A 200-year precipitation index for the central English Lake District / Un indice de précipitation de 200 ans pour la Région des Lacs en Angleterre

Abstract

Abstract The geographical context and hydroclimatology of the English Lake District means that the region is an important monitor of changes to nationally significant environmental assets. Using monthly rainfall series for sites in and around the central Lake District, a continuous ~200-year precipitation index was constructed for a representative station close to Grasmere. The bridged series shows a significant decline in summer rainfall since the 1960s, offset by increases in winter and spring that are strongly linked to North Atlantic forcing. Over longer time periods, the index exhibits several notable dry (1850s, 1880s, 1890s, 1930s, 1970s) and wet (1820s, 1870s, 1920s, 1940s, 1990s) decades. These patterns are strongly reflected by reservoir inflow series and by indicators of the biological status of the region’s freshwater lakes. It is argued that long-term climate indices will become increasingly important as managers seek to evaluate recent and project environmental changes within the context of long-term natural variability.     

Subduction and back-arc activity at the Hikurangi convergent Margin,New Zealand

The Hikurangi Margin is a region of oblique subduction with northwest-dipping intermediate depth seismicity extending southwest from the Kermadec system to about 42°S. The current episode of subduction is at least 16–20 Ma old. The plate convergence rate varies along the margin from about 60 mm/a at the south end of the Kermadec Trench to about 45 mm/a at 42°S. The age of the Pacific lithosphere adjacent to the Hikurangi Trench is not known.The margin divides at about latitude 39°S into two quite dissimilar parts. The northern part has experienced andesitic volcanism for about 18 Ma, and back-arc extension in the last 4 Ma that has produced a back-arc basin onshore with high heaflow, thin crust and low upper-mantle seismic velocities. The extension appears to have arisen from a seawards migration of the Hikurangi Trench north of 39°S. Here the plate interface is thought to be currently uncoupled, as geodetic data indicate extension of the fore-arc basin, and historic earthquakes have not exceededM _s=7.South of 39°S there is no volcanism and a back-arc basin has been produced by downward flexure of the lithosphere due to strong coupling with the subducting plate. Heatflow in the basin is normal. Evidence for strong coupling comes from historic earthquakes of up to aboutM _s=8 and high rates of uplift on the southeast coast of the North Island.The reason for this division of the margin is not known but may be related to an inferred increase, from northeast to southwest, in the buoyancy of the Pacific lithosphere.     

辽宁及其邻区1900—1949年M≥5级地震参数研究

我们搜集了国际国内地震台网资料、宏观考察资料、地震专题研究报告,对1900—1949年5级以上地震全部进行了核查,重新进行定位处理,并结合宏观考察资料和前人工作成果进行分析研究,得到较为准确的震中位置。通过这项研究,增补了原目录中遗漏的地震,并对目录中的错误进行了修正,从而得到一份较为完整可靠的地震目录。     

Mapping the Geographical Diffusion of a Finnish Smallpox Epidemic from Historical Population Records

Smallpox mortality from an early 19th century epidemic in Finland is mapped at the parish village level. First, geographically referenced historical materials are used to construct a map showing the spread of smallpox mortality among villages. Next, the diffusion of smallpox morbidity is simulated by computer for the same set of villages. These two maps are then compared. Results indicate that at this scale maps of mortality diffusion can show general trends but have no direct spatial correspondence to the underlying pattern of morbidity diffusion. Mortality maps cannot be used as a surrogate measure of infectious contact behavior at micro scales of analysis.     

鲜水河断裂带炉霍县卡扎村大探槽古地震研究

本文测定分析了特殊地区的两种不同饱和状态的干压实土体在不同等级荷栽作用下产生的沉陷量，探讨了施荷时间对沉陷量的影响从而提示了两种干压实土体在荷载作用下沉陷量变化规律，并分析研究了这两种干压实土体的最大压缩模量与饱和度的关系。这一研究成果对干旱特殊地区的公路设计施工具有一定的参考价值。     

川滇交界中段历史强震及其活动特征

本文在详细补充调查和充分整理前人资料基础上，对川滇交界中段的其中６次强震进行了等烈度图编制，并对川滇菱块东界大地震的等烈度线分布特征进行了研究，按照构造孕育与发震扩展的思路，探讨了川滇交界中段的中长期地震危险性。     

当前反射地震学研究中的问题浅析

反射地震学作为地震学应用于国民经济建设的分支学科取得了巨大的成功。它在矿产资源勘探、工程建设与环境、自然灾害预测等各种领域发挥了不可替代的作用，特别是在能源开发中功不可殁。另一方面，反射地震学在广泛的工业应用中全面地完善和发展了地震学的理论、方法和技术。时至今日，反射地震学的发展已经从经典理论方法的研究走向更加与客观介质密切相关的深层次研究新阶段，这些问题是，反射地震学从单纯的构造研究走向地层岩性研究，与此有关的是从偏移构造成像步入层析成像、利用单波单分量数据转向应用多波多分量数据、假设地层为固体弹性介质转向双相孔隙介质、各向同性研究转向各向异性研究以及经典的一些方法技术与现代新技术同时使用等。本文对这些方面的研究现状进行概要的分析。     

过去2．5百万年间黄土与深海古气候变化周期的对比分析

过去２．５Ｍａ间宝鸡黄土粒度记录和深海氧同位素曲线的Ｆｏｕｒｉｅｒ功率谱分析结果表明：在１．６Ｍａ以上部分，两者的周期性相当一致；但在２．５-１．６Ｍａ时段，两者的周期记录差异很大．深海氧同位素曲线记录的全球大陆冰量变化周期以与地轴倾斜度有关的０．０４１Ｍａ为主，而黄土粒度曲线记录的内陆风力强度变化周期则以与偏心率有关的０．４Ｍａ和０．１Ｍａ为主．造成这种异同的原因是：在２．５-１．６Ｍａ时段，内陆风力强度变化主要受地球轨道变化驱动，而从１．６Ｍａ前开始，转而主要受全球大陆冰量变化驱动．     

频率域电磁测深中的记录规则

首先讨论了频率域电磁测深中的记录规则,然后利用三维数值模拟结果作了具体分析。认为,在不考虑微弱的阴影效应时,将测深点作为频测记录点更为合理。野外试验对比说明了同样的结论。     

全球旋回地层学

全球旋回地层学是指在对全球沉积岩进行综合系统研究之基础上，通过估算沉积盆地中源于物源区的沉积物类型和沉积环境条件变化，来预测地层学特征的一种过程一结果模型。其研究内容包括对全球地质演化时期全球海平面变化、全球气候条件、全球构造运动、全球古地理背景、全球沉积环境特征、全球古生物事件及全球矿产形成过程进行动态模拟，强调古气候在地质记录中的意义，注重沉积记录的全球同时性研究；强调各种事件在沉积作用中的意