大安市地下水动态变化趋势及驱动因素研究

为研究大安市地下水位的变化特征及其主要控制因素,根据大安市气候因素、引水灌溉水量、地下水开采和地下水埋深等数据资料,分析了环境因素的变化规律及趋势,基于suffer软件利用克里格方法对地下水埋深进行插值,分析其时空演变规律及驱动因素。结果表明,降水量呈波动增加的趋势,平均年降水量增量为0.249mm/a;蒸发量呈波动下降的趋势,平均年蒸发量增量为-2.063mm/a;引水灌溉水量呈增加趋势,平均年灌溉水量增量为0.212×108m/a。潜水埋深呈小幅度减小趋势,年均倾斜率为-0.023m/a,承压水埋深呈波动上升趋势,年均倾斜率为0.146m/a。承压水动态变化的驱动因子由大到小依次为人工开采(主要是农业开采与生活用水)、引水灌溉、降水、蒸发,农业开采是最主要的影响因子。研究结果可为制定完善的水资源调控方案提供理论依据。     

川北山丘区地下水补给特征与定量研究

针对川北山丘区地下水资源和污染防护研究中地下水补给难以定量等问题,以川北典型山丘区平溪河北岸的山丘区子流域为研究对象,布设监测孔并对其地下水的水位和水温开展动态监测,并基于大气压监测数据校正地下水监测水位,分析了山丘区地下水水位及水温的年内动态变化特征;采用渗水试验和分段双栓塞水文地质试验获取含水层空间渗透系数;基于达西断面法定量计算了研究区内观测断面的地下水径流补给量,并建立了月降雨量与降水入渗系数的函数关系,结果显示:研究区多年平均大气降水入渗补给量为16.61mm,多年平均降水入渗系数为0.0182;月降雨量与降水入渗系数呈幂函数关系;此成果可为研究区地下水资源、地下水防污性能评价及地下水数值模拟等研究提供重要依据。     

Sectoral targets for developing countries: combining ‘common but differentiated re-sponsibilities’ with ‘meaningful participation’

Although a global cap-and-trade system is seen by many researchers as the most cost-efficient solution to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the governments of developing countries refuse to enter into such a system in the short term. Many scholars and stakeholders, including the European Commission, have thus proposed various types of commitments for developing countries that appear less stringent, such as sectoral approaches. A macroeconomic assessment of such a sectoral approach is provided for developing countries. Two policy scenarios in particular are assessed, in which developed countries continue with Kyoto-type absolute commitments, while developing countries adopt an emissions trading system limited to electricity generation and linked to developed countries' cap-and-trade systems. In the first scenario, CO₂ allowances are auctioned by the government, which distributes its revenues as a lump sum to households. In a second scenario, the auction revenues are used to reduce taxes on, or to give subsidies to, electricity generation. The quantitative analysis, conducted with a hybrid general equilibrium model, shows that such options provide almost as much emissions reduction as a global cap-and-trade system. Moreover, in the second sectoral scenario, GDP losses in developing countries are much lower than with a global cap-and-trade system, as is also the effect on the electricity price.     

