Improving extreme hydrologic events forecasting using a new criterion for artificial neural network selection

The issue of selecting appropriate model input parameters is addressed using a peak and low flow criterion (PLC). The optimal artificial neural network (ANN) models selected using the PLC significantly outperform those identified with the classical root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) or the conventional Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) statistics. The comparative forecast results indicate that the PLC can help to design an appropriate ANN model to improve extreme hydrologic events (peak and low flow) forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Snow-induced thermal variations around a single conifer tree

The influence of trees on the ground thermal regime is important to the overall winter energy exchange in a snow-covered, forested watershed. In this work, spatial zones around a single conifer tree were defined and examined for their controls on the snow cover, snow-ground interface temperatures and frozen ground extent. A large white spruce (Picea glauca), approximately 18 m tall with a crown diameter of 7.5 m and located in northern Vermont, was the subject of this study. The tree was instrumented with thermistors to measure the snow-ground interface temperature between the tree trunk and 6 m from the tree into undisturbed snow. Four distinct zones around the conifer are defined that affect the snow distribution characteristics: adjacent to the trunk; the tree well; the tree crown perimeter; and the unaffected area away from the tree. At the time of peak snow accumulation and during the ablation season, snow depth and density profiles were measured. The area beneath the canopy accumulated 34% of the snow accumulated in the undisturbed zone. By the end of the ablation season, the depth of snow under the canopy had decreased to 18% of the undisturbed snow depth. The tree and branch characteristics of spruce in this temperate climate resulted in a different snow depth profile compared with previous empirical relationships around a single conifer. A new relationship is presented for snow distribution around conifer trees that has the ability to better fit data from a variety of conifer types than previously published relationships. Less snow beneath the canopy led to colder snow-ground interface temperatures than measured in undisturbed snow. The depth of frozen ground in the different zones was modelled using a simple analytical solution that showed deeper frost penetration in the tree well than beneath the undisturbed snow.     

A stationary principle for non conservative systems

A stationary principle is described to yield governing integral formulations for dissipative systems. Variation is applied on selective terms of energy or momentum functionals resulting with force or mass balance equations respectively. Applying the principle for a motion of a viscous fluid yields the Navier-Stokes equations as an approximation of the functional (i.e. equating to zero part of the integrand). When a Darcy's flow regime in a porous media is considered, implementing a space averaging method on the resultant integral derived by the principle, Forchheimer's law for energy accumulation and solute transport equation for momentum assembling are yielded in differential form approximation of a more extended functional formulation.     

Impacts of global warming on hydrological cycles in the Asian monsoon region

The hydrologic changes and the impact of these changes constitute a fundamental global-warmingrelated concern. Faced with threats to human life and natural ecosystems, such as droughts, floods, and soil erosion, water resource planners must increasingly make future risk assessments. Though hydrological predictions associated with the global climate change are already being performed, mainly through the use of GCMs, coarse spatial resolutions and uncertain physical processes limit the representation of terrestrial water/energy interactions and the variability in such systems as the Asian monsoon. Despite numerous studies, the regional responses of hydrologic changes resulting from climate change remains inconclusive. In this paper, an attempt at dynamical downsealing of future hydrologic projection under global climate change in Asia is addressed. The authors conducted present and future Asian regional climate simulations which were nested in the results of Atmospheric General Circulation Model （AGCM） experiments. The regional climate model could capture the general simulated features of the AGCM. Also, some regional phenomena such as orographic precipitation, which did not appear in the outcome of the AGCM simulation, were successfully produced. Under global warming, the increase of water vapor associated with the warmed air temperature was projected. It was projected to bring more abundant water vapor to the southern portions of India and the Bay of Bengal, and to enhance precipitation especially over the mountainous regions, the western part of India and the southern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. As a result of the changes in the synoptic flow patterns and precipitation under global warming, the increases of annual mean precipitation and surface runoff were projected in many regions of Asia. However, both the positive and negative changes of seasonal surface runoff were projected in some regions which will increase the flood risk and cause a mismatch between water demand and water availability in the agricul     

ESSI分布式水文模型在淮河流域的应用

以淮河小柳巷水文站以上各支流组成的流域为研究对象,应用ESSI分布式水文模型对流域出口的年、月、日径流以及流域水文空间过程进行模拟以验证模型的适用性和模拟精度。选取合理的模型运行方案组合,以2001~2004年作为模型校准期,率定出模型参数,并用2006~2009年的实测水文数据进行模型验证。结果表明ESSI模型率定得到的参数在研究区具有一定的代表性,较为准确地概化描述了研究区的水文过程,在淮河流域中上游具有良好的适用性;此外,模拟的水文空间过程与淮河流域的客观规律相近,表明ESSI模型对各水文过程具有合理的描述和表达,为水资源的时空动态变化规律研究提供良好的模拟平台。     

