Ecosystem modelling in the southern Benguela: comparisons of Atlantis,Ecopath with Ecosim,and OSMOSE under fishing scenarios

Ecosystem-based management of marine fisheries requires the use of simulation modelling to investigate the system-level impact of candidate fisheries management strategies. However, testing of fundamental assumptions such as system structure or process formulations is rarely done. In this study, we compare the output of three different ecosystem models (Atlantis, Ecopath with Ecosim, and OSMOSE) applied to the same ecosystem (the southern Benguela), to explore which ecosystem effects of fishing are most sensitive to model uncertainty. We subjected the models to two contrasting fishing pressure scenarios, applying high fishing pressure to either small pelagic fish or to adult hake. We compared the resulting model behaviour at a system level, and also at the level of model groups. We analysed the outputs in terms of various commonly used ecosystem indicators, and found some similarities in the overall behaviour of the models, despite major differences in model formulation and assumptions. Direction of change in system-level indicators was consistent for all models under the hake pressure scenario, although discrepancies emerged under the small-pelagic-fish scenario. Studying biomass response of individual model groups was key to understanding more integrated system-level metrics. All three models are based on existing knowledge of the system, and the convergence of model results increases confidence in the robustness of the model outputs. Points of divergence in the model results suggest important areas of future study. The use of feeding guilds to provide indicators for fish species at an aggregated level was explored, and proved to be an interesting alternative to aggregation by trophic level.     

2021年国外地震灾害及损失述评

通过多种渠道收集并整理2021年全球地震灾情信息,对比分析国外历年地震灾害情况,根据2021年度国外重大地震灾害事件,总结其灾害特点,可知2021年国外地震灾害程度与前2年相比有所加重,地震灾害相对集中,灾区房屋抗震性能差与次生灾害重是导致人员伤亡的重要原因。     

大陆海岸线监测数据与沿海保护政策中数据指标的比对分析

2013年辽宁省测绘地理信息局在进行地理国情普查的同时,作为省情普查的一项重要内容,开展了辽宁省大陆海岸线变化监测与分析工作。本文利用2007~2013年辽宁省大陆海岸线数据,对海岸线长度、填海造地以及滨海新区、重点产业园区和港口占用岸线情况进行了统计,并与目前辽宁省沿海保护利用政策中的自然岸线保有率、围填海规模控制、岸线整治与修复、重点保护岸线和重点建设岸线比重控制等数据指标进行了比对分析。     

中美过去300年土地利用变化比较

开展历史土地利用变化的国别对比研究,不仅有利于深化大尺度LUCC过程与驱动机制的科学认识,而且对深入研究历史碳排放责任等也有着重要意义。利用长时间序列数据,对中美两国过去300年土地利用/覆被变化的时空特征及驱动因素进行对比分析。结果表明:1过去300年中美两国耕地数量总体均呈持续增长态势,中国在1661-1980s的320余年间耕地总量增长了79.46×104km2,但人均耕地面积却从1685年的5.5亩,下降至2000年的1.5亩;而美国在1700-1950年的250年间耕地面积增加了190.87×104km2,且人均耕地面积均超过9亩,其中1890年高达30.2亩。2受土地垦殖扩张影响,过去300年中美两国林、草地资源均呈持续减少态势;其中,美国森林面积减少了约145×104km2,草地面积减少约137×104km2;而中国森林面积减少了约90×104km2,草地面积减少了约40×104km2。3从空间格局变化特征看,过去300年中国土地垦殖主要向边区(如东北、西南、内蒙等)及内地山地丘陵区发展;而美国在"西进运动"的影响下,大规模向中西部拓殖。4政策、人口、农业技术等因素是影响过去300年中美土地利用/覆被变化的主要因素,但由于两国资源禀赋及发展历史的差异,虽然直接驱动力均体现为政策因素,但就根本驱动因素而言,中国是人口数量,美国则是经济利益;同时,在农业技术发展取向上,中国因"人多地少",走"精耕细作"之路,而美国因"人少地多",走"机械化"之途。     

中(西)澳地质填图对比及对中国地质填图的启示

为了解发达国家最新填图工作方法,吸取其精华并进一步完善国内填图方法、提高填图质量,中国地质调查局西安地质调查中心与西澳大利亚地调局开展了为期4年的地质填图技术方法交流合作。基于西澳大利亚州(以下简称西澳)伊尔岗克拉通和中国西部北山造山带3年的实地填图工作,系统地对比了中国与西澳地质填图的异同。双方在工作思路、工作程序等方面基本一致,但是在成果表达、数据集成、人员组织、质量管理等方面存在系统差异。对所有实体按照岩性进行划分和填图是西澳长期以来地质填图的基本思想,也是中国地质填图现在及将来努力的方向。系统逻辑的数据集成与共享也是值得借鉴的一个重要方面。地质调查、科研相结合与高素质人员进军地调队伍是提高填图质量的前提和基础,着眼于大区域的工作部署和稳定的区域地质调查队伍是加快填图速度的重要保障。     

Identifying the Origin of Anomalous High Tropospheric Ozone in the Ozonesonde Data at Uccle by Comparison with Nearby De Bilt

