Driving forces of tropical deforestation: The role of remote sensing and spatial models

Remote sensing technologies are increasingly used to monitor landscape change in many parts of the world. While the availability of extensive and timely imagery from various satellite sensors can aid in identifying the rates and patterns of deforestation, modelling techniques can evaluate the socioeconomic and biophysical forces driving deforestation processes. This paper briefly reviews some emerging spatial methodologies aimed at identifying driving forces of land use change and applies one such methodology to understand deforestation in Mexico. Satellite image classification, change analysis and econometric modelling are used to identify the rates, hotspots and drivers of deforestation in a case study of the southern Yucatán peninsular region, an enumerated global hotspot of biodiversity and tropical deforestation. In particular, the relative roles of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in driving regional deforestation rates are evaluated. Such methodological approaches can be applied to other regions of the forested tropics and contribute insights to conservation planning and policy.     

Occurrence of salt water above fresh water in dynamic equilibrium in a coastal groundwater flow system near De Panne, Belgium

A salt water lens is found above fresh water under the shore between Dunkerque (France) and Nieuwpoort (Belgium). This inverse density distribution is in a dynamic equilibrium. It develops due to the infiltration of salt water on the back shore during high tide. Under this salt water lens, water infiltrated in the adjacent dune area flows towards the sea and discharges at the seabed. This water quality distribution differs from the classic salt water wedge under fresh water described in the literature. Here, the evolution to this water quality distribution is simulated with a density dependent numerical model. A large tidal range, shore morphology and a permeable groundwater reservoir are the main conditions for the observed water quality distribution. By altering these conditions, intermediate water quality distributions between the classic salt water wedge and the one discussed here develop. Based on these simulations, it is expected that similar kinds of inverse density distribution could be present in a number of coastal areas, which have tides, a gently sloping shore and a permeable substratum.     

3D numerical modelling of fluid flow in the Val-d’Or orogenic gold district: major crustal shear zones drain fluids from overpressured vein fields

Fluid flow patterns have been determined using oxygen isotope isopleths in the Val-d’Or orogenic gold district. 3D numerical modelling of fluid flow and oxygen isotope exchange in the vein field shows that the fluid flow patterns can be reproduced if the lower boundary of the model is permeable, which represents middle or lower crustal rocks that are infiltrated by a metamorphic fluid generated at deeper levels. This boundary condition implies that the major crustal faults so conspicuous in vein fields do not act as the only major channel for upward fluid flow. The upper model boundary is impermeable except along the trace of major crustal faults where fluids are allowed to drain out of the vein field. This upper impermeable boundary condition represents a low-permeability layer in the crust that separates the overpressured fluid from the overlying hydrostatic fluid pressure regime. We propose that the role of major crustal faults in overpressured vein fields, independent of tectonic setting, is to drain hydrothermal fluids out of the vein field along a breach across an impermeable layer higher in the crust and above the vein field. This breach is crucial to allow flow out of the vein field and accumulation of metals in the fractures, and this breach has major implications for exploration for mineral resources. We propose that tectonic events that cause episodic metamorphic dehydration create a short-lived pulse of metamorphic fluid to rise along zones of transient permeability. This results in a fluid wave that propagates upward carrying metals to the mineralized area. Earthquakes along crustal shear zones cause dilation near jogs that draw fluids and deposit metals in an interconnected network of subsidiary shear zones. Fluid flow is arrested by an impermeable barrier separating the hydrostatic and lithostatic fluid pressure regimes. Fluids flow through the evolving and interconnected network of shear zones and by advection through the rock matrix. Episodic breaches in the impermeable barrier along the crustal shear zones allow fluid flow out of the vein field.     

Centrifuge modelling-based verification of response spectra design methods for some vulnerable structures

Residential RC framed structures suffered heavily during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, India. These types of structures also saw severe damage in other earthquakes such as the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey and 921 Ji-Ji earthquake in Taiwan. In this paper the seismic response of residential structures was investigated using physical modelling. Idealised soft storey and top heavy, two degrees of freedom (2DOF) portal frame structures were developed and tested on saturated and dry sand models at 25 g using the Schofield Centre 10-m Beam Centrifuge. It was possible to recreate observed field behaviour using these models. As observed in many of the recent earthquakes, soft storey structures were found to be particularly vulnerable to seismic loads. Elastic response spectra methods are often used in the design of simple portal frame structures. The seismic risk of these structures can be significantly increased due to modifications such as removal of a column or addition of heavy water tanks on the roof. The experimental data from the dynamic centrifuge tests on such soft storey or top-heavy models was used to evaluate the predictions obtained from the response spectra. Response spectra were able to predict seismic response during small to moderate intensity earthquakes, but became inaccurate during strong earthquakes and when soil structure interaction effects became important. Re-evaluation of seismic risk of such modified structures is required and time domain analyses suggested by building codes such as IBC, UBC or NEHRP may be more appropriate.     

