城市设计暴雨频率计算问题

城市设计暴雨,具有历时短、设计标准较低的特点,与常用的频率计算方法不尽相同。简述了暴雨系列的取样问题;改正了与经验频率有关的计算公式;提出以经验适线法来拟合暴雨系列呈反Ｓ形的分布;比较了推求设计暴雨的几种方法,认为超定量综合法有偏于安全的结果;列述了我国一些城市的暴雨强度公式,其中的参数无一定的规律性,期望进一步工作,在点面上进行协调。     

A review of underlying surface parameterization methods in hydrologic models

Journal of Geographical Sciences - Numerous topography, land-cover, land-use, and soil-type parameterization methods are required to simulate the hydrologic cycle. In this paper, using the...     

东北大西洋北海渔场鱼类群落结构年际变化研究

根据2001-2015年东北大西洋北海渔场进行的国际底拖网调查渔获数据,采用生物多样性指数和多元统计分析研究该海域群落结构的年际变化,并利用格局转变贯序t检验的方法研究鱼类种群的转变规律,结合环境因素与捕捞因素分析群落结构变化的原因。结果显示:2001-2015年北海渔场共出现280种渔业资源,其中鱼类有222种,资源丰度波动较大;物种多样性整体呈上升趋势。聚类分析和非度量多维标度排序分析表明,研究期间大致分为2001-2003年、2004-2011年和2012-2015年3个阶段。大西洋鲱分别在2004年和2014年种群结构发生格局转变,格局转变指数（RSI）分别为-0.45和0.41;黑线鳕在2003年和2012年格局发生转变,RSI值分别为-0.58和-0.66;黍鲱在2014年格局发生转变,RSI值为2。通过对环境因素与捕捞因素的分析发现,北海渔场群落格局第一次发生转变主要受捕捞因素影响,第二次发生转变主要受环境因素影响。     

夏季南极普里兹湾氮吸收受融冰调控

本研究将稳定同位素（¹⁵N）与放射性核素（²²⁶Ra）示踪相结合,探讨了2006年夏季南极普里兹湾融冰过程对氮吸收的调控作用。硝酸盐及铵盐的比吸收速率均与浓度呈正相关关系,表明底物浓度效应的存在。开阔洋区具有较高的f比值,而在埃默里冰架附近f比值低得多。f比值与冰融水份额之间存在负相关关系,暗示融冰过程在调控水体氮吸收方面起着重要作用。融冰改变了当地上层水体的层化条件,显著地影响南大洋的生物泵效率及对大气二氧化碳的吸收。本研究为南大洋上层水体碳、氮动力学的调控机制提供了新的认识,且有助于对历史记录的解读及对未来气候变化的预测。     

新月形沙丘与线性沙丘共存区域风况特征

与火星类似,柴达木盆地的新月形沙丘和线性沙丘共存现象引起了众多学者的关注。为探究该现象的发育环境和形成条件,以全球典型新月形沙丘和线性沙丘共存区域为研究对象,选取研究区域附近气象站点3a风速、风向数据,分析这些典型区的风况特征。结果表明:不同的新月形沙丘与线性沙丘共存区域,风速存在明显差异,柴达木盆地和塔克拉玛干沙漠共存区域年平均风速和最大风速均小于沙特阿拉伯沙漠和撒哈拉沙漠;起沙风风向控制沙丘走向,多数共存区域全年起沙风风向较单一,部分区域存在明显的主次风,且主次风风向夹角为锐角;新月形沙丘和线性沙丘可共存于在高、中、低风能环境,中、低风向变率锐双峰或宽单峰风况,沙丘发育受风能环境影响较小,可能受风向变率、下垫面和沙源供应影响大;合成输沙势方向与沙丘走向一致且季节变化小,输沙方向稳定。部分气象站点距离研究区较远,对于研究区的风况指示意义有限。     

Optimal precursors of double-gyre regime transitions with an adjoint-free method

In this paper, we find the optimal precursors which can cause double-gyre regime transitions based on conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Firstly, we simulate the multiple-equilibria regimes of double-gyre circulation under different viscosity coefficient and obtain the bifurcation diagram, then choose two equilibrium states (called jet-up state and jet-down state) as reference states respectively, propose Principal Component Analysis-based Simulated Annealing (PCASA) algorithm to solve CNOP-type initial perturbations which can induce double-gyre regime transitions between jet-up state and jet-down state. PCASA algorithm is an adjoint-free method which searches optimal solution randomly in the whole solution space. In addition, we investigate CNOP-type initial perturbations how to evolve with time. The results show:(1) the CNOP-type perturbations present a two-cell structure, and gradually evolves into a three-cell structure at predictive time;(2) by superimposing CNOP-type perturbations on the jet-up state and integrating ROMS, double-gyre circulation transfers from jet-up state to jet-down state, and vice versa, and random initial perturbations don't cause the transitions, which means CNOP-type perturbations are the optimal precursors of double-gyre regime transitions;(3) by analyzing the transition process of double-gyre regime transitions, we find that CNOP-type initial perturbations obtain energy from the background state through both barotropic and baroclinic instabilities, and barotropic instability contributes more significantly to the fast-growth of the perturbations. The optimal precursors and the dynamic mechanism of double-gyre regime transitions revealed in this paper have an important significance to enhance the predictability of double-gyre circulation.     

