Transformation of Residuals to Avoid Artifacts in Geostatistical Modelling with a Trend

Trend modelling is an important part of natural resource characterization. A common approach to account for a variable with a trend is to decompose it into a relatively smoothly varying trend and a more variable residual component. Then, the residuals are stochastically modelled independent of the trend. This decomposition can result in values outside the plausible range of variability, such as grades below zero or ratios that exceed 1.0. We transform the residuals conditional to the trend component to explicitly remove these complex features prior to geostatistical modelling. Back transformation of the modelled residual values allows the complex relations to be reproduced. A petroleum-related application shows the robustness of the proposed transformation. Furthermore, a mining application shows that when this conditional transformation is applied to the original variable, instead of the residual, simulated values are assured to be nonnegative.     

The role of salinity in fluvio-deltaic morphodynamics: A long-term modelling study

Salinity difference between terrestrial river discharge and oceanic tidal water plays a role in modifying the local flow field and, as a consequence, estuarine morphodynamics. Although widely recognized, recent numerical studies exploring the long-term morphological evolution of river-influenced estuaries with two-dimensional, depth-averaged models have mostly neglected salinity. Using a three-dimensional morphodynamic model, we aim to gain more insight into the effect of salinity on the morphodynamics of fluvio-deltaic systems. Model results indicate that the resultant estuarine morphology established after 600 years differs remarkably when a salinity gradient is included. A fan-shaped river-mouth delta exhibits less seaward expansion and is cut through by narrower channels when salinity is included. The inclusion of salinity tends to generate estuarine circulation, which favours landward sediment transport and hence limits the growth of the delta while enhancing the development of intertidal areas. The formation of deltaic channel–shoal patterns resulting from morphodynamic evolution tends to strengthen salinity stratification, which is characterized by an increased gradient Richardson number. The direction of the depth-averaged residual sediment transport over a tide may be opposite to the direction of residual velocity, indicating the significant influence of baroclinic effects on the net sediment transport direction (and hence morphological change). The effect of salinity on morphological evolution becomes less profound when the strength of tidal or fluvial forcing is dominant over the other. The effects of sediment type and flocculation, which are particularly important when salinity gradients are present, are also discussed. Overall, this study highlights that neglecting salinity to simulate long-term estuarine morphodynamics requires more careful justification, particularly when the environment is characterized by fine sediment types (favouring suspended transport), and relatively large river discharge and estuarine depth (favouring baroclinic effects). © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of differing coverage of moss‐dominated soil crusts on hydrological processes and implications for disturbance in the Mu Us Sandland,China

To study the effects of biological soil crusts (BSCs) on hydrological processes and their implications for disturbance in the Mu Us Sandland, the water infiltration, evaporation and soil moisture of high coverage (100% BSCs), middle coverage (40% BSCs) and low coverage (0% BSCs, bare sand) of moss‐dominated crusts were conducted in this study, respectively. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the main effects of moss‐dominated crusts in the Mu Us Sandland on the infiltration of rainwater were to reduce the infiltration depths and to retain the limited rainwater in shallow soil; (2) moss‐dominated crusts have no significant effects on daily evaporation when the volumetric water content at 4 cm depth in 100% BSCs (VWC4) was over 24.7%, on enhanced daily evaporation when the VWC4 ranged from 6.5% to 24.7% and on reduced daily evaporation when the VWC4 was less than 6.5%; and (3) decreasing the coverage of moss‐dominated crusts (from 100% to 40%) did not significantly change its effects on infiltration, evaporation and soil moisture. Our results demonstrated that for the growth and regeneration of shrubs, which were dominated by Artemisia ordosica in the Mu Us Sandland, high coverage of moss‐dominated crusts has negative effects on hydrological processes, and these negative effects could not be significantly reduced by decreasing the coverage of moss‐dominated crusts from 100% to 40%. Therefore, for the sustained and healthy development of shrub communities in the Mu Us Sandland, it is necessary to take appropriate measures for the well‐developed BSCs in the sites with high vegetation coverage in the rainy season. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Numerical inversion of deformation caused by pressure sources: application to Mount Etna (Italy)

