鄂陵湖晚全新世沉积物记录的黄河源区气候环境变化

通过对青藏高原黄河源区鄂陵湖35cm长的沉积物岩芯（NR-1）中总有机碳含量（TOC）、总氮含量（TN）、碳氮比值（C_org/N_tot）以及有机碳同位素（δ¹³C_org）和总氮同位素（δ¹⁵N_tot）等地球化学指标的分析,并结合青海地区文献资料记载的人口数量变化以及高原湖泊水位记录,对研究区近1500a以来的气候环境变化进行了深入探讨。结果表明：近两百多年以来鄂陵湖沉积物中TOC和TN指标呈现明显上升的趋势,与青海东部地区人口数量变化趋势一致,表明近代人类活动已经对青藏高原最大淡水湖生态系统产生了显著的影响;而沉积物中δ¹³C_org值变化与青海湖水文环境重建指标具有可比性,说明高原大型淡水湖泊沉积物δ¹³C_org值可指示湖泊水位波动;此外δ¹⁵N_tot值变化趋势与青藏高原东北部已有的古温度记录总体一致,推测鄂陵湖沉积物δ¹⁵N_tot值可能响应了湖泊水体营养状态的变化,间接指示了湖泊夏季表层水温的波动。本研究为青藏高原腹地高海拔现代湖泊沉积物中有机碳和总氮含量及其同位素指标的解译提供了全新的思路。

     

Dynamics and circulation regimes of terrestrial planets

By the study of simple analogues, either in the form of simplified numerical models or laboratory experiments, considerable insights may be gained as to the likely roles of planetary size, rotation, thermal stratification and other factors in determining the principal length scales, styles of global circulation and dominant waves and instability processes active in the respective climate systems of Earth, Mars, Venus and Titan. In this review, we explore aspects of these analogues and demonstrate the importance of a number of key dimensionless parameters, most notably thermal Rossby and Rhines numbers and a measure of the dominant frictional or radiative timescale, in defining the type of circulation regime to be expected in a prototype planetary atmosphere subject to axisymmetric driving. These considerations help to place Mars, Venus, Titan and Earth into an appropriate context, and may also lay the foundations for predicting and understanding the climate and circulation regimes of (as yet undiscovered) Earth-like extra-solar planets. However, as recent discoveries of ‘super-Earth’ planets around some nearby stars are beginning to reveal, the parameter space determined from axisymmetrically forced prototype atmospheres may be incomplete and other factors, such as the possibility of tidally locked rotation and tidal forcing, may also need to be taken into account for some classes of extra-solar planet.     

Discretization approach in integrated Hydrologic Model for surface and groundwater interaction

The commonly used discretization approaches for distributed hydrological models can be broadly categorized into four types,based on the nature of the discrete components:Regular Mesh,Triangular Irregular Networks(TINs),Representative Elementary Watershed(REWs) and Hydrologic Response Units(HRUs).In this paper,a new discretization approach for landforms that have similar hydrologic properties is developed and discussed here for the Integrated Hydrologic Model(IHM),a combining simulation of surface and groundwater processes,accounting for the interaction between the systems.The approach used in the IHM is to disaggregate basin parameters into discrete landforms that have similar hydrologic properties.These landforms may be impervious areas,related areas,areas with high or low clay or organic fractions,areas with significantly different depths-to-water-table,and areas with different types of land cover or different land uses.Incorporating discrete landforms within basins allows significant distributed parameter analysis,but requires an efficient computational structure.The IHM integration represents a new approach interpreting fluxes across the model interface and storages near the interface for transfer to the appropriate model component,accounting for the disparate discretization while rigidly maintaining mass conservation.The discretization approaches employed in IHM will provide some ideas and insights which are helpful to those researchers who have been working on the integrated models for surface-groundwater interaction.     