Abstract

The ozonesonde stations at Uccle (Belgium) and De Bilt (Netherlands), separated by only 175?km, offer a unique opportunity to test the influence of different ozonesonde types and different correction strategies, as well as to detect the presence of inhomogeneities in the ozonesonde time series resulting from changes in sounding equipment (solution, radiosonde, ozonesonde, interface, sounding software, etc.). In particular, we highlight a 2.5 year period (beginning of 2007 to mid-2009) of anomalous high tropospheric ozone values measured by ozonesondes at Uccle and compare these with the observations from De Bilt. Because the ozone deviations are only observed in the free troposphere where ozone concentrations are relatively low, and not in the boundary layer or the stratosphere, this issue is directly related to the sensitivity of ozonesondes. Therefore, the effect of every instrumental change, even though small, during this 2.5 year anomalous period is analyzed considering a change in the radiosounding equipment, different ozonesonde batches, operational differences at the stations, differences on ascent and descent during the anomalous period; an environmental cause is also examined. Unfortunately, one single, specific cause for the observed high tropospheric ozone values at Uccle could not be identified. There are two explanations consistent with the observations and not ruled out by the analysis here: 1) the majority of the ozonesondes used at Uccle between March 2007 and August 2009 needed longer conditioning of their sensors and, therefore, behaved more accurately at low ozone concentrations during their descent or when used a second time, and 2) an environmental origin arising from a local difference in the air mass between Uccle and De Bilt and between the ascent and descent.     

西藏当雄地基紫外线指数观测研究

基于西藏当雄2009年9月—2011年8月地基紫外线指数 (UVI) 观测,结合TUV辐射传输模式分析, 该文检验太阳天顶角、云、臭氧、积雪和气溶胶对UVI的影响。结果显示,影响地面UVI主要因素是太阳天顶角和云。晴天地面UVI可简单用太阳天顶角拟合函数表征;地面UVI的云调制因子总体上随云量增加呈下降趋势,但间隙性、未遮蔽日面的云可增强太阳散射辐射,使云调制因子值平均增加约3%~6%,个别情形达40%。臭氧低谷使当雄UVI比同纬度平原地区增加约12%;冬季短期、浅层积雪使UVI增加16%或更低,也低于模式模拟值 (23%);气溶胶 (光学厚度为0.02~0.1) 对UVI衰减低于3%。因臭氧低谷导致青藏高原臭氧南北分布的差异,相同太阳天顶角下拉萨 (海拔为3650 m) UVI较瓦里关 (海拔为3810 m) 偏高7%~10%。与卫星产品比较表明:OMI卫星UVI产品在当雄、沱沱河、瓦里关和拉萨较地基测值总体偏高65%以上,而晴天则平均分别偏高8.6%,13%,9%和50%。云、地基与卫星像元地理位置差异应是卫星UVI产品偏高的原因。当雄地基UVI测值大于14时,卫星UVI产品反而低3%应与间隙性云有效增强了地面辐射有关。     

基于变量投影的结构总体最小二乘算法

测绘领域诸多实际应用中系数矩阵和观测向量具有结构特征,即系数矩阵和观测向量中包含固定量(甚至固定列)和随机量,并且不同位置的随机量线性相关。针对这个问题,从变量误差(errors-in-variables,EIV)函数模型出发,首先,将系数矩阵和观测向量构成的增广矩阵表示为仿射函数形式,并采用变量投影法对函数模型进行重构;然后,利用拉格朗日法推导出了一种结构总体最小二乘(structured total least squares,STLS)估计算法。算例分析结果表明,该算法与已有能够解决系数矩阵和观测向量存在结构特征的加权或结构总体最小二乘算法估计结果一致,说明了该算法的有效性,同时阐明了该算法与已有相关算法的关系。     

对水力压裂连通井的认识

Ｙ、Ｄ、Ｌ井组是平顶山盐厂仅有的三对水力压裂连通井组,也是平顶山盐厂卤水的主要产供者,Ｙ井组为设计水力压裂连通井组,Ｄ、Ｌ井组为改造连通井组,由原对流单井改造而成。本文通过三井组连通通道所处层位的判断及其运行特点的解析,对两种连通井组作出比较,并对平顶山盐田采卤方法提出建议     

An evaluation of two alongshore transport equations with field measurements

The performance of two well-known equations to predict the depth-averaged alongshore suspended sediment flux [Van Rijn, L.C., 1984. Sediment transport, part II: suspended load transport. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering 110, 1613–1641; and Bailard, J.A., 1981. An energetics total load sediment transport model for a plane sloping beach. Journal of Geophysical Research 86, 10938–10954] was assessed by comparing predictions with 2306 field estimates based on a vertical stack of three optical backscatter sensors and a single electromagnetic flow meter. The observations were collected at four cross-shore positions on the intertidal beach of Egmond aan Zee, the Netherlands, during calm to storm conditions, with the offshore significant wave height peaking at 3.7 m. Measured hydrodynamics were employed in the computations of both models. Also, default parameter values were used without calibration to the data. We found that both models underpredicted the observations. Overall, the Van Rijn model outperformed the Bailard model, with about 70% of the model prediction lying between 1/5 to 5 of the observations under energetic conditions. For the Bailard model this was only about 20%. The performance of the Van Rijn model is, however, sensitive to the wave-related roughness, one of its highly uncertain free parameters. This may allow for an easy calibration when estimates of the depth-averaged alongshore sediment flux are available but may lead to serious errors in situations without data to constrain the predictions. We suspect that the discrepancy between the observations and model predictions is due to an overestimation of the observed fluxes (high turbidity, air bubbles) and an underestimation of the modeled fluxes because of missing physics related primarily to breaking waves.