苯并噻吩系列化合物的成因模拟及其地球化学意义

在硫和β胡萝卜素反应产物中有丰富的苯并噻吩系列化合物,在硫与饱和链状化合物反应产物中既有噻吩系列化合物也有苯并噻吩系列化合物。所以推断苯并噻吩系列是硫作用于噻吩系列或含侧链的苯而形成的。噻吩系列和苯并噻吩系列的相对含量可以指示成熟度:在沉积条件相同的前提下,前者多后者少指示成熟度低,反之则指示成熟度高。     

华北地块北缘AuAgCuPbZn成矿规律

根据研究区成矿地质背景,分析了地层、构造、岩浆岩等因素对华北地块北缘Au、Ag、Cu、Pb、Zn成矿的控制作用,总结了矿床的时、空分布,共生组合特点,提出了成矿规律.     

Lessons learnt from checking the quality of openly accessible river flow data worldwide

ABSTRACT

Advances in open data science serve large-scale model developments and, subsequently, hydroclimate services. Local river flow observations are key in hydrology but data sharing remains limited due to unclear quality, or to political, economic or infrastructure reasons. This paper provides methods for quality checking openly accessible river-flow time series. Availability, outliers, homogeneity and trends were assessed in 21 586 time series from 13 data providers worldwide. We found a decrease in data availability since the 1980s, scarce open information in southern Asia, the Middle East and North and Central Africa, and significant river-flow trends in Africa, Australia, southwest Europe and Southeast Asia. We distinguish numerical outliers from high-flow peaks, and integrate all investigated quality characteristics in a composite indicator. We stress the need to maintain existing gauging networks, and highlight opportunities in extending existing global databases, understanding drivers for trends and inhomogeneity, and in innovative acquisition methods in data-scarce regions.     

A two-stage time series model for monthly hydrological projections under climate change in the Lim River basin (southeast Europe)

ABSTRACT

Climate change projections of precipitation and temperature suggest that Serbia could be one of the most affected regions in southeastern Europe. To prepare adaptation measures, the impact of climate changes on water resources needs to be assessed. Pilot research is carried out for the Lim River basin, in southeastern Europe, to predict monthly flows under different climate scenarios. For estimation of future water availability, an alternative approach of developing a deterministic-stochastic time series model is chosen. The proposed two-stage time series model consists of several components: trend, long-term periodicity, seasonality and the stochastic component. The latter is based on a transfer function model with two input variables, precipitation and temperature, as climatic drivers. The Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency for the observed period 1950–2012 is 0.829. The model is applied for the long-term hydrological prediction under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) emissions scenarios for the future time frame 2013–2070.     

Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system coupled with shuffled frog leaping algorithm for predicting river streamflow time series

ABSTRACT

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a key role in catchment water management and water resources system planning. To improve the prediction accuracy, one needs to strive to develop a reliable and accurate forecasting model for streamflow. In this study, the novel combination of the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model with the shuffled frog-leaping algorithm (SFLA) is proposed. Historical streamflow data of two different rivers were collected to examine the performance of the proposed model. To evaluate the performance of the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model, six different scenarios for the model input–output architecture were investigated. The results show that the proposed ANFIS-SFLA model (R² = 0.88; NS = 0.88; RMSE = 142.30 (m³/s); MAE = 88.94 (m³/s); MAPE = 35.19%) significantly improved the forecasting accuracy and outperformed the classic ANFIS model (R² = 0.83; NS = 0.83; RMSE = 167.81; MAE = 115.83 (m³/s); MAPE = 45.97%). The proposed model could be generalized and applied in different rivers worldwide.     

Comparative hydrogeology – reference analysis of groundwater dynamics from neighbouring observation wells

ABSTRACT

Groundwater level fluctuations are caused by spatial and temporal superposition of processes within and outside the aquifer system. Most of the subsurface processes are usually observed on a small scale. Upscaling to the regional scale, as required for future climate change scenarios, is difficult due to data scarcity and increasing complexity. In contrast to the limited availability of system characteristics, high-resolution data records of groundwater hydrographs are more generally available. Exploiting the information contained in these records should thus be a priority for analysis of the chronical lack of data describing groundwater system characteristics. This study analyses the applicability of 63 indices derived from daily hydrographs to quantify different dynamics of groundwater levels in unconfined gravel aquifers from three groundwater regions (Bavaria, Germany). Based on the results of two different skill tests, the study aids index selection for different dynamic components of groundwater hydrographs.     

Detecting patterns of climate change in long-term forecasts of marine environmental parameters

ABSTRACT

Forecasting environmental parameters in the distant future requires complex modelling and large computational resources. Due to the sensitivity and complexity of forecast models, long-term parameter forecasts (e.g. up to 2100) are uncommon and only produced by a few organisations, in heterogeneous formats and based on different assumptions of greenhouse gases emissions. However, data mining techniques can be used to coerce the data to a uniform time and spatial representation, which facilitates their use in many applications. In this paper, streams of big data coming from AquaMaps and NASA collections of 126 long-term forecasts of nine types of environmental parameters are processed through a cloud computing platform in order to (i) standardise and harmonise the data representations, (ii) produce intermediate scenarios and new informative parameters, and (iii) align all sets on a common time and spatial resolution. Time series cross-correlation applied to these aligned datasets reveals patterns of climate change and similarities between parameter trends in 10 marine areas. Our results highlight that (i) the Mediterranean Sea may have a standalone ‘response’ to climate change with respect to other areas, (ii) the Poles are most representative of global forecasted change, and (iii) the trends are generally alarming for most oceans.     

抚顺地区砬子山杂岩体地质特征及成因

砬子山岩体出露于华北地台抚顺—清原古隆起带与吉黑地槽的相接部位。砬子山岩体是由石英闪长岩、似斑状石英二长岩、二长花岗岩和碱长花岗岩构成的杂岩体。4个岩性不同的侵入体构成连续的中-酸性钙碱岩石序列。岩体的地质特征、地球化学特征表明4个侵入体是同源岩浆不同演化阶段的产物。岩浆的演化机制为深部岩浆分异作用,岩浆则是来源于下部地壳。     

On smoothing techniques for the removal of periodic noise of known period

This paper is concerned with the analysis of the linear modely(n)=X(n)+S(n)+(n) for the data sequencey(n) (n=1, 2, ..., N) whereX={x _IJ} is a knownJ × M matrix of full rankM. Here, the(n) are unknown vectors, which we wish to estimate for eachn; S(n) (n=1, 2, ..., N) is a periodic component (which we wish to estimate or remove) superimposed on the linear structureX(n); and(n) is an error vector which is specified as having zero expectation (with possible further properties). Such models commonly occur in geophysical data analysis.Modified from Technical Report No. 33, Computer Centre, The Australian National University.     

Convergence of Liapunov Series for Maclaurin Ellipsoids

According to the classical theory of equilibrium figures surfaces of equal density, potential and pressure concur (let call them isobars). Isobars may be represented by means of Liapunov power series in small parameter q, up to the first approximation coincident with centrifugal to gravitational force ratio on the equator. A. M. Liapunov has proved the existence of the universal convergence radius q : above mentioned series converge for all bodies if q < q . Using Liapunov's algorithm and symbolic calculus tools we have calculated q = 0.000370916. Evidently, convergence radius q ₀ may be much greater in non-pathological situations. We plan to examine several simplest cases. In the present paper, we find q ₀ for homogeneous liquid. The convergence radius turns out to be unexpectedly large coinciding with the upper boundary value q ₀ = 0.337 for Maclaurin ellipsoids.