中国绿洲化及其研究进展

绿洲化是干旱区人与自然因素共同作用下荒漠向绿洲转变的过程。中国绿洲面积从20世纪50年代初期的20 000 km²扩展到2000年的86 000 km²,扩大了3.3倍。绿洲化过程不仅伴随着景观格局的变化,而且会引发土壤、生物、气象和水文等要素的变化。分析了近2 000 a来中国干旱区绿洲的演变过程,评述了绿洲化过程中景观变化,其对绿洲稳定性的影响及绿洲化过程中土壤要素、气象水文要素变化等诸多方面的研究进展,同时提出未来的研究中应加强绿洲化过程研究框架的建立、绿洲化过程中关键因素变化及绿洲化关键过程研究。     

On the quest for chaotic attractors in hydrological processes

Abstract

In the last two decades, several researchers have claimed to have discovered low-dimensional determinism in hydrological processes, such as rainfall and runoff, using methods of chaotic analysis. However, such results have been criticized by others. In an attempt to offer additional insights into this discussion, it is shown here that, in some cases, merely the careful application of concepts of dynamical systems, without doing any calculation, provides strong indications that hydrological processes cannot be (low-dimensional) deterministic chaoti. Furthermore, it is shown that specific peculiarities of hydrological processes on fine time scales, such as asymmetric, J-shaped distribution functions, intermittency, and high autocorrelations, are synergistic factors that can lead to misleading conclusions regarding the presence of (low-dimensional) deterministic chaos. In addition, the recovery of a hypothetical attractor from a time series is put as a statistical estimation problem whose study allows, among others, quantification of the required sample size; this appears to be so huge that it prohibits any accurate estimation, even with the largest available hydrological records. All these arguments are demonstrated using appropriately synthesized theoretical examples. Finally, in light of the theoretical analyses and arguments, typical real-world hydrometeorological time series, such as relative humidity, rainfall, and runoff, are explored and none of them is found to indicate the presence of chaos.     

分布式流域水文模型水量过程模拟——以黄河河源区为例

文章分析了分布式水文模型、遥感和地理信息系统技术在流域径流模拟过程中的结合点,采用数字网格技术,以流域水量变化对地表土地覆被和气候变化响应过程为目的,讨论利用分布式水文模型研究下垫面和气候变化下流域水量响应过程的一般方法,并以黄河河源区为实例进行验证。     

粤北区域水循环的影响及生态效应研究

如何既高速发展经济,又保护区域环境,使山区经济进入可持续发展的良性循环,对经济正处于转型阶段的粤北来说是十分关键的战略性问题。研究粤北的地表、地下水状况和规律调查,探讨生态破坏的程度以及修复的可能性,提出可行的治理对策。构建人与自然协调的地表、地下水循环系统以及相关的生态环境系统,使人与自然进入可持续发展的良性循环。     

四川地区季节性水文负荷对地壳变形及活动断裂带应力应变的影响

利用四川地区GNSS观测数据研究该地区季节性负荷位移场及季节性负荷应力应变场,并结合降水数据分析该地区季节性水文负荷对地壳变形及活动断裂带附近应力应变的影响.结果表明,四川地区地表发生的季节性位移与降水之间存在很强的时空相关性;水文负荷周期性变化产生的负荷应力扰动对活动断裂带的应力积累模式具有一定的调节作用,进而影响活...     

大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展(英文)

The regional hydrological system is extremely complex because it is affected not only by physical factors but also by human dimensions.And the hydrological models play a very important role in simulating the complex system.However,there have not been effective methods for the model reliability and uncertainty analysis due to its complexity and difficulty.The uncertainties in hydrological modeling come from four important aspects:uncertainties in input data and parameters,uncertainties in model structure,uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions.This paper systematically reviewed the recent advances in the study of the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model on the basis of uncertainty sources.Also,the shortcomings and insufficiencies in the uncertainty analysis for complex hydrological models are pointed out.And then a new uncertainty quantification platform PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification methods were introduced,which will be a powerful tool and platform for uncertainty analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models.Finally,some future perspectives on uncertainty quantification are put forward.     

DISTRIBUTIONS AND HYDROLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINSTORMS AND FLOODS IN CHINA

I.horoductionPleNorthwestPacificOceanisti1elnostfrequentlyaffeCtedareaoftropicalcyclone(TC).AboLIt36percentTCoftheworldoccurinffosarea[2],andthenumberofTCWhichlandedonChinawiti1n1akimumwindforcescalesoverlOisabout35percentofti1atintheeastemcoastalcoLUitriesofAsia[l].BothrainstormsandfloodsMide,theidriuenceofTCareheaVyinChina,suchastherainfalldePthof2749mm/3datXinliao,Taiwanandpeakdischargeof44,6oOm'/satHuanggo(55,42okn'),YalujiangRjver.Therefore,TCisanimportantfaCtorforflooddisas…