Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood damage is an important component for risk-oriented flood design, risk mapping, financial appraisals and comparative risk analyses. However, research on flood-loss modelling, especially in the commercial sector, has not gained much attention so far. Therefore, extensive data about flood losses were collected for affected companies via telephone surveys after the floods of 2002, 2005 and 2006 in Germany. Potential loss determining factors were analysed. The new Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was developed on the basis of 642 loss cases. Losses are estimated depending on water depth, sector and company size as well as precaution and contamination. The model can be applied to the micro-scale, i.e. to single production sites as well as to the meso-scale, i.e. land-use units, thus enabling its countrywide application.

Citation Kreibich, H., Seifert, I., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Development of FLEMOcs – a new model for the estimation of flood losses in the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1302–1314.     

Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector

Abstract

The estimation of flood loss is difficult, especially in the commercial sector, because of its great inhomogeneity. However, the reliability of loss modelling is fairly unknown, since flood-loss models are scarcely validated. The newly developed Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the commercial sector (FLEMOcs) was validated on the micro-scale using a leave-one-out cross-validation procedure. Additionally, different meso-scale loss functions were compared. Meso-scale model application was undertaken in 19 municipalities which were affected during the 2002 flood in Germany. Model results were compared with the results of three other loss models, as well as with official loss records. The micro-scale validation shows very good results, with no bias and mean absolute errors between 23 and 31%. The meso-scale validation indicates that FLEMOcs provides good results, especially in large areas with many affected companies where high losses are expected.

Citation Seifert, I., Kreibich, H., Merz, B. & Thieken, A. H. (2010) Application and validation of FLEMOcs – a flood-loss estimation model for the commercial sector. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(8), 1315–1324.     

Sedimentation and new operational curves for Mosul Dam,Iraq

Abstract

Mosul Dam is one of the biggest hydraulic structures in Iraq. Its storage capacity is 11.11 × 10⁹ m³ at a maximum operation level of 330 m a.s.l. The dam became operational in 1986 and no survey has been conducted to determine its storage capacity and establish new operational curves since this date. A topographic map of scale 1:50 000 dated 1983 was converted into triangulated irregular network (TIN) format using the ArcGIS program to evaluate the operational curves. Then the reservoir was surveyed in 2011 to establish the reduction in its storage capacity and to develop new operational curves. The results indicated that the reduction in the storage capacity of the reservoir was 14.73%. This implies that the rate of sedimentation within the reservoir was 45.72 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. These results indicate that most of the sediment was deposited within the upper zone of the reservoir where the River Tigris enters the reservoir.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Issa, E.I., Al-Ansari, N., and Knutsson, S., 2013. Sedimentation and new operational curves for Mosul Dam, Iraq. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1456–1466.     

基础隔震单层偏心结构扭转地震反应分析

采用微分型滞回恢复力模型模拟隔震支座的恢复力特性，对基础隔震单层偏心结构的扭转地震反应进行分析，研究隔震系统偏心距和上部结构偏心距对结构扭转反应的影响。结果表明，采用隔震技术可以显著降低隔震结构的扭转地震反应。     

Invariant rotational curves in Sitnikov's Problem

The Sitnikov's Problem is a Restricted Three-Body Problem of Celestial Mechanics depending on a parameter, the eccentricity,e. The Hamiltonian,H(z, v, t, e), does not depend ont ife=0 and we have an integrable system; ife is small the KAM Theory proves the existence of invariant rotational curves, IRC. For larger eccentricities, we show that there exist two complementary sequences of intervals of values ofe that accumulate to the maximum admissible value of the eccentricity, 1, and such that, for one of the sequences IRC around a fixed point persist. Moreover, they shrink to the planez=0 ase tends to 1.     

考虑双轴水平力耦合效应的RPC箱型桥墩恢复力模型试验研究

通过3个施加常轴力的RPC箱型桥墩试件的水平反复荷载试验,考虑水平荷载作用方向对RPC箱型墩抗震性能的影响,分析各试件滞回特性和骨架曲线的特点,对影响RPC箱型桥墩恢复力模型的主要因素进行数值回归分析,建立了计入双轴水平力耦合效应的RPC箱型桥墩恢复力模型。利用基于平截面假定的纤维模型法编制考虑轴力二阶效应的双轴压弯构件非线性分析程序,并对RPC箱型桥墩试件的骨架曲线和滞回曲线进行数值模拟。通过与试验结果进行分析对比表明:所提出的恢复力模型具有较好的精确性,能够较好地模拟和反映RPC箱型桥墩的抗震性能。     

利用自记水位仪记录的连续曲线求水文地质参数

水文地质参数是进行地下水资源评价和开发利用的科学依据。给水度（μ）和降水入渗补给系数（α）是重要的水文地质参数。自记水位仪记录的是地下水位的连续变化,它在时空获得的信息量远超过目前测水钟的观测方法。本文利用自记水位仪记录的连续曲线,求得给水度（μ）和降水入渗补给系数（α）。     

基于萤火虫和蝙蝠群智能算法的瑞雷波频散曲线反演

反演瑞雷波频散曲线能有效获取地层横波速度和厚度.但由于其高度的非线性、多参数、多极值等特点,传统的全局搜索方法易出现收敛速度慢、早熟收敛及搜索精度低的问题.鉴于此,本文提出并测试了基于萤火虫优化算法（FA）和带惯性权重的蝙蝠优化算法（WBA）的新的瑞雷波频散曲线反演策略.在瑞雷波频散曲线反演中,FA全局搜索能力强,但后期搜索精度低,而WBA局部搜索能力强,搜索精度高,但易出现早熟收敛.故本文将二者结合,提出了一种新的优化策略,称其为WFBA,即在反演前期使用FA,后期使用WBA,很好地解决了FA后期搜索精度低及WBA早熟收敛的问题.本文首先反演了三个典型理论模型的无噪声、含噪声的数据,验证了WFBA对瑞雷波数据反演的有效性与稳定性.然后将WFBA与WBA、FA单独反演以及不含惯性权重的FBA和粒子群优化算法（PSO）反演的结果进行了对比,说明了WFBA相对于WBA、FA、FBA和PSO具有更稳定、收敛速度更快、求解精度更高等优点.最后,反演了来自美国怀俄明地区的实测资料,检验了WFBA对瑞雷波数据反演的实用性.理论模型试算和实测资料分析表明,WFBA很适用于瑞雷波频散曲线的定量解释,具有很高的实用性价值.

     

Soil‐pile interaction in the pile vertical vibration considering true three‐dimensional wave effect of soil

The dynamic response of an end bearing pile embedded in a linear visco‐elastic soil layer with hysteretic type damping is theoretically investigated when the pile is subjected to a time‐harmonic vertical loading at the pile top. The soil is modeled as a three‐dimensional axisymmetric continuum in which both its radial and vertical displacements are taken into account. The pile is assumed to be vertical, elastic and of uniform circular cross section. By using two potential functions to decompose the displacements of the soil layer and utilizing the separation of variables technique, the dynamic equilibrium equation is uncoupled and solved. At the interface of soil‐pile system, the boundary conditions of displacement continuity and force equilibrium are invoked to derive a closed‐form solution of the vertical dynamic response of the pile in frequency domain. The corresponding inverted solutions in time domain for the velocity response of a pile subjected to a semi‐sine excitation force applied at the pile top are obtained by means of inverse Fourier transform and the convolution theorem. A comparison with two other simplified solutions has been performed to verify the more rigorous solutions presented in this paper. Using the developed solutions, a parametric study has also been conducted to investigate the influence of the major parameters of the soil‐pile system on the vertical vibration characteristics of the pile. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.