1—3月欧亚大陆热力变化及其与中国降水的关系

利用1979—2011年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、我国160个站降水和气温资料,分析欧亚大陆热力变化特征,其在冬季和春季的气候变率最明显,且南北区域呈反相差异。在此基础上, 探讨1—3月欧亚大陆热力差异与中国降水异常的关系,欧亚大陆正 (负) 热力差异年,1—3月华南、西南至河套西部地区降水偏多 (少) 明显,后期夏季多雨带位于长江中下游地区 (华南地区)。大气环流异常特征显示:1—3月欧亚大陆南北热力差异与同期北极涛动 (AO)、东亚大槽、东亚高空急流等大尺度大气环流,以及后期东亚高空急流、南亚高压、低层季风风系异常的密切相关是欧亚大陆热力变化与中国降水联系的可能途径。     

结合PCA和滑动时窗的电离层异常探测方法研究

针对主成分分析（PCA）方法探测电离层异常时探测范围有限且无法区分正负扰动的问题,提出一种结合PCA和滑动时窗的探测方法,并以3次强震为例检测其异常探测能力。结果显示,PCA-滑动时窗方法同时具备了2种方法的探测优势,相较于滑动时窗法,其探测结果更加直观、简明,且不易受空间环境影响,有相对更高的异常探测置信度和可靠度;相较于PCA方法,其能更好地用于长时间时空异常探测,并准确区分出正负异常。另外,通过进一步分析2020年瓦哈卡地震后发现,电离层在震前11~13 d、9 d及4~6 d出现明显异常,且异常位于震中偏南区域。综合4次地震可知,异常主要出现在震中偏南方向,大多呈共轭结构。     

近50 a来祁连山及河西走廊极端气候的时空变化研究

 在全球变暖背景下,极端气候发生的频率增大,气象灾害造成的损失也随之增加。利用20个气象站1960-2009年的日平均气温和日降水量资料,运用线性趋势法、Spline空间插值法、Morlet小波分析法,对祁连山及河西走廊极端气候的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明：极端高温天数呈显著增加趋势,年际变化率为0.79d/a,20世纪90年代中后期之后极端高温天气发生的频率较高;极端低温天数呈显著减少趋势,年际变化率为-0.54d/a, 80年代中后期以来极端低温天气发生的频率较低;极端降水天数也呈显著增加趋势,年际变化率为0.02d/a,70年代中后期之后极端降水天气发生的频率较高。极端气温和降水的年际变化幅度存在区域差异,南部山区比走廊平原对全球气候变暖的响应敏感。极端高温天数和极端低温天数在8a、22a左右周期变化明显,其中22a是第一主周期;极端降水天数在6a、10a、22a左右周期变化明显,其中22a是第一主周期;从22a的周期变化推测,2010年以后11a左右极端高温天数偏少,极端低温天数偏多,极端降水天数偏少。     

琅琊山铜矿床控矿构造的再认识

以构造解析为手段,突破前人对琅琊山铜矿区的传统地质构造认识,提出区域应变滑劈理控 岩,“Ａ”形劈滑褶皱控矿的新论点,并以此来阐述矿体赋存特征及形态、产状、规模等特征。     

Evaluation of evapotranspiration models over semi‐arid and semi‐humid areas of China

