Probabilistic analysis of rock slope stability and random properties of discontinuity parameters, Interstate Highway 40, Western North Carolina, USA

Probabilistic analysis has been used as an effective tool to evaluate uncertainty so prevalent in variables governing rock slope stability. In this study a probabilistic analysis procedure and related algorithms were developed by extending the Monte Carlo simulation. The approach was used to analyze rock slope stability for Interstate Highway 40 (I-40), North Carolina, USA. This probabilistic approach consists of two parts: analysis of available geotechnical data to obtain random properties of discontinuity parameters; and probabilistic analysis of slope stability based on parameters with random properties. Random geometric and strength parameters for discontinuities were derived from field measurements and analysis using the statistical inference method or obtained from experience and engineering judgment of parameters. Specifically, this study shows that a certain amount of experience and engineering judgment can be utilized to determine random properties of discontinuity parameters. Probabilistic stability analysis is accomplished using statistical parameters and probability density functions for each discontinuity parameter. Then, the two requisite conditions, kinematic and kinetic instability for evaluating rock slope stability, are determined and evaluated separately, and subsequently the two probabilities are combined to provide an overall stability measure. Following the probabilistic analysis to account for variation in parameters, results of the probabilistic analyses were compared to those of a deterministic analysis, illustrating deficiencies in the latter procedure. Two geometries for the cut slopes on I-40 were evaluated, the original 75° slope and the 50° slope which has developed over the past 40 years of weathering.     

我国东北地区暴雪形成机理的个例研究

应用NCEP资料分析了2000年1月1-2日发生在我国东北地区的一次暴雪过程。研究表明：这次暴雪发生在两槽两脊的大尺度环流背景下，是高空西风急流和低空西南风急流上下耦合作用的结果。高空急流提供动力不稳定条件，低空急流是暴雪区水汽的提供者和对流不稳定能量释放的触发者；暴雪区还具备上冷下暖热力不稳定条件，暴雪区是北支锋区南压的结果。暴雪区的对流不稳定高度位于850hPa，湿位涡负值中心与暴雪区有较好的对应关系，由于低空急流对湿位涡的输送，使得暴雪区条件性对称不稳定加强，有利于暴雪的形成。     

Are harmonic tremors self-excited thermoacoustic oscillations?

The thermoacoustic instability is proposed as a possible cause of volcanic harmonic tremors. Properties of this instability are discussed in relationship to conditions in active volcanoes, and directions of possible future research are outlined.     

塔里木盆地库鲁克塔格地区奥陶纪碳酸盐沉积环境不稳定性的岩石学证据

新疆塔里木盆地库鲁克塔格地区奥陶纪曾普遍发育碳酸盐岩台地沉积,但其沉积环境较动荡,碳酸盐岩组合类型为泥晶砂屑、生物碎屑和破碎鲕粒.为系统的研究本区奥陶纪碳酸盐岩的发育演化规模.从碳酸盐岩的组合类型及微观特征分析入手,对其岩石学特征进行分析得出:①碳酸盐岩中鲕粒和生物碎屑经过搬运再沉积,不是原地鲕滩和生物滩的产物;②陆源碎屑岩与碳酸盐岩混合、互层沉积.碳酸盐岩厚度向上逐渐变薄,陆源碎屑岩的厚度逐渐变厚;③碳酸盐岩沉积环境中发育有重力流沉积.证明了奥陶纪碳酸盐岩台地沉积环境是不稳定的.     

畸形波研究的进展及存在问题

畸形波是近10年海浪研究领域的热点问题.作为一种新认识的物理现象,其经历了发现—认识—确认的认知过程.畸形波生成机制的研究目前取得了较大的进展,波列演化的调制不稳定性被认为是畸形波生成最具可能的原因.畸形波的研究及认识仍存在一些根本性的问题,这些问题的解决是正确及深入探究畸形波这种海洋物理现象的基础.通过对畸形波研究中存在的一些基本问题进行阐述和分析,探讨解决这些基本问题的思路及方法,为畸形波的研究提供一些有价值的参考.     

中国东部夏季风雨带向北推进与条件对称不稳定的关系研究

利用1981～2010年欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF）ERA-interim再分析资料和中国741站日降水资料,分析了中国东部夏季风雨季期间,条件对称不稳定（CSI）与季风雨带季节性向北推进的关系。结果表明,逐月强降水距平场显示了雨带强降水中心自华南（4～6月）先北跳到江淮（5～7月）,再到华北（7～8月）的季节性进程,特别是7～8月强降水距平场具有“北多南少”分布特征,与对应的平均雨量场相比,其表征雨带季节性北跳现象更显著。与雨带强降水中心季节性变化一致,大气负湿位涡通量中心亦先在华南停滞（4～6月）、然后移到江淮（5～7月）,最后到达华北（7～8月）。在垂直方向上,CSI区4、5及9月主要在925～600 hPa,而6～8月抬升到700～600 hPa,CSI区也很好地表征了夏季风北进加强、南撤减弱以及所伴随的雨带变化趋势。在春末夏初,夏季风建立初期的华南、江淮雨季集中期,热成风（垂直风切变）作用对倾斜对流有效位能（SCAPE）的贡献占绝对优势,盛夏的华北雨季集中期则相反,浮力作用项（CAPE）占主要作用;同时,热成风作用项的季节分布与强降水中心季节变化一致,但浮力作用项却没有这种变化关系。条件性湿位涡通量指数（CMF index）可指示雨带强降水异常区。     

海坨区块高效堵漏体系的优化与应用

海坨区块的地层破裂压力较低,存在大量的天然裂缝,钻井过程中极易发生渗透性漏失和失返性漏失,从而引发井壁失稳。针对海坨区块存在的严重漏失问题,制备了一种随钻堵漏纤维YTZ,同时优选出了与基浆配伍良好的复合植物纤维XA、快速封堵剂KF,提高了钻井液稳定井壁的能力。通过3种堵漏材料的复配,形成了一套适合海坨区块的堵漏体系和科学有效的施工技术,有效解决了海坨区块的各种井漏问题,确保了钻井及完井施工的顺利进行,减少了由于漏失带来的经济损失。该堵漏体系在现场应用中体现了良好的封堵效果,值得在海坨区块进一步推广应用。     

南海北部孤立波对近岸波动的响应

On the basis of the time series observations from a temperature chain and an acoustic Doppler current profiler on the continental shelf of the northern South China Sea, a sequence of internal solitary waves （ISWs） and background waves （BWs, including internal tides and near-inertial waves） on the continental shelf were captured simultaneously after the transit of Typhoon Neast in October 2011. These measurementsprovided a unique opportunity to explore the influence of BWs on the ISWs. The BWs appeared a conversion on the current strength and vertical mode structure during the observational period. The BWs were dominated by weak and mode-one waves before October 2 and then turned to strong and high-mode waves after that time. Meanwhile, the ISWs displayed different wave structures before and after October 2, which was closely related to BWs＇ changes. According to the current profiles of BWs, the high-mode wave structure with strong current could significantly strengthen the vertical shear of ISWs in the near-surface layer and promote the breaking of ISWs, and thus it may play an important role in affecting the background current condition.