Benthic life in karst spring—The life cycle and secondary production of benthic macroinvertebrates under the effects of constant water temperature

Because of the thermal stability and the persistence over geological time scales of their aquifers, the permanent karst springs may act as a glacial refuge, as well as serve as “in vivo” laboratories for the testing of various ecological hypotheses. For these reasons, our main hypotheses were: i) to the constant water temperature benthic species will response by specific voltinism and life-cycle length will be different from those that the species usually have in non-spring habitats; ii) under the constant water temperature the particular species and whole community will have higher biomass turnover like in similar non-spring habitats. Investigation was performed in large cave karst spring “Vyvieranie” in the Western Carpathians. In total, 40 species of benthic macroinvertebrates were identified in the studied karst spring. The trajectory of the annual change of the benthic community structure clearly showed a returnable pattern at the species density and biomass level. The constant water temperature throughout the year was reflected by specific life-history trajectories in certain benthic species. While some species had fixed voltinism (e.g. Ephemerella mucronata, Isoperla sudetica), others indicated having a flexible life-cycle pattern. In the species with a flexible life cycle, the trajectory of larval development occurred in two different ways. In the first case, a constant water temperature extended larval development (e.g. Protonemura auberti, Leuctra albida). In the second case, the addition of a winter cohort was recorded (e.g. Gammarus fossarum, Rhyacophila tristis, Protonemura austriaca). The productivity of this benthic community was considerably higher than that previously found in other submountain limestone streams in the Western Carpathians.     

祁连山葫芦沟流域高山寒漠带非冻结期水文特征

高山寒漠带是我国内陆河山区和我国多数大江、大河源头的主产流区之一. 由于缺乏系统观测数据及相关研究的支撑,当前国内外研究较为匮乏,高山寒漠带水文循环过程机理尚不清楚. 通过在黑河上游葫芦沟流域高山寒漠带试验点布设水文循环观测试验,分析了典型高山寒漠带非冻结期水文特征. 结果表明：高山寒漠试验点观测期(2009年6月7日-9月30日)的降水量为541.4 mm;蒸发皿的蒸发量为256.9 mm,桶式微型蒸渗仪(Micro-Lysimeter)的蒸发量为122.8 mm,平均蒸发量为1.1 mm·d^-1. 根据观测,高山寒漠带凝结水量也比较丰富,凝结水虽然没有直接参与高寒山区水文循环的产汇流过程,但它消耗了能量,抵消了部分太阳辐射,间接地参与了产汇流过程. 高山寒漠带小流域在观测期的平均径流深为461.2 mm. 根据降水梯度获取的流域平均降水量为639.1 mm,径流系数为0.72.     

流域水文模型的发展

本文列出了当今世界上比较流行的15个流域水文模型。对现行概念性集总式流域水文模型的结构和参数的特点进行了评论,指出了这类流域水文模型存在的主要缺陷。对新一代流域水文模型, 即分布式流域水文模型,尤其是其中具有物理基础的分布式流域水文模型,进行了较为深入的分析,指出其之所以优于集总式流域水文模型的主要原因。最后对流域水文模型进一步发展所必须具备的理论和技术条件做了初步讨论。     

Integrated hydrologic modeling in the inland Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

As a typical inland river basin in arid Northwest China, having distinct hydrological characteristics and severe and representative water problems, the Heihe River Basin (HRB) has attracted considerable research interest worldwide and in 2007 became a pilot basin of the G-WADI network of UNESCO/IHP. Many research programs have been conducted in the HRB since the 1980s, producing rich knowledge and data about the basin, which will be very helpful to further studies. This paper reviews research efforts related to hydrologic modeling and ongoing model integration studies performed in the HRB in recent years. Recently, an observation network covering the whole area and a Web-based data-sharing system have been established which can greatly improve data acquisition. This paper tabulates modeling activities in past years, including model applications, model modifications and enhancements, and model coupling efforts. Also described is a preliminary modeling integration tool designed to quickly build new models, which has been developed for hydrologic modeling purposes. Challenges and issues confronted in current studies are discussed, pointing toward key research directions in the future.     

中国参与构建2012年后国际气候制度的战略思考

 2009年将是构建2012年后应对气候变化国际制度的关键时期,而除了温室气体的减排目标和责任分摊之外,减缓和适应气候变化以及相应的技术和资金支持都将会是最为关键的影响要素。在对国际气候制度的关键影响要素进行梳理并对其进程进行分析的基础上,结合不断变化的国际国内政治、经济、环境和社会形势,对中国在2012年后国际气候谈判以及中长期应对气候变化的策略进行了探讨。