渤海夏季底层环流的观测与模拟

通过分析用人工水母在渤海夏季进行的首次底层环流的 L agrange观测 ,发现在渤海底层 Lagrange余流只有几 cm/s,在海峡处基本是北进南出的情况 ,在辽东湾有 1个逆时针的环流 ,在渤海湾有 1个顺时针的环流。但是进一步分析发现 ,底层人工水母的运移 (代表了物质输运 )并不完全反映环流的方向 ,在有些站位甚至出现相反的趋势。通过数值模拟知道瞬时的扩散及沉降等过程是产生这种结果的原因 ,而根源在于环流场的不均匀性。     

青藏高原东南缘次林错岩体晚白垩世—早新生代快速剥蚀

青藏高原东南缘是研究构造、地貌演化和气候变化相互作用的理想场所,前人研究主要揭示了晚始新世—早中新世和晚中新世以来的快速剥蚀事件,缺乏晚白垩世—早新生代时期地貌演化过程的研究。次林错花岗岩已有的低温热年代学数据覆盖了整个新生代时期,为探索该区域新生代早期的剥露演化历史提供了重要资料。该岩体新生代早期冷却事件是岩浆冷却单一作用的结果,还是受快速剥蚀作用的影响,目前仍然存疑,需要定量研究。因此,本文结合已有的岩石地化和年代学数据,对次林错花岗岩开展了锆石饱和温度和一维岩浆冷却模拟研究。锆石饱和温度计算结果表明次林错花岗岩的岩浆结晶温度介于647～705℃之间,属低温花岗岩。一维岩浆冷却模拟结果显示岩体侵位时的最小围岩温度为160～120℃,对应深度约为3.7～5.0 km。结合锆石和磷灰石(U-Th)/He年代学数据,本文认为该岩体在晚白垩世—早新生代时期(67～40 Ma)经历了一期剥蚀量至少为2 km的快速剥蚀事件。已发表成果的综合分析表明,此次快速剥露事件可能是整个青藏高原地区广泛存在的构造剥蚀事件,新特提斯洋的俯冲闭合与印亚板块的初始碰撞可能是触发此次大规模区域剥蚀的主要原因。     

全新世初期气候的数值模拟研究

本文尝试用一个完全耦合的大气-海洋-植被模式(Atmosphere-Ocean-Vegetation General Circulation Model, AOVGCM)模拟全新世初期的地球气候.模拟结果表明,耦合模式成功地再现了全新世初期复杂气候条件下的基本特征,为研究这一时期的气候状况提供了重要的模型支持.就全球平均而言,11ka BP冬季地表气温比现代约低1.6 K,夏季比现代低约0.3 K;大气温度从低层到高层有不同的表现,高层反映了太阳辐射的重要作用,而低层气候对下垫面（如冰川、植被和海洋等）的影响比较敏感.从区域分布来看,11 ka BP冬季大部地区比现在偏干,但热带太平洋和南半球少部地区降水偏多;夏季大部地区比现在偏湿,亚洲和非洲季风偏强,主要的季风区降水偏多.     

散乱数据插值的HASM方法

本文运用高精度曲面建模(HASM)方法,研究了空间散乱数据插值算法,并以陕西咸阳彬县大佛寺煤矿区的实测数据为案例,使用交叉统计检验方法比较分析HASM方法与地理信息系统(GIS)领域中常用传统插值方法的空间插值结果。结果表明,HASM方法具有较高的精度。本文还分析了传统常用插值方法的一些统计结果,得出一些结论,这些结论对于使用常用传统GIS空间插值方法的研究者有很好的参考作用。     

Population abundance and seasonal migration patterns indicated by commercial catch-per-unit-effort of hakes (Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus) in the northern Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem

We developed generalised additive models (GAMs) to estimate standardised time-series of population abundance indices for assessment purposes and to infer ecological and behavioural information on northern Benguela hakes, Merluccius capensis and M. paradoxus, using haul-by-haul commercial trawl catch-rate data as proxies for hake densities. The modelling indicated that individual ship identifiers should be used rather than general vessel characteristics, such as vessel size. The final models explained 79% and 68% of the variability in the commercial catch rates of M. capensis and M. paradoxus, respectively. The spatial density patterns were consistent and confirmed existing knowledge about these species in the northern Benguela system. Furthermore, seasonal migration patterns were described for the first time and were found to correspond to the known spawning areas and seasons for M. capensis and M. paradoxus. Spatial density patterns were validated using the geostatistical modelling results of fisheries-independent trawl survey data. Improved understanding of the relationships between fleet dynamics and fish movement can be achieved by taking into consideration the present catch-rate model and spatial and seasonal distribution maps. We conclude that the yearly standardised CPUE time-series are problematic as proxies for total stock abundance because of spatial coverage issues. Consequently, such CPUE data should not be used for stock-size assessments and fisheries advice concerning northern Benguela hakes until this is solved. We generally recommend the exclusion of standardised CPUE time-series from stock assessments when important and changing parts of the stock distribution cannot be targeted by the fishery, such as due to closed areas or seasons.     

