Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p 〈0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to cheek the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height （X1 ） and potential energy （X2 ） significantly impact （p 〈 0. 0001 ） the amplitude-based refleeted rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all 〉 0.05 （0.2839, 0.3438, respectively）. That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height （ X1 ） and potential energy （X2） can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model. Investigation of 6 predictive powers （ R2, Max-rescaled R^2, Sorners＇ D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively） indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models： An Empirical Validation of ISW-Ridge Relationships

Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions p^1, p^2 and p^3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.     

基于多源遥感数据的日本海内波特征研究

日本海特殊的地理位置和复杂的地形使得该海域内波表征极为复杂,遥感是大范围观测内波的有效手段,已被广泛应用于内波的探测研究。本文利用MODIS、GF-1和ENVISAT ASAR遥感影像,开展了日本海内波特征研究。通过提取内波波峰线,生成了日本海内波空间分布图;获取了内波的波峰线长度和传播速度,并基于非线性薛定谔方程反演了内波振幅。研究结果表明,日本海内波分布范围宽广,不仅大陆架沿海区内波分布密集,深海盆地也探测到了大量内波;日本海北部45°N附近海域有少量内波出现,利用高分影像探测到朝鲜陆架浅海区有大量小尺度内波,大和海盆、大和隆起的西南部海域没有发现内波。日本海内波波峰线长达100多千米,深海区的传播速度大于1 m/s;浅海区内波振幅约10 m左右,深海区可达60 m以上。     

Experimental Study on Cross-Flow Induced Vibrations in Heat Exchanger Tube Bundle

Vibration in heat exchangers is one of the main problems that the industry has faced over last few decades. Vibration phenomenon in heat exchangers is of major concern for designers and process engineers since it can lead to the tube damage, tube leakage, baffle damage, tube collision damage, fatigue, creep etc. In the present study, vibration response is analyzed on single tube located in the centre of the tube bundle having parallel triangular arrangement (60°) with P/D ratio of 1.44. The experiment is performed for two different flow conditions. This kind of experiment has not been reported in the literature. Under the first condition, the tube vibration response is analyzed when there is no internal flow in the tube and under the second condition, the response is analyzed when the internal tube flow is maintained at a constant value of 0.1 m/s. The free stream shell side velocity ranges from 0.8 m/s to 1.3 m/s, the reduced gap velocity varies from 1.80 to 2.66 and the Reynolds number varies from 44500 to 66000. It is observed that the internal tube flow results in larger vibration amplitudes for the tube than that without internal tube flow. It is also established that over the current range of shell side flow velocity, the turbulence is the dominant excitation mechanism for producing vibration in the tube since the amplitude varies directly with the increase in the shell side velocity. Damping has no significant effect on the vibration behavior of the tube for the current velocity range.     

深海内波空间啁啾的演变研究

根据基于两层流体推导的深海内波弱非线性薛定谔(Nonlinear Schrodinger,简称NLS)方程,引进空间啁啾的思想,研究深海区频散效应和非线性效应的作用。文中推导出了频散效应和非线性效应所致啁啾的表达式,采用数值计算方法计算了综合效应产生的总啁啾。分析了频散和非线性以及综合效应所致啁啾在深海内波传播中的演变规律。从空间啁啾的角度,解释中国南海东沙群岛附近深海区内波演变的机理。     

深水立管设计标准中内波作用的分析与探讨

深水立管的设计、建造以及安装都必须依据相关规范进行,中国当前尚未出台专门针对立管设计的相关标准,现阶段还是以参考国外规范为主。本文首先对立管设计、安装中涉及的相关规范和工业标准进行介绍,论述当前国外API、ABS和DNV设计规范中关于深水立管环境条件及其载荷的相关规定,然后针对中国南海等海域普遍存在的内波现象,分析了内波尤其是内孤立波对顶张力立管的影响,结果表明,内孤立波会引起立管较大的位移以及较高的应力幅值,需要在设计分析中加以考虑。最后对中国在引入API、ABS和DNV等相关规范设计深水立管时提出相应的建议,以期为南海海域油气开发中立管的设计提供参考。     

波浪与多孔介质结构相互作用SPH模拟

应用经CSPM法和黎曼解修正后的光滑粒子流体动力学(SPH)方法,建立了主动吸收无反射数值波浪水槽,研究波浪作用下多孔介质结构的水动力特性。流体运动控制方程采用N-S方程,多孔渗水结构内流体的运动控制方程考虑渗流力的影响。数值计算结果给出了水槽内不同位置测点的波面历时曲线和越浪量随时间变化曲线,并同试验结果和Philip Liu的数值计算结果进行了比较。并对一个波浪周期内斜坡堤多孔介质结构内外的速度场和压力分布进行了讨论分析。计算分析表明,数值计算波面较Philip Liu的计算结果与试验结果吻合更好。说明应用SPH方法建立的二维数学模型能够较好地模拟破碎波在多孔渗水斜坡上的爬坡和越浪。     

西沙群岛潮、余流特征研究

对1962、1974、1976、1991、2002年西沙群岛海域实测海流资料分析得出:西沙群岛潮汐特征系数为3.40,是不正规日潮;潮流特征比较复杂,少数为不规则半日潮流型,多数为不规则日潮流型;半日周期的内潮在永兴岛西部特别显著,最大流速可达1.5m/s,对珊瑚生态系统有重要影响;西沙群岛余流,春季4～5月总体方向是东北,最大余流速度66cm/s,出现在中建岛西部;夏初余流方向偏北,速度明显降低,中建岛表、底层流速都不超过50cm/s。结合18a卫星高度计资料统计分析得出,春季和夏季西沙群岛海域处于反气旋式环流的北部,中建岛处于反气旋式环流的西缘,水平压强梯度大,加之地形影响,因此流速最大。     

经验模态与小波分解在光学遥感内波参数提取中的应用

内波遥感参数提取是利用遥感影像研究海洋内波的重要手段,通过提取内波的基本参数可以对海洋内波的生成与传播机制进行进一步的研究。提出了利用经验模态分解、小波分解与高阶多项式拟合从光学影像中提取内波半波宽度的方法。经验模态分解与小波分解对内波剖面数据进行尺度分解,根据归一化方差最大来提取内波分量;多项式拟合基于内波剖面的亮暗条纹变化完全由内波调制的假设,对数据进行拟合,并根据一阶导数来提取半波宽度。用南海北部东沙岛附近2004年7月10日的中-巴资源卫星(China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite,CBERS)影像对方法进行了验证。结果表明,3种方法能较好地提取所需参数,获取的内波半波宽度具有较好的一致性;上述方法在处理非平稳及非线性遥感数据上,具有非常明显的优势。基于一维非线性内波理论,通过提取的内波半波宽度,辅以水深和混合层深度数据,反演了内波的振幅。