The separation of the influence of nutrients and climate on the varve time-series of baldeggersee, Switzerland

The varve data-set from a freeze-core taken in the deepest part of Baldeggersee was subjected to different multivariate statistical analyses in order to estimate the amount of variance in the varve thickness measures explicable by past climate and by the trophic state of the lake. A comparison of two different time-periods (1902 to1992 versus 1920 to 1980) revealed that the lake restoration programme since 1982 has had a significant impact on the formation of the seasonal layers. Results of the partitioning of the variance in the varve thickness measures showed that about two thirds of the variance are unexplained by a climate and trophic state model and that trophic state explains 6%, whereas climate accounts for about 28% of the variance before the effect of lake restoration had a strong impact on the varves. Among the climate parameters the amount of annual precipitation is a strong predictor for explaining the thickness of both dark layer and total couplet thickness, whereas summer precipitation is important for the thickness of the light layer.     

广西中短期极端温度客观预报方法研究

利用欧洲中心(ECMWF)数值预报产品和常规资料,应用MOS预报方法和多元线性回归技术,研究建立了广西90个站1~7d的最高、最低温度预报方程,试报检验效果较好,预报结果在大多数情况下是可用的或是可参考的,为业务提供了有效的省级客观预报指导产品,对误差特点进行了分析并提出了改进方法。     

向心扩张指数构建及其在郑州都市圈城镇空间扩张中的应用

探究城镇空间扩张的方向性及其时间变化特征,能够反映都市圈发展过程中核心城市与边缘地区空间关联的动态过程,为制定都市圈发展的相关政策提供科学依据。本文从都市圈的核心城市与边缘地区相互关联的视角,借鉴物理学中力的分解原理,构建了同时兼顾扩张强度和方向性的向心扩张指数CEI,并以郑州都市圈为对象,采用2000—2018年30 m分辨率的全球人造不透水面数据产品GAIA,分析了建设用地扩张的总体数量和占比变化、动态度及强度变化、以及空间方向性变化等特征,进一步应用多元逻辑回归模型,揭示了影响城镇空间扩张向心性的关键因素。结果表明：(1)向心扩张指数CEI为揭示都市圈核心城市对边缘地区的辐射带动作用提供方法支撑,能够定量刻画边缘地区朝向核心城市的发展趋势;(2)在郑州都市圈近20年的快速扩张过程中,尽管各区县市的DEI指数和CEI指数随时间而增减波动,但郑州都市圈总体呈现“核心—边缘”发展模式,除个别地级市中心城区及其下辖县以外,多数区县市的向心性显著且随时间增强,郑州市中心城区对于边缘地区具有显著的辐射带动作用;(3)核心城市与边缘地区的人均GDP差异及城镇化率差异是影响边缘地区向心扩张的重要...     

金塔绿洲风场与温湿场特征的数值模拟

使用美国NCAR新版MM5V3.6非静力平衡模式,采用三重嵌套的降尺度方法,模拟研究了甘肃河西走廊金塔绿洲风场与温湿场特征。结果表明:由于绿洲的存在,绿洲沙漠系统产生的次级环流对局地环流有一定影响;平流作用将沙漠中的干热空气送向绿洲,绿洲近地层会出现逆温,感热向地表输送;沙漠上由于临近绿洲的水汽平流作用,上层大气湿度比低层更大,这就是逆湿现象。     

空间软数据及其插值方法研究进展

由于对地观测技术的迅速发展,空间数据的种类和数量增长迅猛,由空间数据反演得到的各种信息日趋膨胀,这些反演结果中的信息不少以软数据的形式出现。在实际应用中,这些软数据往往与空间插值的目标变量具有一定的相关性,甚至成为控制目标变量空间分布特征的重要因素。然而,由于这些数据通常表示为非数值形式,在计算和处理上存在着一定困难,以致被传统的插值方法所忽视,从而造成信息浪费。近来出现的空间软插值方法是一种利用空间软数据作为辅助信息并以改善插值效果的方法,能够较好的处理并利用软数据所隐含的信息,具有较好的应用发展前景。本文根据空间软数据的特点及其分类,系统综述了空间软插值方法及其应用领域。首先分析了空间数据软硬性质的根本区别,论述了软数据的分类和“硬化”方法,然后介绍空间插值模型中对空间软数据的集成方法和原理,最后对空间软插值方法及其应用研究领域进行了展望。     

Method of Data Reduction and Uncertainty Estimation for Platinum-Group Element Data Using Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry

A data reduction method is described for determining platinum-group element (PGE) abundances by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) using external calibration or the method of standard addition. Gravimetric measurement of volumes, the analysis of reference materials and the use of procedural blanks were all used to minimise systematic errors. Internal standards were used to correct for instrument drift. A linear least squares regression model was used to calculate concentrations from drift-corrected counts per second (cps). Furthermore, mathematical manipulations also contribute to the uncertainty estimates of a procedure. Typical uncertainty estimate calculations for ICP-MS data manipulations involve: (1) Carrying standard deviations from the raw cps through the data reduction or (2) calculating a standard deviation from multiple final concentration calculations. It is demonstrated that method 2 may underestimate the uncertainty estimate of the calculated data. Methods 1 and 2 do not typically include an uncertainty estimate component from a regression model. As such models contribute to the uncertainty estimates affecting the calculated data, an uncertainty estimate component from the regression must be included in any final error calculations. Confidence intervals are used to account for uncertainty estimates from the regression model. These confidence intervals are simpler to calculate than uncertainty estimates from method 1, for example. The data reduction and uncertainty estimation method described here addresses problems of reporting PGE data from an article in the literature and addresses both precision and accuracy. The method can be applied to any analytical technique where drift corrections or regression models are used.     

基于正交设计的复杂坝基弹塑性力学参数反演

复杂坝基弹塑性力学参数反演的计算工作量直接取决于采用何种优化方法。根据大坝在运行期的实测资料，运用有限元正交数值试验、回归分析和优化相结合的方法，反演了坝基岩体的弹塑性力学参数。实例研究表明了该方法的有效性和实用性。     

一种新的统计回归模型及其建模方案

根据经典门限自回归模型的基本思想,引入半截多项式变换,导出了一种新的统计回归模型,并提出了相应的一整套建模方案。这种模型和建模方案的特点是:（1）解决了统计回归分析中逐段线性化模型的检验问题;（2）在确定统计回归模型中各待估参数和变量——包括门限变量、门限值、阶数、时滞和回归系数时显得十分方便、快捷。试验结果表明,根据此方案建立的统计回归模型具有较高的拟合和预报精度,同时具有良好的稳定性。