On the effect of the sampling frequency of sea level measurements on return period estimate of extremes—Southern European examples

Estimates of extreme sea levels and return periods have been based mainly on hourly sampling rates. Technological development has enabled the sampling rates to increase and sampling rates of 5–10 min are becoming increasingly common. In this paper we explore the relationship between extreme sea levels and estimated return periods based on hourly and shorter sampling periods in three tide-gauges one at the Atlantic coasts of Spain (Coruña), one in the western Mediterranean (Malaga) and one in the N. Adriatic (Trieste). Significant differences of several centimetres are found in the hourly and 5 min extremes. These reflect in significant underestimation of the 50-year return levels which in Trieste reach 38 cm. A theoretical relationship between the high and the low sampling rate of extremes is also tested. Thus updated 50-year return levels for the Mediterranean and the coasts of the Iberian peninsula are produced assuming that the differences identified in the various stations generalise to other tide-gauge (hourly) records for which hourly values have been analysed earlier.     

海平面上升的生态损失评估——以深圳市蛇口半岛为例

受全球变暖和人类活动的影响,全球海平面上升威胁海岸带社会经济的可持续发展,已成为各国政府和科学研究关注的焦点。在总结前人研究成果的基础上,本文对区域海平面上升的生态损失评估进行了初步探索。以深圳市蛇口半岛为研究区,预测研究区2100年相对海平面上升幅度,评估海平面上升对风暴潮、土地淹没的影响以及造成的生态价值损失。研究结果表明:(1)风暴潮加剧。2100年相对海平面上升1m,100年一遇最高潮位重现期减为小于10年一遇。海平面上升后50年一遇和100年一遇最高潮位分别为3m和3.3m,威胁沿岸工程设施安全;(2)淹没沿岸土地。研究区内4816.2ha土地受到淹没威胁,占研究区面积的16.6%,其中以建设用地和养殖水域为主,分别占淹没区面积的近60%和30%,面临巨额经济损失;(3)生态价值损失在不同重现期潮位下分别达到1966.55万元/a、4472.92万元/a和5052.83万元/a,地均价值损失分别占深圳市地均GDP(2000年计价)的0.8%,1.1%和1.2%,使深圳市地均GDP(2000年计价)存在约一个百分点的潜在损失。     

Estimation of uncertainty propagation in flood inundation mapping using a 1‐D hydraulic model

A need for more accurate flood inundation maps has recently arisen because of the increasing frequency and extremity of flood events. The accuracy of flood inundation maps is determined by the uncertainty propagated from all of the variables involved in the overall process of flood inundation modelling. Despite our advanced understanding of flood progression, it is impossible to eliminate the uncertainty because of the constraints involving cost, time, knowledge, and technology. Nevertheless, uncertainty analysis in flood inundation mapping can provide useful information for flood risk management. The twin objectives of this study were firstly to estimate the propagated uncertainty rates of key variables in flood inundation mapping by using the first‐order approximation method and secondly to evaluate the relative sensitivities of the model variables by using the Hornberger–Spear–Young (HSY) method. Monte Carlo simulations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System and triangle‐based interpolation were performed to investigate the uncertainty arising from discharge, topography, and Manning's n in the East Fork of the White River near Seymour, Indiana, and in Strouds Creek in Orange County, North Carolina. We found that the uncertainty of a single variable is propagated differently to the flood inundation area depending on the effects of other variables in the overall process. The uncertainty was linearly/nonlinearly propagated corresponding to valley shapes of the reaches. In addition, the HSY sensitivity analysis revealed the topography of Seymour reach and the discharge of Strouds Creek to be major contributors to the change of flood inundation area. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Coherence between atmospheric teleconnections,Great Lakes water levels,and regional climate

We investigated the frequency domain relationships between four atmospheric teleconnections (Trans-Niño Index TNI, Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDO, Northern Annular Mode/Arctic Oscillation Index NAM/AO, and Pacific/North American PNA pattern) and water levels in the Great Lakes from 1948 to 2002 by quantifying the coherence between these time series. The levels in all Great Lakes are significantly correlated with the TNI in the frequency range (3–7)⁻¹ cycles year⁻¹, and with the PDO in interdecadal frequencies. The levels in Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Erie are significantly correlated with the PNA pattern in interdecadal frequencies, and the levels in all Great Lakes are significantly correlated with the NAM/AO in interannual frequencies.     

Diatom-derived palaeoconductivity estimates for Lake Awassa, Ethiopia: evidence for pulsed inflows of saline groundwater

A 6,500-year diatom stratigraphy has been used to infer hydrochemical changes in Lake Awassa, a topographically closed oligosaline lake in the Ethiopian Rift Valley. Conductivity was high from ~6400-6200 BP, and from 5200-4000 BP, with two brief episodes of lower conductivity during the latter period. Although the timing of the conductivity changes is similar to the timing of lake-level change in the nearby Zwai-Shalla basin, their directions are the reverse of that expected from a climatic cause. Dissolution of the tephras which precede both phases of high conductivity cannot explain the increases in salinity, because rhyolitic tephras are only sparingly soluble. Instead, the pulsed input of groundwater made saline by the reaction of silicate minerals and volcanic glass with carbonic acid, formed from the solution of carbon dioxide degassed from magma under the Awassa Caldera, is suggested as a plausible mechanism for the observed change in lake chemistry. Diatom-inferred hydrochemistry cannot therefore be used to reconstruct climate change in Lake Awassa.     

