传染病多维度聚集性探测方法

及早发现异常健康事件的苗头是有效进行传染病早期预警的关键.现有的传染病聚集性探测仅限于时间、空间或时空维度,往往容易忽略病例个人情况从其他方面反映的信息,从而造成过度预警.论文结合蚁群聚类算法和Bayesian Gamma-Poisson 模型,提出一种全新的传染病多维度聚类探测技术.研究区麻疹爆发案例证明该技术在继承以往时空聚集性探测技术思想的基础上,考虑了病例的属性信息,能更为灵敏、准确地找出传染病聚集区域.此方法在实际工作中具有潜在的重要应用价值.     

Spatio-temporal distribution of vascular plant species abundance on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Journal of Geographical Sciences - For quantitatively explaining the correlations between the vascular plant species abundance (VPSA) and habitat factors, a spatial simulation method has been...     

Chemical characterization of Lower Devonian vascular plants

Vegetative remains of three coalified Lower Devonian vascular plants (Zosterophyllum, Psilophyton, Renalia) were analyzed using flash pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. The distributions of pyrolysis products are compared with those from younger vascular plant fossil xylem (Cordaixylon, Callixylon) and cuticle (Pachypteris). The likelihood of the chemical preservation of characteristic higher plant macromolecules (e.g., lignin and cutan) in the Lower Devonian plant fossils is considered in light of this comparison and associated thermal maturity assessments. Reflectance values from vitrinite-like macerals, which may not be vitrinite sensu stricto in the Lower Devonian host rocks for the fossils selected for this study, are shown to provide a reasonable assessment of the thermal maturity of these early vascular plant fossils. Although lignin altered through burial maturation is the most likely source of the prominent alkylphenols and aromatic hydrocarbons in the Lower Devonian tracheophyte flash pyrolysates, a contribution from thermally modified tannins cannot be ruled out. Comparison of the highly aliphatic pyrolysates from the Zosterophyllum and Psilophyton axes with that of a thermally mature fossil gymnosperm leaf revealed that cutan was an important component in the Devonian plant remains. This is the earliest chemical evidence for the presence of cutan in vascular plants.     

大足石刻北山168窟围岩病害高频瑞雷波成像

大足石刻北山168窟为五百罗汉窟,开凿于1119年至1125年,窟高3.3m,宽3.14m,进深7.1m,是大足石刻中尺寸较大的一个重要洞窟。目前,168窟围岩裂隙风化病害十分严重,面临失稳坍塌的危险。为制定针对性的长久保护措施,需查明168窟围岩病害的现状。通过现场调查、物探、钻探等技术手段,获取了大足石刻北山168窟及邻近区域的工程地质条件。进一步,采用高频瑞雷波探测技术对168窟顶板岩体进行瑞雷波相速度成像,考虑168窟顶板岩体特定的围岩边界条件和场地工程地质条件,对洞窟顶板岩体瑞雷波相速度-深度成像剖面中的低速区分布进行成因分析和解译,揭示石窟顶板岩体风化现状和节理裂隙的发育情况。为分析评价洞窟围岩稳定性和石窟保护工程设计提供基础性地质资料和必要的计算参数,也为相关技术在文物保护工程的应用提供经验和借鉴。     

甘肃省小麦主要病虫害及预报方法概述

介绍了甘肃省冬、春小麦主要病虫害的分布特点、危害程度以及发生、流行的适宜气象条件;并简要阐述了目前常用的建立预测病虫害模型的原理及方法。     

毛乌素沙地低湿地维管植物区系特征

运用植物学及植物地理学方法,结合野外实地调查,对毛乌素沙地低湿地植物区系组成、地理成分、生活型及水分生态类群特征进行了分析研究。结果表明,低湿地共有维管植物59科182属323种,其中被子植物占总数的99.07%。单种科、寡种科和单种属、寡种属是低湿地植物区系的主体,是植物区系复杂性及物种多样性的主要来源,寡种属优势明显。中型科属和较大科属虽不占主体,但却往往是构成植物群落的建群种或为植物区系的代表成分,对植物区系的构成及植被的分布格局都有很大的影响。植物区系地理成分多样,温带分布型是低湿地植物区系地理成分的主要组成部分,低湿地植物具有典型的温带特征。低湿地草本植物占数量优势,草本植物以多年生为主,多年生草本植物对低湿地环境影响作用较为明显。低湿地植物地理成分及分布特征也说明气候、环境条件,植物种的生态幅度及其对环境的适应能力对植物地理分布具有决定性影响。     