早涝碱咸综合治理与生态环境良性循环

华北平原东部淡水资源短缺，旱涝碱成灾害限制了农业生产的可持续发展。海河的治理，解决了排洪排涝排咸出路。春季开发利用地下水包括微咸水和半咸水抗旱灌溉。夏季利用伏雨洗盐排咸，增大降雨入渗，减少径流流失，防治渍涝灾害，把降雨转化为地下水资源。秋冬引蓄河水，回灌地下水补源。以土壤与潜水的地层空间作为调节大气降水、土壤水、地下水、地表水的地下水库，以调控地下水埋深在临界动态为指标，最大限度地把时空分布不均的天然降雨转化为可持续利用的水资源。地表水地下水联合运用，促使水资源采补平衡，降雨灌溉淋洗脱盐强于干旱蒸发积盐过程，地下水淡化强于矿化过程。实现旱涝碱咸综合治理，水土资源可持续利用，经济社会可持续发展，生态环境良性循环。     

Observations And Modelling Of The On-Ice And Off-Ice Air Flow Over The Northern Baltic Sea

Two cases of on-ice and off-ice air flow characterizing the opposite weather situations over the ice-edge zone in the northern Baltic Sea are analysed on the basis of aircraft observations, and modelled using atwo-dimensional mesoscale model. The stable boundary layer (SBL) during theon-ice flow exhibited little thermal modification, but a low-level jet (LLJ) was generated at the 250-m high top of the SBL. In the model, the LLJ was associated with inertial oscillations in space, while the baroclinicity explained the shape of the wind profile well above the SBL. Although the observed LLJ was most pronounced over the ice, the modelling suggests that it was not generated by the ice edge but by the coastline some 400 km upwind of the ice edge, where a much more drastic change in the thermal stratification and surface roughness took place. The generation, maintenance, and strength of the LLJ were very sensitive to the parameterization of turbulent mixing in the SBL. In the case of the off-ice flow, the modification of the air mass and the development of a convective boundary layer (CBL) both over the ice and open sea were reasonably well modelled. Sensitivity runs suggested that it was essential to take into account the effects of subgrid-scale leads, a forest in the archipelago (which was crossed by the air flow), and water vapour condensationinto ice crystals. The heat flux from leads was particularly important for the heatbudget of the CBL, and the observed growth of the CBL was partly due to theeffective mixing over the rough and relatively warm forest.     

An integrated hydrological model for rain‐induced landslide prediction

This paper describes an extension to the Combined Hydrology And Stability Model (CHASM) to fully include the effects of vegetation and slope plan topography on slope stability. The resultant physically based numerical model is designed to be applied to site‐specific slopes in which a detailed assessment of unsaturated and saturated hydrology is required in relation to vegetation, topography and slope stability. Applications are made to the Hawke's Bay region in New Zealand where shallow‐seated instability is strongly associated with spatial and temporal trends in vegetation cover types, and the Mid‐Levels region in Hong Kong, an area subject to a variety of landslide mechanisms, some of which may be subject to strong topographic control. An improved understanding of process mechanism, afforded by the model, is critical for reliable and appropriate design of slope stabilization and remedial measures. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A mathematical hysteretic model for elastomeric isolation bearings

An analytical model for high damping elastomeric isolation bearings is presented in this paper. The model is used to describe mathematically the damping force and restoring force of the rubber material and bearing. Ten parameters to be identified from cyclic loading tests are included in the model. The sensitivity of the ten parameters in affecting the model is examined. These ten parameters are functions of a number of influence factors on the elastomer such as the rubber compound, Mullins effect, scragging effect, frequency, temperature and axial load. In this study, however, only the Mullins effect, scragging effect, frequency and temperature are investigated. Both material tests and shaking table tests were performed to validate the proposed model. Based on the comparison between the experimental and the analytical results, it is found that the proposed analytical model is capable of predicting the shear force–displacement hysteresis very accurately for both rubber material and bearing under cyclic loading reversals. The seismic response time histories of the bearing can also be captured, using the proposed analytical model, with a practically acceptable precision. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling evaporation using an artificial neural network algorithm

This paper investigates the prediction of Class A pan evaporation using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The ANN back propagation algorithm has been evaluated for its applicability for predicting evaporation from minimum climatic data. Four combinations of input data were considered and the resulting values of evaporation were analysed and compared with those of existing models. The results from this study suggest that the neural computing technique could be employed successfully in modelling the evaporation process from the available climatic data set. However, an analysis of the residuals from the ANN models developed revealed that the models showed significant error in predictions during the validation, implying loss of generalization properties of ANN models unless trained carefully. The study indicated that evaporation values could be reasonably estimated using temperature data only through the ANN technique. This would be of much use in instances where data availability is limited. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.