震兆图象的远程遥联性

通过研究我国一些震情窗口成组震兆与大陆及边邻Ms≥7.0级地震的整体链式活动的对应关系,指出这些窗口的成组震兆具有远程遥联的特点。对这种特点的深入研究将有可能为我国大陆及边邻地区地震活动的总体大形势作出估计。     

Modelling evaporation using an artificial neural network algorithm

This paper investigates the prediction of Class A pan evaporation using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The ANN back propagation algorithm has been evaluated for its applicability for predicting evaporation from minimum climatic data. Four combinations of input data were considered and the resulting values of evaporation were analysed and compared with those of existing models. The results from this study suggest that the neural computing technique could be employed successfully in modelling the evaporation process from the available climatic data set. However, an analysis of the residuals from the ANN models developed revealed that the models showed significant error in predictions during the validation, implying loss of generalization properties of ANN models unless trained carefully. The study indicated that evaporation values could be reasonably estimated using temperature data only through the ANN technique. This would be of much use in instances where data availability is limited. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term trend of precipitation and runoff in Korean river basins

The spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and runoff for 139 basins in South Korea were investigated for 34 years (1968–2001). The Precipitation‐Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was selected for the assessment of basin hydrologic response to varying climates and physiology. A non‐parametric Mann–Kendall's test and regression analysis are used to detect trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly precipitation and runoff, while Moran's I is adapted to determine the degree of spatial dependence in runoff trend among the basins. The results indicated that the long‐term trends in annual precipitation and runoff were increased in northern regions and decreased in south‐western regions of the study area during the study period. The non‐parametric Mann–Kendall test showed that spring streamflow was decreasing, while summer streamflow was increasing. April precipitation decreased between 15% and 74% for basins located in south‐western part of the Korean peninsula. June precipitation increased between 18% and 180% for the majority of the basins. Trends in seasonal and monthly streamflow show similar patterns compared to trends in precipitation. Decreases in spring runoff are associated with decreases in spring precipitation which, accompanied by rising temperatures, are responsible for reducing soil moisture. The regional patterns of precipitation and runoff changes show a strong to moderate positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that there is a high potential for severe spring drought and summer flooding in some parts of Korea if these trends continue in the future. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于TRMM卫星雷达降雨的流域陆面水文过程

利用热带降雨观测计划(TRMM)卫星雷达降雨数据驱动分布式陆面水文模型,研究流域尺度陆面水文过程,评估该数据在水文模拟与预报等研究领域的性能。通过与实测雨量资料比较,验证TRMM卫星雷达降雨数据的质量。分别将TRMM卫星雷达降雨与观测降雨作为耦合模型的气象输入,模拟和研究淮河流域1998~2003年的陆面水文过程时空变化。结果表明,TRMM卫星雷达降雨数据能够很好地描述降雨的时空分布,利用TRMM降雨模拟的结果与利用观测降雨模拟的结果精度相当;模拟流量与实测资料基本吻合。卫星雷达降雨数据在陆面水文过程研究中具有广泛的应用前景。     

Emplacement of the La Peña alkaline igneous complex,Mendoza, Argentina (33° S): Implications for the early Miocene tectonic regime in the retroarc of the Andes

The La Peña alkaline complex (LPC) of Miocene age (18–19 Ma) lies on the eastern front of the Precordillera (32°41ʹ34ʺS, 68°59ʹ48″W, 1400–2900 m a.s.l.), 30 km northwest of Mendoza city, Argentina. It is a subcircular massif of 19 km² and 5 km in diameter, intruded in the metasedimentary sequence of the Villavicencio Formation of Silurian-Devonian age. It is the result of integration of multiple pulses derived from one or more deep magma chambers, which form a suite of silicate rocks grouped into: a clinopyroxenite body, a central syenite facies with a large breccia zone at the contact with the clinopyroxenite, bodies of malignite, trachyte and syenite porphyry necks, and a system of radial and annular dikes of different compositions. Its subcircular geometry and dike system distribution are frequent features of intraplate plutons or plutons emplaced in post-orogenic settings. These morphostructural features characterize numerous alkaline complexes worldwide and denote the importance of magmatic pressures that cause doming with radial and annular fracturing, in a brittle country rock. However, in the LPC, the attitude of the internal fabric of plutonic and subvolcanic units and the preferential layout of dikes match the NW–SE extensional fractures widely distributed in the host rock. This feature indicates a strong tectonic control linked to the structure that facilitate space for emplacement, corresponding to the brittle shear zone parallel to the N–S stratigraphy of the country rock. Shearing produced a system of discontinuities, with a K fractal fracture pattern, given by the combination of Riedel (R), anti-Riedel (R′), (P) and extensional (T) fracture systems, responsible for the control of melt migration by the opening of various fracture branches, but particularly through the NW–SE (T) fractures. Five different pulses would have ascent, (1) an initial one from which cumulate clinopyroxenite was formed, (2) a phase of mafic composition represented by dikes cross-cutting the clinopyroxenite, (3) a malignite facies that causes a small breccia in the clinopyroxenite, (4) a central syenite facies that develops breccias at the contact with the clinopyroxenite and, finally, (5) porphyry necks and a system of radial dikes intruding all units. At the moment of the emplacement different mechanisms would have acted, they summarized in: 1) opening of discontinuities synchronous to the magma circulation as the principal mechanism for formation of dikes and conduits; 2) stoping processes, that play an important role in the development of the breccia zone and enabling an efficient transference of material during the emplacement of the syenitic magma and 3) shear-related deformation (regional stress), affected the internal fabric of the facies, causing intracrystalline deformation and submagmatic flow, which is very evident in the central syenite intrusive. The kinematic analysis of shear planes allows proposing that emplacement of the LPC took place in a transtensive regime, which would have occurred in the back-arc of the Andes orogen, during a long period spanning from Miocene to the present, of the compressive deformation responsible, westward and at the same latitude, for the development of the Aconcagua fold and thrust belt.     