华北克拉通中东部新太古代晚期变质火山岩及动力学体制

热状态和壳幔岩浆作用是理解早期地壳形成演化动力学机制的关键.华北克拉通是世界范围内为数不多的保存有大量新太古代晚期(约26～25亿年)变质火山岩记录的克拉通之一,对揭示全球新太古代晚期壳-幔动力学演化过程具有重要的指示意义.在我们研究组近期关于华北克拉通中东部中新太古代热状态和地壳厚度研究基础上,本文收集并整理了726...     

High resolution characterization of northwest Mediterranean coastal waters thermal regimes: To better understand responses of benthic communities to climate change

In the North West Mediterranean (NWM), mass mortality events (MME) of long-lived benthic species that have occurred over the last two decades have been related to regional warming trend. Gaining robust data sets on thermal regimes is critical to assess conditions to which species have adapted, detect extreme events and critically evaluate biological impacts. High resolution temperature (T) time series obtained during 1999–2006 from 5 to 40 m depth at four contrasted sites of the NWM were analyzed: Area Marina Protegida de les Illes Medes (NE Spain), Riou (Marseilles, France), Parc National de Port-Cros (France), and Réserve Naturelle de Scandola (Corsica, France). The seasonal pattern showed winter T around 11–13 °C, and summer T mainly around 22–24 °C near surface to 18–20 °C at depth. Stratification dynamics showed recurrent downwellings (>40 m) at Medes, frequent observation (1/3rd of the summer) of deep and cold upwelled waters at Riou, while Scandola exhibited stable summer stratification and highest suprathermoclinal T. Port-Cros showed an intermediate regime that oscillated between Riou and Scandola depending on the occurrence of northern winds. Data distribution study permitted to identify and to characterize 3 large scale positive anomalies concomitant with the mass mortality outbreaks of summers 1999, 2003 and 2006. The analysis of biological surveys on gorgonian populations showed significant impacts during the 3 years with temperature anomalies. Besides the degree of impact showed inter-annual differences which could be related to different T conditions concomitant to mortality events, from slight increase in T extreme of only 1–2 °C over short duration, to lengthened more classical summer conditions. Our results therefore support the hypothesis that shallow NWM populations of long-lived benthic species are living near their upper thermal thresholds. Given actual trends and projections in NWM, the repetition of new MMEs in the next decades is extremely likely. In such context, the acquisition of dedicated high resolution T series proves to be crucial for increasing our detection, understanding and forecasting abilities.     

Evaluation of global optimization algorithms for parameter calibration of a computationally intensive hydrologic model

With the popularity of complex hydrologic models, the time taken to run these models is increasing substantially. Comparing and evaluating the efficacy of different optimization algorithms for calibrating computationally intensive hydrologic models is becoming a nontrivial issue. In this study, five global optimization algorithms (genetic algorithms, shuffled complex evolution, particle swarm optimization, differential evolution, and artificial immune system) were tested for automatic parameter calibration of a complex hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), in four watersheds. The results show that genetic algorithms (GA) outperform the other four algorithms given model evaluation numbers larger than 2000, while particle swarm optimization (PSO) can obtain better parameter solutions than other algorithms given fewer number of model runs (less than 2000). Given limited computational time, the PSO algorithm is preferred, while GA should be chosen given plenty of computational resources. When applying GA and PSO for parameter optimization of SWAT, small population size should be chosen. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄土丘陵沟壑区坡面产流能力及影响因素研究

坡面是黄土高原土壤侵蚀的重要来源,本文以团山沟流域的7个径流场9年的降雨－径流事件,对不同坡面和降雨特征下径流系数随坡面的变化进行了研究。结果表明,研究区存在降雨强度大、持续时间短的A型雨、降雨强度小持续时间长的C型雨以及居于二者之间的B型雨。不同雨型下坡面产流能力大小为A型雨>B型雨>C型雨,而产流尺度效应则为C型雨>B型雨>A型雨。坡度一定,A型雨下随着坡面长度增加产流能力先增加后减小,径流系数峰值出现在坡长为40m的坡面上,B型和C型雨坡面产流能力随坡面长度的增加而增加;坡长一定,峁坡区坡面产流能力随着坡度的增加而增加;A型雨下沟坡产流能力最小,而在B型和C型雨下,坡面产流能力相对有所提高。