核密度法的南京苏果超市分布热点探测

针对超市经营者进行选址优化和空间配置问题,该文以南京市主城区内苏果超市为例,利用平面核密度方法,对城市内零售超市的空间结构与分布模式进行分析,系统地研究不同类型超市的空间分布特征并进行热点区域的探测。研究表明,热点区域的探测结果符合商业网点分布的一般规律,南京主城区内不同类型苏果超市的空间分布表现出较大的空间区域分异:购物广场的热点分布于中心城区外围的次一级中心,社区店和标准超市的热点分布于居住区,便利店的热点大多分布于人口密集区域。     

我国西部冬季扰动源涡与东部夏季雨带分布

我国西部 (85°10 5°E)冬季“扰动源涡”的位置对夏季东部雨带的配置具有支配作用。当西部“源涡”位于 35°N以北时 ,东部雨带多出现在黄河流域及其以北 (Ⅰ类雨型 ) ;源涡位于 32°35°N之间时 ,夏季雨带多出现在淮河流域 (Ⅱ类雨型 ) ;当源涡位于 32°N以南时 ,雨带多出现在长江流域或江南 (Ⅲ类雨型 )。藏东南热点区冬季的中强地热脉冲对我国夏季江淮和川黔的大水具有很强的指示作用     

Novel evaluation metrics for sparse spatio-temporal point process hotspot predictions - a crime case study

Many physical and sociological processes are represented as discrete events in time and space. These spatio-temporal point processes are often sparse, meaning that they cannot be aggregated and treated with conventional regression models. Models based on the point process framework may be employed instead for prediction purposes. Evaluating the predictive performance of these models poses a unique challenge, as the same sparseness prevents the use of popular measures such as the root mean squared error. Statistical likelihood is a valid alternative, but this does not measure absolute performance and is therefore difficult for practitioners and researchers to interpret. Motivated by this limitation, we develop a practical toolkit of evaluation metrics for spatio-temporal point process predictions. The metrics are based around the concept of hotspots, which represent areas of high point density. In addition to measuring predictive accuracy, our evaluation toolkit considers broader aspects of predictive performance, including a characterisation of the spatial and temporal distributions of predicted hotspots and a comparison of the complementarity of different prediction methods. We demonstrate the application of our evaluation metrics using a case study of crime prediction, comparing four varied prediction methods using crime data from two different locations and multiple crime types. The results highlight a previously unseen interplay between predictive accuracy and spatio-temporal dispersion of predicted hotspots. The new evaluation framework may be applied to compare multiple prediction methods in a variety of scenarios, yielding valuable new insight into the predictive performance of point process-based prediction.     

Socioeconomic characteristics and crash injury exposure: A case study in Florida using two-step floating catchment area method

The objective of this study is to investigate the exposure of different population groups to severe injury crash hotspots using an empirical-Gaussian two-step floating catchment area (EG-2SFCA) method based on roadway network distances and a socioeconomic-based weighting approach. This is performed by developing a special form of a crash-to-population ratio index that incorporates the severe crash hotspots relative to the locations of populations they might impact. While identifying these hotspots, four different age groups are considered: 17 and younger, 18 to 21, 22 to 64 and 65 and older. For each age group, severe crash hotspots are identified based on the roadway network and the number of severely injured crash occupants that belong to the specific age group. Using these age-specific crash hotspots and the EG-2SFCA method, communities that were exposed to elevated crash injury risk (crash injury exposure) have been identified. Furthermore, from a residential perspective, a socioeconomic analysis is conducted in order to develop a socioeconomics-based crash injury exposure measure. This measure assesses the exposure of different socioeconomic groups to the risk of being injured. Results demonstrated by applying this measure in the Tampa Bay region, FL show that different population groups are under varying risk of being injured depending on their residential location. The developed approach has the potential to be a social fairness measure able to be applied by agencies, which could enhance the well-being of communities that are subject to elevated injury risk.     

Structural analysis of the segmentation of the Central Indian Ridge between 20°30′S and 25°30′S (Rodriguez Triple Junction)

