classify the objectives of 87 water cooperation events based on the ‘Lancang-Mekong Water Cooperative Events Database' from 1995 to 2015. Based on the occurrence of cooperative events, cooperative objectives, cooperative scales, and approaches to cooperation, we conducted statistical, correlation, and text analyses. Our analyses indicated the following results: under the impact of economic conditions inside and outside the river basin, full cooperation appeared more difficult than bilateral and multilateral cooperation. Each of the partners adopted different preferences for cooperation targets. Cooperation with more definite objectives was easier to establish than cooperation with broader and more complex objectives. The potential objectives for water cooperation were navigation, hydropower, joint management, data sharing, flood control and water use. Because hydropower development is controversial, and because water cooperation is avoided by most existing regional cooperation mechanisms due to its complexity, we suggest the following priority areas for water cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin. 1) Navigation and flood control/drought relief are attractive objectives for all the riparian countries across the whole watershed. 2) Data sharing should be a priority for cooperation in the watershed due to its laying the foundation for the equitable and reasonable utilization of transboundary waters. 3) Hydropower is an objective best implemented mainly through bilateral cooperation, and on tributaries.