暴雨洪涝淹没模型在洪灾损失评估中的应用

为了开展客观定量的暴雨洪涝灾害评估,探讨了基于暴雨洪涝淹没模型的暴雨洪涝灾害损失评估业务流程,其核心环节有两部分：估算因降水造成的淹没范围和建立适用的经济损失评估模型。其中暴雨洪涝淹没模型以最大坡降算法和曼宁公式计算暴雨洪涝汇流过程,通过给定汇流时间得到研究区域的淹没面积和水深;经济损失评估模型由直接经济损失和间接经济损失构成,直接经济损失由淹没范围内各类财产的价值乘以其相应的损失率得到。以武汉市江夏区2010年7月一次暴雨洪涝灾害过程为例给出了整个评估流程的实现过程,结果表明基于暴雨洪涝淹没模型的洪涝灾害损失评估业务流程物理意义清楚,表达了暴雨-径流-洪涝灾害全过程,可用以提高洪涝灾害影响评估的定量化程度,同时也为暴雨洪涝风险管理提供一定的依据。     

青海玉树Ms7.1级地震同震地表破裂构造

分析了青海玉树Ms7.1级地震中形成的同震地表破裂分布与构造特征。本次地震造成的地表破裂长达46km,地震造成240cm的最大相对水平走滑错动量,最大垂直错动量60cm。地表破裂所经之处可看到原有断层新近活动的明显迹线。依次分析了按空间尺度划分的4个层次破裂的走向变化、同级破裂排列、破裂末端变化等构造特征。Ⅰ级破裂作为本次地震产生的整个破裂带,总体走向119°,由3段自然分开、左阶斜列的Ⅱ级破裂组成。3段Ⅱ级破裂自NW向SE依次为隆宝镇段、结古镇段和禅古寺段,破裂性质总体以左旋走滑为主,各段略有不同。各Ⅱ级破裂带内部,分别由若干Ⅲ级破裂段落组成,总体呈现右阶斜列排列模式。Ⅲ级破裂本身由一系列简单的Ⅳ级破裂雁列或羽列右阶斜列构成。不同层次的地表破裂具有简单剪切构造带的变形特征,共识别出R、R’、Y、T和P五组基本破裂面。其初始破裂面展布特征可以用库伦破裂准则来解释,其中岩土体材料的内摩擦角大致为26~44°。各级破裂端部出现分叉、转向及逐渐消失等变形特征。     

室内水平电渗排水试验研究

根据多次室内试验,大致掌握了不同电势梯度下非饱和黏性土的水平电渗排水规律,从电渗排水量、排水速率、土体电阻、能量消耗、电渗透系数、耗能系数等方面对电渗进行曲线分析,通过分析大致判断电渗排水的终止条件,可以对未来电渗法的实际操作给出一定的理论依据.试验结果表明:随着通电时间的增加,土体的电阻增大,其电流减小,导致电渗排水的速率降低,出于节能的考虑,可以在电渗末期停止通电,这样做既节能又有利于电渗排水的效果.     

中国东部浅水湖泊参照状态确定的非参数方法

根据中国东部浅水湖泊受人类活动影响较严重的情况,将季节分解的非参数局部线性回归模型、频率分析和几何分块自助法有机结合,提出了一种基于非参数方法的湖泊参照状态确定的新方法。该方法首先将季节分解模型用于湖泊营养盐及其响应物的观测值,选取出适合用于推断参照状态的时间段;其次使用频率分析法分析此时间段内的观测值,并给出湖泊总氮、总磷和叶绿素a的参照状态值;最后用几何分块自助法给出各自的置信区间。该方法能有效克服前人提出方法的缺点。以太湖为例,采用该方法推断了参照状态浓度,总氮为0.78mg/L,总磷为0.030mg/L,叶绿素a为2.63μg/L;给出相应的95%置信区间分别为0.57~0.83mg/L、0.025~0.046mg/L和1.86~2.65μg/L。该方法也可适用受人类活动影响较大的中国东部其他浅水湖泊。     

Comparing the performance of a 2‐D finite element and a 2‐D finite volume model of floodplain inundation using airborne SAR imagery

The performances of a finite volume model (SFV) and finite element model (TELEMAC‐2D) in reproducing inundation on a 16 km reach of the river Severn, United Kingdom, are compared. Predicted inundation extents are compared with 4 airborne synthetic aperture radar images of a major flood event in November 2000, and these are used to calibrate 2 values of Manning's n for the channel and floodplain. The four images are shown to have different capacities to constrain roughness parameters, with the image acquired at low flow rate doing better in determining these parameters than the image acquired at approximately peak flow. This is assigned to the valley filling nature of the flood and the associated insensitivity of flood extent to changes in water level. The level of skill demonstrated by the models, when compared with inundation derived using a horizontal water free surface, also increases as flow rate drops. The two models show markedly different behaviours to the calibration process, with TELEMAC showing less sensitivity and lower optimum values for Manning's n than SFV. When the models are used in predictive mode, calibrated against one image and predicting another, SFV performs better than TELEMAC. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recent TIMS dating results from British Late Pleistocene vertebrate faunal localities: context and interpretation