数字地球的体系研究

通过对地学空间信息研究背景及其内容的分析,认为数字地球是人类空间信息革命的序幕。并结合数字地球的关键技术,提出了数字地球的全球层、区域层以及国家层的实现模式。文章还对数字地球的应用领域展开了讨论,认为数字地球是人类下个世纪经济增长的关键,并是人类适居社区等建设的决策信息支柱。     

后三峡工程时代的鄱阳湖湿地淹没动态演变

周期性的淹没或出露是洪泛型湖泊湿地的重要物理特征,湖泊湿地的淹没动态对其生态过程有显著影响。三峡工程运行以来,鄱阳湖湿地淹没动态发生了显著变化并引发了剧烈生态效应,而目前研究尚未对后三峡工程时代的鄱阳湖淹没动态演变进行系统量化,也制约了对其驱动下湖泊湿地生态系统演变原因与机制的了解。鉴于此,本研究结合水文站实测数据与遥感观测资料,以淹没开始时间、淹没结束时间以及淹没历时3个变量共同表征湖泊湿地淹没动态,从站点及全湖尺度分别对三峡工程运行后鄱阳湖湿地淹没动态的变化趋势、量级及显著性进行定量分析。结果表明:(1)2000—2020年间,鄱阳湖湿地淹没开始时间在64%的湖区被推迟,推迟速率约为1.10天/年;仅在入江水道及碟形湖小幅提前,且提前趋势并不显著;(2)鄱阳湖湿地淹没结束时间在72%的湖区显著提前,提前速率约为1.46天/年;仅在有闸控工程的碟形湖因延迟泄水而有所延迟;(3)受淹没开始时间推迟而结束时间提前的影响,鄱阳湖湿地淹没历时在70%的湖区显著缩短,缩短速率约为2.19天/年,而在有闸控工程的碟形湖则有所延长。本文从站点与全湖尺度分别给出了基于实测而非模型模拟的鄱阳湖淹没动态...     

欧洲洪水影响评价技术在长江流域的运用及其若干修正

本文回顾了欧洲洪水影响评价技术.突出的问题是怎样处理洪灾及如何使洪灾损失降到最低.很明显在长江流域开展洪水风险和潜在的损失评价非常有意义.而现有的欧洲洪水影响评价技术难以在长江流域直接运用.我们对其进行了若干修正,并引入了基于GIS/RS的综合水文水动力和最小损失评价模型,该模型己经较好地运用于长江流域洪水影响评价的研究项目.     

The water balance of the Dead Sea: an integrated approach

The Dead Sea is the lowest spot on Earth. It is a closed saline lake located in the middle of the Jordan Rift Valley between Lake Tiberias and the Red Sea. Its major tributaries are the Jordan River itself and the Dead Sea side wadis. The Dead Sea has a unique ecosystem and its water has curative, industrial and recreational significance. The level of the Dead Sea has been continuously falling since the early 1930s at an average rate of 0·7 m per year. The water level, as of February 1998, is about 410·9 m below mean sea level. In this paper, a water balance model is developed for the Dead Sea by considering different hydrological components of this water balance, including precipitation, runoff, evaporation and groundwater flow. This model is calibrated based on historical levels of the Dead Sea. Different scenarios are investigated, including the proposed Dead Sea–Red Sea Canal. This project is supposed to halt the shrinking of the Dead Sea and restore it to pre‐1950 levels in the next century. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the impact of distributed snow water equivalent calibration and assimilation of Copernicus snow water equivalent on modelled snow and streamflow performance

Accuracy of the Copernicus snow water equivalent (SWE) product and the impact of SWE calibration and assimilation on modelled SWE and streamflow was evaluated. Daily snowpack measurements were made at 12 locations from 2016 to 2019 across a 4104 km² mixed-forest basin in the Great Lakes region of central Ontario, Canada. Sub-basin daily SWE calculated from these sites, observed discharge, and lake levels were used to calibrate a hydrologic model developed using the Raven modelling framework. Copernicus SWE was bias corrected during the melt period using mean bias subtraction and was compared to daily basin average SWE calculated from the measured data. Bias corrected Copernicus SWE was assimilated into the models using a range of parameters and the parameterizations from the model calibration. The bias corrected Copernicus product agreed well with measured data and provided a good estimate of mean basin SWE demonstrating that the product shows promise for hydrology applications within the study region. Calibration to spatially distributed SWE substantially improved the basin scale SWE estimate while only slightly degrading the flow simulation demonstrating the value of including SWE in a multi-objective calibration formulation. The particle filter experiments yielded the best SWE estimation but moderately degraded the flow simulation. The particle filter experiments constrained by the calibrated snow parameters produced similar results to the experiments using the upper and lower bounds indicating that, in this study, model calibration prior to assimilation was not valuable. The calibrated models exhibited varying levels of skill in estimating SWE but demonstrated similar streamflow performance. This indicates that basin outlet streamflow can be accurately estimated using a model with a poor representation of distributed SWE. This may be sufficient for applications where estimating flow is the primary water management objective. However, in applications where understanding the physical processes of snow accumulation, melt and streamflow generation are important, such as assessing the impact of climate change on water resources, accurate representations of SWE are required and can be improved via multi-objective calibration or data assimilation, as demonstrated in this study.