广州老年人小病慢病“旁路”就医行为及其影响因素

基于广州13个社区问卷调查数据,运用多元线性回归模型探讨老年人“旁路”就医距离特征及其影响因素,结果发现：1）广州老年人小病及慢性病旁路就医距离以1 km为“就地—旁路”临界点,以5 km为“近旁路—远旁路”临界点,形成核心—边缘旁路就医圈层;2）男性老年人比女性老年人旁路就医距离更远;3）居住社区类型是影响旁路就医距离的关键因素,医疗级配不均对旁路就医距离远近影响较大,也是城乡社区老年人旁路就医距离差异化的重要原因;4）对社区越满意的老年人更倾向选择社区内就地就医。倾向特征、使能资源和医疗需求共同影响老年人旁路就医行为的距离远近,进而影响老年人健康公平结果。     

沙尘沉降可能阻滞泥炭地植被的自发演替

以长白山区泥炭地的6种泥炭藓孢子和8种维管植物种子为受试材料,进行室内模拟实验,对比研究了沙尘沉降对泥炭藓孢子和维管植物种子萌发的影响。数据分析显示,施加沙尘抑制除锈色泥炭藓外其他所有泥炭藓孢子的萌发,在接近自然沉降的50 g/(m²·a)水平时,这些泥炭藓孢子的萌发率均下降一半以上。无论沙尘施加量如何,有4种维管植物种子均未萌发。施加沙尘抑制了狭叶杜香（Rhododendron tomentosum）和小白花地榆（Sanguisorba parviflora）种子的萌发,但却对宽叶杜香（Rhododendron palustre）和燕子花（Iris laevigata）种子的萌发呈现一定的促进趋势。研究表明,沙尘沉降可抑制泥炭地泥炭藓孢子和部分典型维管植物种子的萌发,但可能会对非典型的或喜营养的泥炭地维管植物种子萌发产生促进作用。所以,长期存在的沙尘沉降,可能通过提高泥炭地N、Ca水平和pH值的作用,抑制泥炭藓孢子定居,阻滞中国长白山区泥炭地自发演替的进程。     

灰色系统理论在绵阳市作物病虫害预测中的应用

作物病虫害的综合管理是一个多因素的复杂系统,针对这一特点,本文全面阐述了灰色系统模型的建立与预测方法,建立了作物病虫害测报中的GM (1,1)模型,测报准确性较高,模型模拟检验精度达到I级水平,发展系数<0.3,可用于该地区作物病虫害作中长期预测。     

Effects of weather types on hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in Castilla-La Mancha,Spain

The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship between the risk of hospital admission for respiratory diseases (RD) and the daily weather types during the period 2000-2006. A synoptic climatological approach is used to investigate links between air-mass types (weather situations) and all respiratory hospital admissions in the Castilla-La Mancha (CLM) area in Spain. This afforded the main circulation weather types (CWTs) for the winter and spring periods (since respiratory hospital admissions reached their maximum during these seasons) and the frequency distributions of these types were analyzed. A summary of the main characteristics of the hospital admission series and their distribution over the seven years studied, together with the frequency distributions of the admissions classified by sex and ages, for season, month and for each day of the week, is reported. In addition, a comparison between air-mass classification and hospital admissions is made using an admission index (AI). The results reveal different responses of respiratory admission rates to the eight air-mass types identified in winter and in spring. In winter, three air massess southwesterly (SW), anti-cyclonic (A) and hybrid anti-cyclonic southwesterly (HASW), are associated with values 1.5 times higher than the respective average admission rates, while in spring no significant differences are seen.