The sheltering effect of the Balearic Islands in the hindcast wave field

The sheltering effect of the Balearic Islands in the hindcast wave field was studied for typical Mediterranean wave situations of Llevant, Tramuntana and Mestral and for mild conditions such as the Garbí and Ponent winds. For this purpose, a third generation wave model was applied to the Mediterranean Sea and different patterns of the sheltered areas were found for the various representative situations depending on the wind variability and on the magnitude of the wind speed. From the analysis it was concluded that the sheltered zones created during storms generally persist for short periods of time of the order of 6 h, possibly reaching a maximum of 12 h. In contrast with earlier results obtained for swell dominated ocean areas, it was observed that in this area, due to the short fetches the sea states are mainly local wind seas and thus the wave field behind the islands depends on the local wind.     

pT-effects of Pleistocene glacial periods on permafrost,gas hydrate stability zones and reservoir of the Mittelplate oil field,northern Germany

During the past two million years low surface temperatures as well as episodically advancing ice sheets from Scandinavia acted on the subsurface pT-regime of northern Germany. Their likely effects on the petroleum system of Schleswig-Holstein were investigated. For the entire Quaternary mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was reconstructed at a resolution of 1000 years by calibrating oxygen isotope records from ODP-site 659 to the climate of northern Germany of the past 120 kyr. The resulting MAGT trend served as input to an ice sheet model and a permafrost model along a 2D section crossing the petroleum bearing south-western part of Schleswig-Holstein. Here advances and retreats of the Scandinavian ice sheet during Saalian and Elsterian glaciation Stages were reconstructed. Maximum ice thicknesses of up to 1700 m and up to 20 periods of regional permafrost in northern Germany were reconstructed for the past 1.25 million years. Based on a basal heat flow of 50 mW/m² permafrost thicknesses exceeded 100 m during most of these periods, temporarily extending down to depths of more than 300 m. Favourable surface temperatures and long durations of cold periods provided favourable conditions for onshore gas hydrate stability zones at Mittelplate. Implementing these glacial dynamics into 2D basin modelling (PetroMod, IES, Aachen, Germany) of the Mittelplate oil field reveals five phases of gas hydrate stability at depths down to 750 m. The latest of these events occurred during the Weichselian about 20 kyr ago. The effect of the ice sheets on pore pressure in the subsurface strongly depends on the hydraulic boundary conditions at the ice base (e.g. frozen vs. temperate ice sheet base). Excess pore pressure in the reservoir of more than 10 MPa during ice overriding is possible and probable. The calculated temperature effect of the Pleistocene cooling on the Mittelplate reservoir is in the range of 3–7 °C. Even today temperature in the reservoir is still lowered by about 4 °C in comparison to pre-Pleistocene times. Despite the fact that a significant influence of glacial effects on petroleum generation can be ruled out at Mittelplate, we state that pT-effects in reservoirs related to glacial processes in formerly glaciated areas have been underestimated in the past.     

Control of Aptian palaeobathymetry on turbidite distribution in the Buchan Graben,Outer Moray Firth,Central North Sea

It is widely recognised that palaeobathymetry is a key control on the distribution of turbidite deposits. Thus, the utilisation of palaeobathymetric surfaces as an input for numerical turbidity current modelling offers a potentially powerful method to predict the distribution of deep marine sands in ancient (subsurface or outcrop) successions. Such an approach has been tested on an Aptian turbidite deposit from the Buchan Graben, UK Central North Sea, where modelled sand distributions could be quality controlled against available well data.     

Balancing deformation in NW Borneo: Quantifying plate-scale vs. gravitational tectonics in a delta and deepwater fold-thrust belt system

Recent GPS measurements demonstrate that NW Borneo undergoes 4–6 mm of plate-scale shortening a year, which is not accommodated by plate-scale structures. The only geological structure in NW Borneo described to accommodate on-going shortening is the Baram Delta System located on the outer shelf to basin floor. Delta toe fold-thrust belts are commonly thought to be caused by margin-normal compressional stresses generated by margin-parallel upslope gravitational extension.     

Risk identification and perception in the fisheries sector: Comparisons between the Faroes,Greece, Iceland and UK

This paper presents the findings of risk identification and risk perception research conducted in relation to the fisheries systems of four distinct and diverse European countries: Faroes, Iceland, Greece and the UK. Risk research traditionally attempts to quantify the potential threat or consequences from a range of risk events or hazards. This research, however, adopted a social sciences perspective and so assumed that a risk event or hazard can mean different things to different people and that these perceptions are also context and culturally dependent. Risk perceptions were examined and risk registers developed in each country for a range of stakeholder groups. A ‘mental modelling’ approach was adopted in a series of qualitative interviews. Findings were examined in terms of a wide range of psychological, social and cultural risk theories. Differences in risk perceptions were noted between stakeholder groups and countries and contextual influences were examined such as the widely differing fisheries management systems used in each country. This research provides one of the first attempts to systematically evaluate risks and perceptions across a range of fisheries-systems. The findings support social science theories which argue that risk is a subjective, as opposed to objective, concept and that this subjectivity will therefore affect our attempts to assess and manage those hazards we think we can potentially influence or control.