地下水触发地震的初步认识

张素欣等对地下水动态的10 a周期特征及其与强震多发期的关系所进行的研究表明,地下水10 a左右的周期结构与华北地区的强震活动有呼应关系,水位10 a周期的高值年份说明区域应力水平较高,如果某一地震构造带积累的应力水平较高,那么,水位的升降引起的应力变化有可能触发地震活动.根据大震产生的附加应力(张应力)的大小,不同应力途径的三轴压缩实验以及原地注水诱发地震的实验结果以及前人的研究成果,分析讨论了地下水触发地震的可能机制.     

Crustal thermal regime inferred from magnetic anomaly data and its relationship to seismogenic layer thickness: The Japanese islands case study

The seismogenic layer thickness correlates with surface heat flow beneath the Japanese islands. However, this correlation is shown at restricted area, where seismic activity is high. In order to overcome this spatial limitation, we used another approach to estimate the regional thermal structure in the crust beneath the Japanese islands with more uniform coverage. The bottom depths of the magnetized crust determined from the spectral analysis of residual magnetic anomalies is generally interpreted as the level of the Curie point isotherm. We applied this method to estimate the crustal thermal structure in square windows of 2.125° × 2.125°. The obtained depths ranging from 11 to 30 km with average value of 18 km, correlate with the seismogenic layer thickness. It suggests that the Curie point depth is a useful indicator of the crustal thermal structure in these regions.     

Simulated effect of a forest road on near‐surface hydrologic response and slope stability

Forest management practices often result in significant changes to hydrologic and geomorphic responses at or near the earth's surface. A well‐known, but not fully tested, hypothesis in hillslope hydrology[sol ]geomorphology is that a near‐surface permeability contrast, caused by the surface compaction associated with forest roads, can result in diverted subsurface flow paths that produce increased up‐slope pore pressures and slope failure. The forest road focused on in this study is located in a steep forested, zero‐order catchment within the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (Oregon). A three‐phase modelling effort was employed to test the aforementioned hypothesis: (i) two‐dimensional (vertical slice), steady‐state, heterogeneous, saturated subsurface flow simulations at the watershed scale for establishing the boundary conditions for the catchment‐scale boundary‐value problem in (ii); (ii) two‐dimensional (vertical slice), transient, heterogeneous, variably saturated subsurface flow simulations at the catchment scale for estimating near‐surface hydrologic response and pore pressure distributions; and (iii) slope stability analyses, using the infinite slope approach, driven by the pore pressure distributions simulated in (ii), for assessing the impact of the forest road. Both observed and hypothetical rainfall events are used to drive the catchment‐scale simulations. The results reported here support the hypothesis that a forest road can have an effect on slope stability. The permeability contrast associated with the forest road in this study led to a simulated altering of slope‐parallel subsurface flow with increased pore pressures up‐slope of the road and, for a large rainfall event, a slope failure prediction. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

淮北市岩溶水源地超采评价

以安徽淮北市水源地为例,结合水位动态过程与开采影响程度,确定超采的临界水位;利用水位动态模拟模型和超采临界水位,对1997～2003年实际开采过程进行超采程度评价;分析研究区的超采成因,探讨限采规划思路。     

信息流合成方法在震情分析研究中的应用

在八五地震短临预报攻关的研究中，８５０４０２０１二级课题给出了一种新的信息合成方法———信息流合成方法．作为８５０４０２一级课题的继续及九五预研究工作的部分内容是使信息流合成方法进一步得到完善，并在日常预报工作中进行了应用，取得了初步的结果．同时也为将科研与预报更紧密结合起来进行了有意义的探索     

特克斯河巩留引水灌区水文地质条件及地下水的开发利用

本文以大量的第一手资料阐明了灌区的水文地质条件，排水问题和地下水的开采利用现状等，分析了研究了地下水的资源量，可开采量，滩地的排水问题及地下水的开发利用。     

Precipitation pollution effect on groundwater hydrochemical regime

Pollution of precipitation is one of the main factors affecting the hydrochemical regime of groundwater. The main factors governing the concentration of macro-and microelements, as well as the degree of acifidication, have been evaluated on the basis of the long-term variability of the hydrochemical regime of groundwater. The results follow from the generalization of the data obtained. Changes in the macro- and microelement concentration in groundwater have been studied, taking into account the chemical composition of rainwater and snow meltwater.     

A model for the generation of simultaneous daily discharges of two rivers at their point of confluence

A geomorphological study at the confluence of the Danube and the Isar in Bavaria required long series of daily discharges in both rivers. A model that generates simultaneous correlated streamflows in both rivers was developed and tested. The model is a modified shot noise model, first developed by Treiber (1975) for a single river, that was adapted to two rivers. It generates correlated pulses of events that produce flow for each river, and these pulses are then convoluted with a river specific systems function. The model, after being calibrated for the two rivers on the basis of 85 years of records, yields artificial series of discharges, in which the statistical properties of the historical records are reproduced. The performance of the model was tested with 20 generated series each 100 years long.     

黄河下游游荡段过流能力调整对水沙条件与断面形态的响应

河道过流能力与主槽形态有关，而主槽形态又取决于上游水沙条件，分析过流能力与这两者之间的关系对研究黄河下游游荡段河床演变规律有重要意义。从典型断面和河段平均两个尺度，定量分析了黄河下游游荡段1986—2015年平滩流量与水沙条件（来沙系数和水流冲刷强度）及汛前主槽形态（河相系数）之间的响应关系。结果表明：① 1986年至小浪底水库运行前，游荡段淤积严重，主槽萎缩，河道过流能力急剧下降，自小浪底水库运行后，游荡段发生强烈冲刷，其断面持续趋向窄深，过流能力逐年恢复；②建立了断面和河段平滩流量与水沙条件及河相系数的幂函数关系，二者相关系数均在0.5以上，但河段尺度相比于断面尺度的相关系数至少可提高17%；③河段平滩流量与前5年汛期平均水流冲刷强度及河相系数的相关系数接近0.94，相应计算公式能较好地反映平滩流量的变化过程，为分析其他河段平滩流量的变化提供了参考方法。     

ON THE REDUCTION OF WATER AND SEDIMENT YIELD OF THE YELLOW RIVER IN LATE YEARS

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