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a critical component in the hydrological cycle. However, its actual values appear to be difficult to obtain, especially in areas in which precipitation has high inter‐annual variability. Here, we evaluated eight commonly used ET models in semi‐arid and semi‐humid areas of China. The order of overall performance from best to worst is as follows: the revised Priestley–Taylor model (PT‐JPL, 0.71, 1.65 [18.37%], 4.72 [49.19%]) a a Statistics (model abbreviation, coefficient of determination, bias [relative value], standard deviation [relative value]).
, the modified PT‐JPL model (M1‐PT‐JPL, 0.67, ?0.68 [7.56%], 3.87 [40.31%]), the Community Land Model (CLM, 0.68, ?2.52 [28.01%], 5.10 [53.17%]), the modified PT‐JPL model (M2‐PT‐JPL, 0.63, 0.57 [6.27%], 5.04 [52.52%]), the revised Penman–Monteith model (RS‐PM, 0.62, 3.56 [37.40%], 6.11 [63.68%]), an empirical model (Wang, 0.59, ?1.04 [11.57%], 5.61 [58.43%]), the advection‐aridity model (AA, 0.55, 5.56 [61.78%], 7.45 [77.60%]), and the energy balance model (SEBS, 0.35, 5.11 [56.72%], 9.43 [98.18%]). The performance of all of the models is comparably poor in winter and summer, except for the PT‐JPL model, and relatively good in spring and autumn. Because of the vegetation control on ET, the Wang, RS‐PM, PT‐JPL, M1‐PT‐JPL, and M2‐PT‐JPL models perform better for cropland, whereas the AA model, SEBS model and CLM perform better for grassland. The CLM, PT‐JPL, and Wang models perform better in semi‐arid region than in semi‐humid region, whereas the opposite is true for SEBS and RS‐PM. The AA, M1‐PT‐JPL, and M2‐PT‐JPL models perform similarly in semi‐arid and semi‐humid regions. When considering the inter‐annual variability in precipitation, the Wang model has relatively good performance under only some annual precipitation conditions; the performance of the PT‐JPL and AA models is reduced under conditions of high precipitation; the two modified PT‐JPL models inherited the steady performance of the PT‐JPL model and improved the performance under conditions of high annual precipitation by the modification of the soil moisture constraint. RS‐PM is more appropriate for humid conditions. CLM and PT‐JPL models could be effectively applied to all precipitation conditions because of their good performance across a wide annual precipitation range. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inter‐comparison of hydro‐climatic regimes across northern catchments: synchronicity,resistance and resilience

The higher mid‐latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are particularly sensitive to climate change as small differences in temperature determine frozen ground status, precipitation phase, and the magnitude and timing of snow accumulation and melt. An international inter‐catchment comparison program, North‐Watch, seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to climate change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical responses. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). This briefing presents the initial stage of the North‐Watch program, which focuses on how these catchments collect, store and release water and identify ‘types’ of hydro‐climatic catchment response. At most sites, a 10‐year data of daily precipitation, discharge and temperature were compiled and evaporation and storage were calculated. Inter‐annual and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes were assessed via normalized fluxes and standard flow metrics. At the annual‐scale, relations between temperature, precipitation and discharge were compared, highlighting the role of seasonality, wetness and snow/frozen ground. The seasonal pattern and synchronicity of fluxes at the monthly scale provided insight into system memory and the role of storage. We identified types of catchments that rapidly translate precipitation into runoff and others that more readily store water for delayed release. Synchronicity and variance of rainfall–runoff patterns were characterized by the coefficient of variation (cv) of monthly fluxes and correlation coefficients. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed clustering among like catchments in terms of functioning, largely controlled by two components that (i) reflect temperature and precipitation gradients and the correlation of monthly precipitation and discharge and (ii) the seasonality of precipitation and storage. By advancing the ecological concepts of resistance and resilience for catchment functioning, results provided a conceptual framework for understanding susceptibility to hydrological change across northern catchments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于多GNSS融合的GPS PPP模糊度固定方法

通过BDS/GPS/GLONASS组合的方式加速PPP的收敛,利用整数相位钟法实现GPS PPP模糊度的固定,并通过6个MGEX测站的数据进行PPP动态实验。结果表明,固定解的精度优于浮点解,而基于BDS/GPS/GLONASS融合的PPP固定解定位精度优于单GPS PPP固定解;GPS固定解PPP平均模糊度首次固定时间（TTFF）为46.1 min,而基于BDS/GPS/GLONASS融合的固定解PPP首次固定时间仅为25.8 min,相应的模糊度固定率也由78.6%增加到87.4%。     