The interpretation of geodetic data in volcanic areas is usually based on analytical deformation models. Although numerical finite element (FE) modelling allows realistic features such as topography and crustal heterogeneities to be included, the technique is not computationally convenient for solving inverse problems using classical methods. In this paper, we develop a general tool to perform inversions of geodetic data by means of 3-D FE models. The forward model is a library of numerical displacement solutions, where each entry of the library is the surface displacement due to a single stress component applied to an element of the grid. The final solution is a weighted combination of the six stress components applied to a single element-source. The pre-computed forward models are implemented in a global search algorithm, followed by an appraisal of the sampled solutions. After providing extended testing, we apply the method to model the 1993–1997 inflation phase at Mt Etna, documented by GPS and EDM measurements. We consider four different forward libraries, computed in models characterized by homogeneous/heterogeneous medium and flat/topographic free surface. Our results suggest that the elastic heterogeneities of the medium can significantly alter the position of the inferred source, while the topography has minor effect.     

Data collection methodology for dynamic temperature model testing and corroboration

This article describes a data collection approach for determining the significance of individual heat fluxes within streams with an emphasis on testing (i.e. identification of possible missing heat fluxes), development, calibration and corroboration of a dynamic temperature model. The basis for developing this approach was a preliminary temperature modelling effort on the Virgin River in southwestern Utah during a low‐flow period that suggested important components of the energy balance might be missing in the original standard surface‐flux temperature model. Possible missing heat fluxes were identified as bed conduction, hyporheic exchange, dead zone warming and exchange and poor representation of the amount of solar radiation entering the water column. To identify and estimate the relative importance of the missing components, a comprehensive data collection effort was developed and implemented. In particular, a method for measuring shortwave radiation behaviour in the water column and an in situ method for separating out bed conduction and hyporheic influences were established. The resulting data and subsequent modelling effort indicate that hyporheic and dead zone heat fluxes are important, whereas solar radiation reflection at the water surface was found to be insignificant. Although bed conduction can be significant in certain rivers, it was found to have little effect on the overall heat budget for this section of the Virgin River. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of connectivity theory to model the impact of terrace failure on runoff in semi‐arid catchments

Terraces are a common feature of Mediterranean landscapes. In many places they are no longer maintained so that the number of intact terraces is in prolonged decline. The aim of this paper is to examine the effect of terrace removal and failure on hydrological connectivity and peak discharge in an agricultural catchment (475 ha) in south‐east Spain. The situation of 2006 is compared to that in 1956 and to a scenario without terraces (S2). The spatial distribution of concentrated flow was mapped after four storms in 2006. The degree of connectivity was quantified by means of connectivity functions and related to storm characteristics, land use and topography. For 1956, 2006 and scenario S2, connectivity functions and peak discharge to the river were determined for a storm with a return period of 8·2 years. The results show that the decrease in intact terraces has led to a strong increase in connectivity and discharge. The contributing area to the river system has increased by a factor 3·2 between 1956 and 2006. If all terraces were to be removed (scenario S2), the contributing area may further increase by a factor 6·0 compared to 2006. The spatial extent of concentrated flow and the degree of connectivity are related to storm magnitude as expressed by the erosivity index (EI₃₀). Although a large part of the concentrated flow (25–50%) occurs on dirt roads, it appears that croplands become a major source of runoff with increasing rainfall. The results suggest that connectivity theory can be used to improve rainfall–runoff models in semi‐arid areas. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simultaneous identification of parameter,initial condition,and boundary condition in groundwater modelling