New TIMS dates from British sites underpin and extend the growing model of mammalian faunal history during the Late Pleistocene. The sequence of British faunas during the three successive warm phases of MIS 5 presents a challenging model in which the mammal faunas of the first two temperate phases, 5e and 5c is dominated by species of a classically interglacial character, while that of the final phase, sub‐stage 5a, is dominated by bison and reindeer. This we see as the ‘cold fauna’ appearing in Britain during the cool isotope sub‐stage 5b and subsequently isolated by the rising sea level of isotope sub‐stage 5a. All these three faunas are true island faunas. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The application of integrated urban inundation model in Republic of Korea

In urban areas with a high building density, features such as roads, buildings and river dykes significantly affect flow dynamics and flood propagation. This should therefore be accounted for in the model set‐up. While 2D hydraulic models of densely urban areas are at the forefront of current research into flood inundation mechanisms, these models are constrained by inadequate parameters of topography and insufficient data. In order to solve these problems, topographic information obtained from digital elevation model (DEM) is directly programmed into the urban inundation model for a densely urban area, without exchanging the input data. In this paper, the extraction of building area is described using a tight coupling approach within a GIS environment, and its influence on the extent of flood inundation with a high building density is estimated. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Unstructured grid generation using LiDAR data for urban flood inundation modelling

Inundation disasters, caused by sudden water level rise or rapid flow, occur frequently in various parts of the world. Such catastrophes strike not only in thinly populated flood plains or farmland but also in highly populated villages or urban areas. Inundation of the populated areas causes severe damage to the economy, injury, and loss of life; therefore, a proper management scheme for the disaster has to be developed. To predict and manage such adversity, an understanding of the dynamic processes of inundation flow is necessary because risk estimation is performed based on inundation flow information. In this study, we developed a comprehensive method to conduct detailed inundation flow simulations for a populated area with quite complex topographical features using LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data. Detailed geospatial information including the location and shape of each building was extracted from the LiDAR data and used for the grid generation. The developed approach can distinguish buildings from vegetation and treat them differently in the flow model. With this method, a fine unstructured grid can be generated representing the complicated urban land features precisely without exhausting labour for data preparation. The accuracy of the generated grid with different grid spacing and grid type is discussed and the optimal range of grid spacing for direct representation of urban topography is investigated. The developed method is applied to the estimation of inundation flows, which occurred in the basin of the Shin‐minato River. A detailed inundation flow structure is represented by the flow model, and the flow characteristics with respect to topographic features are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

14,000 Years of Sediment, Vegetation, and Water-Level Changes at the Makepeace Cedar Swamp, Southeastern Massachusetts

Data from a transect of four cores collected in the Makepeace Cedar Swamp, near Carver, Massachusetts, record past changes in deposition, vegetation, and water level. Time series of palynological data provide a 14,000-yr record of regional and local vegetation development, a means for biostratigraphic correlation and dating, and information about changes in water level. Differences in records among cores in the basin show that water level decreased at least 1.5 m between 10,800 and 9700 cal yr B.P., after which sediment accumulation was slow and intermittent across the basin for about 1700 yr. Between 8000 and 5600 cal yr B.P., water level rose 2.0 m, after which slow peat accumulation indicates a low stand about the time of the hemlock decline at 5300 ± 200 cal yr B.P. Dry conditions may have continued after this time, but by 3200 cal yr B.P., the onset of peat accumulation in shallow cores indicates that water level had risen to close to its highest postglacial level, where it is today. Peat has accumulated across the whole basin since 3200 cal yr B.P. Data from Makepeace and the Pequot Cedar Swamp, near Ledyard, Connecticut, indicate an early Holocene dry interval in southern New England that began 11,500 yr ago near the end of the Younger Dryas interval. The dry conditions prevailed between 10,800 and 8000 cal yr B.P. and coincide with the arrival and later rise to dominance of white pine trees (Pinus strobus) both regionally and near the basins. Our results indicate a climatic cause for the “pine period” in New England.     

Optimal use of high‐resolution topographic data in flood inundation models

In this paper we explore the optimum assimilation of high‐resolution data into numerical models using the example of topographic data provision for flood inundation simulation. First, we explore problems with current assimilation methods in which numerical grids are generated independent of topography. These include possible loss of significant length scales of topographic information, poor representation of the original surface and data redundancy. These are resolved through the development of a processing chain consisting of: (i) assessment of significant length scales of variation in the input data sets; (ii) determination of significant points within the data set; (iii) translation of these into a conforming model discretization that preserves solution quality for a given numerical solver; and (iv) incorporation of otherwise redundant sub‐grid data into the model in a computationally efficient manner. This processing chain is used to develop an optimal finite element discretization for a 12 km reach of the River Stour in Dorset, UK, for which a high‐resolution topographic data set derived from airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) was available. For this reach, three simulations of a 1 in 4 year flood event were conducted: a control simulation with a mesh developed independent of topography, a simulation with a topographically optimum mesh, and a further simulation with the topographically optimum mesh incorporating the sub‐grid topographic data within a correction algorithm for dynamic wetting and drying in fixed grid models. The topographically optimum model is shown to represent better the ‘raw’ topographic data set and that differences between this surface and the control are hydraulically significant. Incorporation of sub‐grid topographic data has a less marked impact than getting the explicit hydraulic calculation correct, but still leads to important differences in model behaviour. The paper highlights the need for better validation data capable of discriminating between these competing approaches and begins to indicate what the characteristics of such a data set should be. More generally, the techniques developed here should prove useful for any data set where the resolution exceeds that of the model in which it is to be used. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.