The morphological characteristics of the segmentation of the Central Indian Ridge (CIR) from the Indian Ocean Triple Junction (25°30S) to the Egeria Transform Fault system (20°30S) are analyzed. The compilation of Sea Beam data from R/VSonne cruises SO43 and SO52, and R/VCharcot cruises Rodriguez 1 and 2 provides an almost continuous bathymetric coverage of a 450-km-long section of the ridge axis. The bathymetric data are combined with a GLORIA side-scan sonar swath to visualize the fabric of the ridge and complement the coverage in some areas. This section of the CIR has a full spreading rate of about 50 mm yr^–1, increasing slightly from north to south. The morphology of the CIR is generally similar to that of a slow-spreading center, despite an intermediate spreading rate at these latitudes. The axis is marked by an axial valley 5–35 km wide and 500–1800 m deep, sometimes exhibiting a 100–600 m-high neovolcanic ridge. It is offset by only one 40km offset transform fault (at 22°40S), and by nine second-order discontinuities, with offsets varying from 4 to 21 km, separating segments 28 to 85 km long. The bathymetry analysis and an empirical orthogonal function analysis performed on across-axis profiles reveal morphologic variations in the axis and the second-order discontinuities. The ridge axis deepens and the relief across the axial valley increases from north to south. The discontinuities observed south of 22°S all have morphologies similar to those of the slow-spreading Mid-Atlantic Ridge. North of 22°S, two discontinuities have map geometries that have not been observed previously on slow-spreading ridges. The axial valleys overlap, and their tips curve toward the adjacent segment. The overlap distance is 2 to 4 times greater than the offset. Based on these characteristics, these discontinuities resemble overlapping spreading centers (OSCs) described on the fast-spreading EPR. The evolution of one such discontinuity appears to decapitate a nearby segment, as observed for the evolution of some OSCs on the EPR. These morphological variations of the CIR axis may be explained by an increase in the crustal thickness in the north of the study area relative to the Triple Junction area. Variations in crustal thickness could be related to a broad bathymetric anomaly centered at 19°S, 65°E, which probably reflects the effect of the nearby Réunion hotspot, or an anomaly in the composition of the mantle beneath the ridge near 19°S. Other explanations for the morphological variations include the termination of the CIR at the Rodriguez Triple Junction or the kinematic evolution of the triple junction and its resultant lengthening of the CIR. These latter effects are more likely to account for the axial morphology near the Triple Junction than for the long-wavelength morphological variation.     

Architectural characteristics of two bed types of the seagrass Posidonia oceanica over different spatial scales

Seagrass beds occur in various morphological forms, ranging from small patches to continuous meadows. The endemic Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica forms dense and extensive stands that occur in several different morphotypes, including reticulate (seagrass interspersed with a different habitat type, such as bare sand) and continuous beds. This study, undertaken in the Maltese Islands, examined whether reticulate and continuous P. oceanica beds, located adjacent to each other and at similar depths, had different within-bed architectural characteristics. Five commonly used architectural measures (shoot density, number of leaves per shoot, mean leaf length, mean leaf width and shoot biomass) were measured from P. oceanica shoots collected from the two bed types at three different spatial scales: (1) tens of metres (‘small’ scale); (2) hundreds of metres (‘medium’ scale); and (3) kilometres (‘large’ scale). Results of 2-factor ANOVA (factor 1=bed type; factor 2=sampling locality) carried out at the three spatial scales indicated significant differences between the two bed types in shoot density (P<0.01) and leaf length (P<0.05) at the small scale, and in leaf number (P<0.05) at the large scale. Significant interactions were also apparent for shoot density (at the large scale) and for shoot biomass (at the medium scale). However, the results obtained did not indicate consistent architectural differences between the two P. oceanica bed types over the spatial scales considered. Spatial variations in within-bed architectural characteristics observed were therefore thought to be attributable mainly to the influence of local environmental factors. The findings are discussed with reference to the conservation and management of P. oceanica habitat.     

宁波海岛期间带生态学研究──Ⅱ．数量组成与分布

本文研究了宁波海岛潮间带的生物数量组成与分布规律。岩礁潮间带平均生物量（２５１２．９４ｇ／ｍ２）高于沙质潮间带（４７．６４ｇ／ｍ２）高于泥沙质潮间带（２２．３６ｇ／ｍ２），而密度为岩礁潮间带（９８７．２个／ｍ２）高于泥沙质潮间带（２８１．２个／ｍ２）高于沙质潮间带（２０．０个／ｍ２）。主要生物类群有甲壳动物、藻类及软体动物。岩礁潮间带生物量从近岸向外海增加。泥沙质潮间带的生物量和密度从北至南增加。     

田横岛、绿岛码头建设对附近水域水动力影响数值研究

利用有限元方法 ,建立了崂山头至古龙咀连线以西海域二维潮流数值计算模式 ,数值模拟了田横岛、绿岛码头建成后对附近水域水动力的影响 ,数值模拟结果表明 :码头建成前后流场分布在离码头区500m以外几乎无变化 ,在码头附近除围海造田减少了部分海域面积外码头周围水域流场有变化 ,其最大量值减少范围500m外流速小于1.73cm/s、余流小于0.44cm/s,而流速方向角变化范围小于8.1°、余流小于12.8°。最大流速发生时刻基本没有变化。     

无居民海岛功能定位初探

根据无居民海岛的自然属性和社会属性,考虑到海岛环境的特殊性、资源承载的有限性、空间开发功能的衍生性,以及与国家主体功能区规划和全国海洋功能区划的衔接性,从海岛开发适宜性和海岛可持续保护的角度,研究无居民海岛功能分类方法,构建海岛功能分类评价指标体系,确定海岛功能分类的适宜性评价因子及评价标准,并引入综合评判理论,量化指标因子,构建综合评判模型,在此模型的基础上,借助GIS技术实现无居民海岛功能定位。