In this paper, we perform an inverse method to simultaneously estimate aquifer parameters, initial condition, and boundary conditions in groundwater modelling. The parameter estimation is extended to a complete inverse problem that makes the calibrated groundwater flow model more realistic. The adjoint state method, the gradient search method, and the least square error algorithm are combined to build the optimization procedure. Horizontal two‐dimensional groundwater flow in a confined aquifer is exemplified to demonstrate the correlation between unknowns, the contribution of observation, as well as the suitability of applying the inverse method. The correlation analysis shows the connection between storage coefficient and initial condition. Besides, transmissivity and boundary conditions are also highly correlated. More observations at different location and time are necessary to provide sufficient information. A time series of unsteady head is requested for estimation of storage coefficient and initial condition. Observation near boundary is very effective for boundary condition estimation. The observation at pumping well mostly contributes to the estimation of transmissivity. According to all observations, it is possible to identify parameters, initial condition, and boundary condition simultaneously. Furthermore, the results not only illustrate the traditional assumption of known boundary condition but also initial condition, which may cause an incorrect estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种洪涝灾害事件信息建模方法

我国洪涝灾害频发且危害巨大,为有效防灾、减灾和救灾,需建立洪涝灾害事件信息模型,表示和共享洪涝灾害信息。然而,目前事件信息模型主要是表示静态信息,缺乏对洪涝灾害事件动态过程的表示。本文从观测角度出发,建立顾及洪涝灾害事件阶段和动态过程的洪涝灾害事件信息模型。围绕洪涝灾害事件信息模型,提出了10类需建模的元素,并以MOF（Meta Object Facility）建模框架构建了十元组模型,通过映射方法实现模型编码方案与事件模式语言的映射。最后,以2010年梁子湖洪涝灾害模拟为例,开展了模型分阶段建立过程实验。结果表明,本文提出的模型能表示洪涝灾害事件的动态信息和实现洪涝灾害事件的动态建模。     

Numerical modelling of the potential effects of a dam on a coastal aquifer in S. Spain

This study presents the results of a three‐dimensional variable‐density numerical modelling of the Motril‐Salobreña coastal aquifer and the possible effects of the entry into service in May 2005 of the Rules Dam, located just 17 km from the coast. Present parameters of the Motril‐Salobreña aquifer show that the system's conditions are very similar to a natural regime. The dam will substantially alter aquifer recharge, as the entry flow through the alluvial sediments of the Guadalfeo River will be entirely cut off or drastically reduced. Different scenarios reproducing the possible evolution of the aquifer under operation of the Rules Dam have been modelled. In most cases, results indicate that the conditions of the aquifer would worsen, with a general advance of the freshwater–saltwater interface. The area with most risk of saltwater intrusion is the old mouth of the Guadalfeo River, where the mixing zone could advance 1200 m inland. It is proposed that maintaining a 5–6 Mm³ year^?1 ‘ecological flow’ in the Guadalfeo River could prevent this saline advance. This application demonstrates that variable‐density models are potentially useful tools for estimating the effects of dams on the hydrodynamic and hydrochemical conditions of a coastal aquifer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exhumation during oblique transpression: The Feiran–Solaf region, Egypt

The Feiran–Solaf metamorphic complex of Sinai, Egypt, is one of the highest grade metamorphic complexes of a series of basement domes that crop out throughout the Arabian-Nubian Shield. In the Eastern Desert of Egypt these basement domes have been interpreted as metamorphic core complexes exhumed in extensional settings. For the Feiran–Solaf complex an interpretation of the exhumation mechanism is difficult to obtain with structural arguments as all of its margins are obliterated by post-tectonic granites. Here, metamorphic methods are used to investigate its tectonic history and show that the complex was characterized by a single metamorphic cycle experiencing peak metamorphism at ∼700–750 °C and 7–8 kbar and subsequent isothermal decompression to ∼4–5 kbar, followed by near isobaric cooling to 450 °C. Correlation of this metamorphic evolution with the deformation history shows that peak metamorphism occurred prior to the compressive deformation phase D ₂, while the compressive D ₂ and D ₃ deformation occurred during the near isothermal decompression phase of the P–T loop. We interpret the concurrence of decompression of the P–T path and compression by structural shortening as evidence for the Najd fault system exhuming the complex in an oblique transpressive regime. However, final exhumation from ∼15 km depth must have occurred due to an unrelated mechanism.