BOOK REVIEWS

Books reviewed in this article: Boundary Control and Legal Priniciples . Curtis M. Brown , Walter G. Robillard and Donald A. Wilson . Lost Initiatives: Canada's Forest Industries, Forest Policy, and Forest Conservation . R. Peter Gillis and Thomas R. Roach . The Navajo Atlas: Resources, People, and History of the Dine Bikeyah . James M. Goodman . The City and the Sign . M. Gottdiener AND Alexandros Ph . Lagopoulos , EDS. The Comfortable House: North American Suburban Architecture 1890–1930 . Alan Gowans . Arabic-Islamic Cities. Building and Planning Principles . Besim Salim Hakim . Contemporary Climatology . Ann Henderson -Sellers and Peter J. Robinson . A Trace of Desert Waters . Samuel G. Houghton . Geography, Resources and Environment. Vol. 1: Selected Writings of Gilbert F. White. Vol. 2: Themes from the Work of Gilbert F. White . Robert W. Kates AND Ian Burton , ED. Spatial Dimensions of Unemployment and Underemployment (A Case Study of Rural Punjab) . Gopal Krishan . Maps of the Holy Land: Cartobibliography of Printed Maps, 1475–1900 . Compiled by Eran Laor , assisted by Shoshana Klein . The Geography of Third World Cities . Stella Lowder . A Perspective on U.S. Farm Problems and Agricultural Policy . Lance Mc Kinzie , Timothy G. Baker AND Wallace E. Tyner . Soil Erosion and Its Control. R.P.C . Morgan , ED Geopolitics . Patrick O'Sullivan . Landscape, Meanings and Values . Edmund C. Penning -Rowsell AND David Lowenthal , EDS.     

Comparative policy analysis: Neoliberalising New Zealand

Comparative policy analysis involves systematically examining the long‐term formation of public policies across a number of societies. It focuses particularly on the sequence of policy regimes: liberalism – Keynesianism/social democracy – neoliberalism. Since 1980, neoliberalism has been widely adopted as the guiding ideological structure for economic policy making. But neoliberalism encounters resistances that vary with national contexts. New Zealand is a particularly interesting case because of its reputation as a social democratic, welfare state that went neoliberal with a vengeance (Rogernomics).     

蚌埠闸及上游闸坝对淮河自然水文情势的影响

淮河流域建设了许多闸坝,为揭示如此密集的闸坝对河流自然水文情势的影响,选取比较典型的淮河干流上的蚌埠闸作为控制节点,用成熟的IHA法和RVA法,研究蚌埠闸及其上游闸坝对水文情势的影响程度,同时通过蚌埠水文站水文情势变化的估算来分析闸坝对淮河河流生态水文条件的影响。结果显示,这些闸坝对河流水文情势的影响强烈,特别是在枯水季节。由此得出的淮河蚌埠段生态水文目标可为蚌埠闸开展生态系统管理、生态修复以及进行生态调控提供理论支持。     

SWAT模型在伊犁河上游缺资料区的应用

 在分布式水文模型中,探索产生分布式降水数据的方法是该领域研究的热点之一,发展基于水文物理过程的模型校准方法是实践PUB的热点与难点。基于SWAT分布式水文模型,以资料稀缺的伊犁河上游为研究区域,针对流域的水资源评价关键问题,首先准确描述区域的降水空间分布特征,并基于流域水文过程采用综合流域特征、多时间尺度、多变量和多站点的适宜性模型校准新方法,取得了满意的模拟结果,表明模型较好地再现了流域的水文过程。另外,完善水文机理研究,提高降水及下垫面相关参数的观测水平是改善模型模拟的有效途径。     

2006年汛期VIC水文模型模拟结果分析

利用大尺度陆面水文模型VIC及其汇流模型模拟了2006年5-9月全国0.5°×0.5°逐日径流深和土壤相对湿度分布,对淮河流域2006年汛期(6月28日-7月5日)强降水过程期间的模拟结果进行了渍涝灾害的分析.同时对流域主要水文站逐日流量(0.5°×0.5°)过程进行了模拟,并与实况作了对比分析;并且针对淮河流域不同空间分辨率(0.5°×0.5°及0.1°×0.1°)下主要水文站点的逐日流量过程进行了比较.结果表明:VIC模型模拟的径流深和土壤相对湿度分布与降水分布是一致的,模拟土壤湿度具有可用性.利用累计降水、径流分布和土壤相对湿度及流量变化可以监测渍涝灾害的发生;VIC模型及其汇流模型在一定程度上可以反映出实际流量的变化趋势,模拟流量对降水较敏感,细网格模拟流量在量值上与实况更为接近;模拟结果误差可能跟汇流模型中流域边界的确定、参数率定、气象强迫资料等因素有关.