假玻状岩研究的新进展

综述了假玻状岩研究的主要进展，假玻状岩形成的磨擦熔融机制与机械磨碎机制实际上不是过去所认为的是两种互相排斥的机制，而是在假玻状岩形成过程中两个密切相关的阶段，磨碎作用是熔融发生的必要的前提条件；假玻状岩不仅可以形成于脆性域（与碎裂岩相关），而且可以形成于脆韧性过渡区（与糜棱岩相关），形成的最大深度可达１８ｋｍ；假玻状岩是围岩中矿物选择性熔融的产物，矿物优先熔融的顺序（从易到难）为：层状硅酸盐、链状     

地下河系统水动态监测网络优化对比分析:以桂林海洋-寨底地下河系统为例

基于我国南方地区岩溶发育极不均匀、水位水质动态变化快的特点,通过对信息熵法和防污性能法所得结果的对比,分析在缺少系列监测资料条件下,利用岩溶水系统防污性能评价结果快速布设地下河系统水动态监测网的可行性及其布设原则。根据防污性能评价结果,结合水循环特征,桂林海洋-寨底地下河系统水动态监测网需由17个监测站组成;采用信息熵法对现有35个监测站进行优化后,认为只需要12个监测站就可组成最优监测网,但这12个监测站点与采用防污性能评价法得到的点位完全重合,且均位于防污性能差的地区。对比分析认为,以地下水系统防污性能评价结果布设地下水动态监测网是可行性的,因为岩溶发育区既是防污性能差的地区,也是地下水动态变化快的地区,能充分反映地下河系统水质水量变化。采用防污性能评价法布设地下水动态监测网时,需要充分认识和了解地下河系统水文地质条件和地下河管道结构特征,且需要遵循以下原则:(1)在岩溶发育相对较弱的系统中部(基本上不存在防污性能差的地区)不设置监测站点;(2)在距离地下河出口较近的岩溶发育区内(即防污性能差的地区)监测站点可由地下河出口替代;(3)对于多支管道系统,岩溶发育相对较弱且距离较短的小型支管道上可以不布设监测站,由支管道与主管道交汇处的监测站代替。     

基于MEM1谱分析的水文时间序列隐含周期特性研究

水文时间序列的隐含周期(本文将简单周期、复合周期及近似周期等统称为隐含周期)的识别、判定是一个重要而又较为困难的问题,相对成熟和有效的做法是对其进行频谱分析。建立在最大熵原理(POME)基础之上的MEM1谱分析,克服了传统谱分析方法的诸多不足,具有频谱光滑、分辨率高等独特优势。为此,以黄河花园口(秦厂)测站年径流系列、月径流系列和年最大洪峰流量序列隐含周期特性的研究为例,探讨了MEM1谱分析在水文时间序列隐含周期特性中的应用。     

太行山前倾斜平原区地下水位动态特征分析及其趋势预测--以河北省栾城县为例

随着太行山前社会经济的飞速发展,地下水的开采量大大增加,多年的连续超采,导致地下水位大幅度持续下降.本文以河北省栾城县为例,在研究区内水文地质条件以及对区内的地下水进行全面监测的基础上,对区内多年的地下水动态特征进行了综合分析研究,并在此基础上采用灰色系统理论对区内的浅层地下水位总体变化趋势进行了预测.研究表明,区内地下水开发利用程度较高,农业的季节性开采是影响地下水动态的主要因素,地下水位表现为典型的开采型动态,在现有地下水开采条件下,地下水位将以1m/a的速度下降.