不同人口流动模式下城市传染病时空传播模型适用性研究

空间显式传染病传播模型由于能够较好地模拟城市内部的传染病传播过程,在城市疫情防控中得到了广泛应用。但现有的空间显式模型大多按照人口随机流动模式来模拟城市人口流动行为,未考虑城市中以通勤为主的人口流动模式。本文以长沙市的2014年第1～49周手足口病传播过程为例,将4、8、24邻域扩散以及重力模型、辐射模型共5种不同的人口流动模式与周期SEIR动力学模型结合建立起五种传染病传播模型,并通过比较模型时间和空间精度来明确不同人口流动模式应用在城市内传染病时空传播模拟中的各自优势和适用范围。实验结果表明：每种人口流动模式在城市内传染病时空传播模拟中都有其使用前提和适用范围。基于24邻域扩散的传播模型对手足口病病例数拟合精度最高(RMSE_spatial＿ts=0.58,RMSE_spatial＿st=0.95),基于重力模型的传播模型对城市内部传染病时空传播模拟中的传播趋势的模拟精度最高(r_spatial＿ts=0.46,r_spatial＿st=0.39),且对长沙市人口相对稠密区域(格网常住人口数大于第三四分...     

山东西南部南四湖流域环境地质综合调查

本文论述了水体污染、矿山环境地质灾害、地下水环境异常、南四湖淤积、地球化学环境与地方病等环境地质问题，探讨了煤炭开采对南四湖湖容演变的积极影响。湖体及主要人湖河流污染严重；流域内煤炭资源开发引起的矿山环境地质灾害比较严重，地面塌陷面积达112．395km^2；各种固体废弃物积存总量6412．68万t；矿井排水对矿区地下水资源造成严重破坏。地方病以地氟病和克山病为主。在对流域内环境地质问题综合分析的基础上，提出了对流域环境地质问题的治理措施。     

Emerging and vector-borne diseases: Role of high spatial resolution and hyperspectral images in analyses and forecasts

 Many infectious diseases that are emerging or transmitted by arthropod vectors have a strong link to landscape features. Depending on the source of infection or ecology of the transmitting vector, micro-habitat characteristics at the spatial scale of square meters or less may be important. Recently, satellite images have been used to classify habitats in an attempt to understand associations with infectious diseases. Whether high spatial resolution and hyperspectral (HSRH) images can be useful in studies of such infectious diseases is addressed. The nature of questions that such studies address and the desired accuracy and precision of answers will determine the utility of HSRH data. Need for such data should be based on the goals of the effort. Examples of kinds of questions and applications are discussed. The research implications and public health applications may depend on available analytic tools as well as epidemiological observations. Received: 30 July 2001 / Accepted: 14 October 2001     

基于GIS的马尾松毛虫灾害空间扩散规律分析

主要利用GIS的空间分析技术 ,探讨了松毛虫灾害的发生发展与地形、道路、居民地等的相关关系 ,科学地验证了松毛虫常发区的地理分布、发展过程等经验知识 ,充分肯定和展示了GIS用于松毛虫灾害定量、定位预测预报的可行性。     

Some pathological abnormalities of New Zealand fishes

A number of pathological abnormalities previously unrecorded in New Zealand fishes are described. A silver trevally (Pseudocaranx dentex) captured from the Bay of Islands exhibited swim bladder ectasia. Black oreo (Allocyttus niger) and smooth oreo (Pseudocyttus maculatus) had cysts of unknown aetiology (CUEs) in the gills at prevalences up to 76% and 81%, respectively, in some fishing areas. The CUEs appear long lived and may have some utility for stock discrimination. A hoki (Macruronus novaezelandiae) with X‐cell pseudotumours in the gill was recorded from the Chatham Rise. Alfonsino (Beryx splendens) had conspicuous Kudoa sp. cysts in the gills at prevalences of up to 28%. Smelt (Retropinna retropinna) from the Waikato River were infected with a xenoma forming, Glugea‐like microsporidian.     

呼吸道和心脑血管疾病与气象条件关系的研究进展

全球气候的变化,城市热岛效应的持续和加强以及热浪冲击频率的增多,给人类的健康带来了很大的影响。 随着经济和技术的发展,人们生活水平的提高,疾病与气象条件之间的关系越来越受到关注。通过分析总结主要气象因素气温、气压、风速对呼吸道和心脑血管疾病发病和死亡情况影响的研究成果。对气象条件与疾病之间关系研究中存在的问题,提出了一些意见和建议。     

轨道交通盾构隧道病害空间分布特征和自相关性研究

我国轨道交通已经进入新建与维护并重期.随着地铁隧道服役年限的增加,其病害种类不断增加,且各类病害呈逐渐加重的趋势.以三维激光测量隧道逐环监测数据为基础,研究隧道区间的病害空间分布特征和自相关性,全面掌握地铁隧道运营状态和病害发展趋势,是进行隧道病害防治的前提.本文利用某地地铁上行线隧道逐环三维激光测量数据,分析了错台、...     

The changing malaria risk patterns in East-Central Europe and the North Balkans in the last 27 000 years

Southeast Europe has historically been at the crossroads of migration routes between Western Asia and Europe. In the Holocene, this area might have been home to malaria. However, it is questionable when malaria arrived in this area and whether it could persist continuously or not in the Holocene. To begin to answer these questions, the July potential generation number of two malaria parasites were modelled, based on the reconstructed mean July temperatures of 52 times in the last 27 000 years. The results indicate that in the late Pleistocene era (27–12 kya bp ), vivax malaria might have been present in the south-east Black Sea and Aegean Sea's coastal areas. Vivax malaria could also be present in the Pannonian Basin and the inner parts of the North Balkans at least from the mid-Greenlandian period (~10 kya bp ). Although it is questionable whether falciparum malaria could be endemic in the Pannonian Basin during the mid-Holocene climate optimum (~6 kya bp ), this malaria plausibly could be endemic from the Neolithic era (~12–6.5 kya bp ) in the major river valleys of the North Balkan region, millennia ahead of the Graeco-Roman times (8th century bce to 6th century ce ).     

铁路站场岩溶地基加固补强技术与效果分析

针对某病害站场路基,根据其变形规律对其基础进行补勘,分析病害原因,在此基础上提出岩溶地基加固补强方案：①补注浆加固岩溶地基和基岩顶面土体;②高压旋喷加固补强原复合地基;③低压注浆加固垫层及其以上3～5 m路基填土层;④侧向补注浆帷幕加固地基;⑤建立路基变形监测系统,评估加固补强效果。加固补强后地基沉降量和复合地基承载力特征值的理论计算值分别为12.4 mm和455 kPa,满足设计要求。现场监测结果表明,补注浆加固岩溶地基及其顶面土体后,站场路基变形减缓;旋喷桩和低压注浆加固区竣工后,路基呈均匀性沉降变形,变形速率急剧变小;竣工6个月后,路基变形趋于稳定,综合验证了加固补强方案的正确性和有效性。     

鲍类微生物性疾病研究进展

鲍类微生物性病害包括病毒性疾病、原核生物样疾病、细菌性疾病及真菌性疾病。本文就鲍类微生物病害的病原学、致病机制、组织病理学和流行病学等方面的进展,以及相关的诊断防治研究情况进行概述,以期为今后鲍类的病害防治研究提供依据。