榆林地区1970-2010年气候因子变化特征分析

榆林位于陕西省黄土高原和内蒙古毛乌素沙地的交接地带,是我国北方农牧交错带的典型地区,地理环境复杂多样,致使该地区生态环境比较敏感,极易受到气候变化和人类活动的影响和干扰。为探讨榆林地区气候变化的发展趋势和特征,基于1970-2010年气象资料,对榆林地区5个气象指标（平均最低气温、平均最高气温、平均气温、降水量和太阳辐射）进行空间插值,进而分析了各指标的季节和年际变化特征,即趋势变化、周期性变化、突变特征。结果表明,榆林地区气温呈现上升的趋势,春季和冬季的气温增幅对全年的增温贡献较大;降水量波动变化较大,夏季降水量减少比其他季节明显。20世纪80年代的降水量较大,90年代前期和中期降水量减少,而90年代后期降水量出现了回升趋势;41 a来的太阳辐射呈现下降的趋势,夏季太阳辐射的减少对全年太阳辐射的减少贡献较大。5个气象指标的周期性变化在大时间尺度上（如25~32 a）变化比较稳定,在小时间尺度上差异比较明显;降水量和平均最低气温在三类时间尺度（如5~15 a、15~25 a和25~30 a）上的周期比较明显。另外,除春季降水量外,其他季节的气象因子在1970-2010年期间变化频率有增加、时间间隔减少的趋势,说明最近10~20 a榆林地区气候变化比较活跃。对榆林地区气候变化特征进行分析,为进一步揭示气候变化下榆林地区农业生产系统的影响机理提供理论基础,为当地政府制定农业生产政策提供决策支持。     

全球导航卫星系统反射测量（GNSS+R）最新进展与应用前景

全球卫星导航系统反射测量（global navigation satellite system-reflectometry,GNSS-R）技术可以同时接收导航卫星直射信号和来自水面的反射信号,进而利用伪距、载波相位和信噪比信息实现高时空分辨率的水面高度反演。由于岸基设备特别是单频设备在部分受限环境中观测量不足,导致基于载波相位处理的GNSS-R实时测高性能降低,因此提出了一种利用GNSS重叠频率B1C/L1/E1信号的紧组合模型以提升单频GNSS-R的测高性能。首先,从天线极化方式的角度对差分系统间偏差(differential inter‐system bias,DISB)进行评估和分析。结果表明,对于左圆极化天线和右圆极化天线组成的短基线,在使用同型号接收机时可以忽略DISB的影响。然后,基于实测北斗三号卫星导航系统/全球定位系统（global positioning system,GPS）/伽利略(Galileo)系统数据评估了多系统紧组合模型下的GNSS-R测高性能。实验结果表明,相比于松组合模型,多系统紧组合模型能够显著减少安装环境对设备的限制,特别是在单系统反射信号观测量不足4个的条件下,紧组合模型GNSS-R水面高度反演在保证厘米级精度的条件下成功率仍高达约94%,从而有效提升恶劣观测条件下GNSS-R测高性能。

     

近50年我国冰雹年代际变化及北方冰雹趋势的成因分析

利用1958-2007年中国755个站的逐日冰雹资料和同期NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及环流特征量,研究了中国近50年冰雹时空变化特征。研究表明,20世纪70年代末、80年代初我国冰雹呈下降趋势,尤其是80年代末以来降雹次数基本低于近50年的平均值,其中我国北方冰雹下降趋势比南方显著,除黄淮、江淮、长江中下游和华南地区外,全国大部分地区冰雹下降趋势都通过了0.05的显著性水平检验,尤其是东北、华北、西北和青藏高原中东部地区。分析表明,20世纪70年代末大尺度环流系统的一系列调整是我国北方冰雹减少的主要原因,200 hPa高空西风急流南移,导致我国北方纬向风场减弱,风速垂直切变减小,对流减弱;850 hPa高度场升高不利于极地冷空气南下和对流系统的建立;同时副高增强,极涡减弱使大气层结稳定,冷空气活动减弱。伴随着大尺度环流的调整,局地垂直温度场结构的变化是影响降雹次数的一个重要原因,局地0℃线和-20℃线之间过冷却水滴累积区距离缩短,不利于雹粒充分地碰并增长,这对东北、华北和西北西部降雹出现显著减少具有十分重要的作用。