松辽盆地增强型地热系统开发选区评价

干热岩是一种新型清洁能源,其开发利用区的确定十分重要。笔者首先通过对松辽盆地热源、资源量、导热、聚热、地震活动5个方面资料的收集,提出了松辽盆地增强型地热系统开发选区适宜性评价方法;然后选取8项评价因子,利用ArcGIS 10.2平台将松辽盆地划分为26个评价单元,根据打分法和层次分析法(AHP)求取每个因子的权重;最后,对26个选区进行综合评价,将其分成适宜、较适宜、一般适宜、较不适宜和不适宜5个等级。结果表明:松辽盆地干热岩开发适宜区和较适宜区主要集中在盆地中部的大安—大庆一带,确定的适宜选区范围对今后干热岩开发工作具有一定指导作用。     

A sensitivity of squall-line intensity to environmental static stability under various shear and moisture conditions

Squall lines develop in various climate regions having diverse environmental profiles of wind shear, moisture, and temperature. In order to explore the sensitivity of squall lines to these environmental profiles, we have performed an extensive set of numerical simulations under various shear and moisture conditions in midlatitude-continental and tropical–oceanic temperature environments. From the results of the sensitivity simulations and the analyses of the environmental parameters, it is found that the static stability in a convectively unstable layer is of primary importance in determining the strength of squall lines. Under temperature environments having the same static stability, convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitable water content (PWC) well describe the squall-line intensity. Vertical shear also plays an important role in determining the squall-line structure as well as the intensity through the interaction with surface cold pool. The combination of the static stability in a convectively unstable layer, CAPE, and PWC should be examined in diagnosing the intensity of squall lines that develop with an optimal shear for their environment.     

面向空间数据挖掘的MCSs移动和传播影响因素分析

利用1998年6～8月青藏高原逐时红外遥感云图及青藏高原高分辨率有限区域数值预报值(HLAFS), 运用空间数据挖掘的相关分析技术对青藏高原MCSs的移动和传播与其周围环境场中物理量场之间的关系进行了研究.结果表明:它们东移出高原(105(E)与其东侧在400、500hPa上的高度(H)、涡度(VOR)、散度(DIV)、水汽通量散度(IFVQ)、垂直速度(W)、指数(K)等6个物理量的特征值,以及其自身形状密切相关.这对MCSs的移动和传播这一迄今的难题提供了研究思路和方法,同时对预报高原MCSs东移影响长江中下游地区的强降水也很有帮助.     

论层序地层学与含油气系统在油气勘探中的联系——以鄂尔多斯中生代盆地为例

虽然层序地层学与含油气系统理论的各自研究对象和研究方法不同，但由于层序地层学研究对象(沉积岩)是含油气系统研究对象(油气)的载体，二者可以由含油气盆地分析有机的结合起来。层序地层分析包含了对含油气系统的地质要素及成藏作用载体的分析，因而沉积层序的组成单元与含油气系统的地质要素有必然的联系：在一个沉积盆地的数个沉积层序中，成熟烃源岩往往是地史中具一定埋深、分布广、厚度大、有机质含量高的凝缩层，这个凝缩层往往是一个构造超层序的最大海(湖)泛面；储集岩往往是成熟烃源岩之上层序的低水位体系域或紧邻成熟烃源岩的高水位体系域；有效盖层为储集岩之上层序的水进体系域及凝缩层；成熟烃源岩之上的沉积层序为上覆岩层；低水位体系域储集岩有可能沿上倾方向尖灭，被层序界面及其上层序的水进体系域岩性圈闭；除构造裂缝外，低水位体系域下切谷可作为油气向上运移通道；一个含油气系统往往跨越不同的沉积层序甚至构造超层序。     

Quantifying the relative impact of hydrological and hydraulic modelling parameterizations on uncertainty of inundation maps

ABSTRACT

Flood risk management strongly relies on inundation models for river basin zoning in flood-prone and risk-free areas. Floodplain zoning is significantly affected by the diverse and concurrent uncertainties that characterize the modelling chain used for producing inundation maps. In order to quantify the relative impact of the uncertainties linked to a lumped hydrological (rainfall–runoff) model and a FLO-2D hydraulic model, a Monte Carlo procedure is proposed in this work. The hydrological uncertainty is associated with the design rainfall estimation method, while the hydraulic model uncertainty is associated with roughness parameterization. This uncertainty analysis is tested on the case study of the Marta coastal catchment in Italy, by comparing the different frequency, extent and depth of inundation simulations associated with varying rainfall forcing and/or hydraulic model roughness realizations. The results suggest a significant predominance of the hydrological uncertainty with respect to the hydraulic one on the overall uncertainty associated with the simulated inundation maps.     

Stochasticity of planetary orbits in double star systems. II

Cosmogonical theories as well as recent observations allow us to expect the existence of numerous exo-planets, including in binaries. Then arises the dynamical problem of stability for planetary orbits in double star systems. Modern computations have shown that many such stable orbits do exist, among which we consider orbits around one component of the binary (called S-type orbits). Within the framework of the elliptic plane restricted three-body problem, the phase space of initial conditions for fictitious S-type planetary orbits is systematically explored, and limits for stability had been previously established for four nearby binaries which components are nearly of solar type. Among stable orbits, found up to distance of their sun of the order of half the binarys periastron distance, nearly-circular ones exist for the three binaries (among the four) having a not too high orbital eccentricity. In the first part of the present paper, we compare these previous results with orbits around a 16 Cyg B-like binarys component with varied eccentricities, and we confirm the existence of stable nearly-circular S-type planetary orbits but for very high binarys eccentricity. It is well-known that chaos may destroy this stability after a very long time (several millions years or more). In a first paper, we had shown that a stable planetary orbit, although chaotic, could keep its stability for more than a billion years (confined chaos). Then, in the second part of the present paper, we investigate the chaotic behaviour of two sets of planetary orbits among the stable ones found around 16 Cyg B-like components in the first part, one set of strongly stable orbits and the other near the limit of stability. Our results show that the stability of the first set is not destroyed when the binarys eccentricity increases even to very high values (0.95), but that the stability of the second set is destroyed as soon as the eccentricity reaches the value 0.8.     

泉州市地震应急与救援工作体系的建设

本文简要介绍泉州市地震局依靠各级政府、有关部门和全社会的共同努力 ,以落实地震应急预案为楔机促进“预、防、救”三大体系工全面发展的工作经验 :一、以落实《地震应急预案》为抓手 ,争取项目 ,以项目带动一切 ;二、结合社会转型全面加大防震减灾知识宣传力度 ;三、不以经费的来源划分你我 ,动员全社会的力量建立健全预警应急机制。     

Decision-support systems for groundwater protection: innovative tools for resource management

Governmental authorities are forced by law to make decisions within the framework of European, national and regional directives in the fields of spatial planning, groundwater and environmental protection. These tasks can be supported by a decision-support system, which integrates data from various sources and helps to make decision processes more effective and transparent. Basic work for such a decision support system has been done in a transnational and interdisciplinary project (Interreg II C: KATER), including metadata definition, metadata system, cartographic tools and GIS tools. The direct integration of these tools and information in the decision process will be implemented in the next few years (project KATER II).     

Distinguishing streamflow trends caused by changes in climate,forest cover,and permafrost in a large watershed in northeastern China

Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long‐term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km²) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity‐based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (?38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (?22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated.     

The Persian calendar for 3000 years

Using the analytical theory of the motion of the Earth around the Sun the times of the vernal (Spring) equinox has been calculated over the period from the Hijra (AD 622) to AD 3800. These data alone allow to decide whether a particular Persian (or Jalaali) calendar year is common or leap. Presented analysis shows that an algorithm implemented in the so called Khayam program is valid for the year 1799 to 2256 (1178 to 1634 Jalaali). A concise algorithm has been worked out that reconstructs the pattern of leap years over time span of about 3000 years. FORTRAN routines for conversion between the Jalaali, Gregorian and Julian calendars and the Julian Day Number are presented.