上新世湖相纹泥及其环境信息与时间标尺记录

纹泥反映了湖相沉积物中特有的沉积韵律,是气候的季节变化和年际变化的产物。山西榆社张村地区上新世晚期的湖心相沉积中发育了极为完好的纹泥剖面。纹泥深浅相间形成清晰的纹理,分别代表夏秋和冬春。一深一浅组成一对,代表一年。纹泥层的单层厚度平均为0．12～0．25mm／条,薄者＜0．1mm／条,厚者可达0．3mm／条。暗色纹泥层的厚度大于浅色纹泥层。暗色纹泥的有机质含量丰富,木本植物孢粉占优势,同时CaO的含量低;浅色纹泥恰好相反。湖相纹泥具有建立高分辨率时间标尺和环境演化序列的特殊优越条件。     

用历史类比法对中国强震活动的概率预测

本文将20世纪全球强震活动划分为7个活动期,以国内中强以上地震同期活动资料进行比较,对未来国内强震活动趋势作出中期的统计概率预测,似乎可以作为一个较为有力的判据。     

A multiproxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh,Northern Ireland: a critical examination of the link between bog surface wetness and solar variability

A proxy climate record from a raised bog in County Fermanagh, Northern Ireland, is presented. The record spans the interval between 2850 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 1000 and chronological control is achieved through the use of tephrochronology and ¹⁴C dating, including a wiggle‐match on one section of the record. Palaeoclimatic inferences are based on a combination of a testate amoebae‐derived water table reconstruction, peat humification and plant macrofossil analyses. This multiproxy approach enables proxy‐specific effects to be identified. Major wet shifts are registered in the proxies at ca. 1510 cal. yr BC, 750 cal. yr BC and cal. yr AD 470. Smaller magnitude shifts to wetter conditions are also recorded at ca. 380 cal. yr BC, 150 cal. yr BC, cal. yr AD 180, and cal. yr AD 690. It is hypothesised that the wet shifts are not merely local events as they appear to be linked to wider climate deteriorations in northwest Europe. Harmonic analysis of the proxies illustrates statistically significant periodicities of 580, 423–373, 307 and 265 years that may be related to wider Holocene climate cycles. This paper illustrates how the timing of climate changes registered in peat profiles records can be precisely constrained using tephrochronology to examine possible climatic responses to solar forcing. Relying on interpolated chronologies with considerable dating uncertainty must be avoided if the climatic responses to forcing mechanisms are to be fully understood. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

分布式社区口腔医疗信息管理系统设计

利用SQL Server和VB设计分布式社区口腔医疗信息管理系统,建立牙科电子病历,实现远程医疗信息共享和IC卡一卡通服务,改善口腔医疗服务水平.     

我国海洋底栖猛水蚤目两个新记录种

通过对2008 年5 月在江苏平岛潮间带采集的砂质沉积物进行离心提取, 经形态分类学方法 鉴定发现底栖猛水蚤目两个新记录种, 濑户叶足猛水蚤Phyllopodopsyllus setouchiensis Kitazima, 1981 和扎哈美猛水蚤 Ameira zahaae Karanovic & Cho, 2012, 分别隶属于矩头猛水蚤科 Tetragonicipitidae Lang, 1948 和美猛水蚤科 Ameiridae Boeck, 1865.其中, 濑户叶足猛水蚤目前仅在 砂质潮间带环境中发现。扎哈美猛水蚤与韩国海域发现的种形态基本一致。     

工业相机在历史航片数字化中的应用

航空摄影胶片作为历史档案的一种,详细地记录了城市规模、设施等地貌信息变迁。因胶片材质保质期有限,有必要将其进行数字化永久保存。传统的扫描手段效率过低,随着一亿及以上像素的工业级别相机的诞生,使得拍照代替扫描成为可能。本文采用自行制作高精度大幅面胶片翻拍仪,通过精确校检获取准确改正参数,并结合计算机后处理,完成了昆明市2期约8500张历史航空摄影胶片的数字化试验,成果各项指标均符合要求,达到了项目预期目的。     

刍议《重庆历史地图集》第二卷的编制

以《重庆历史地图集》第二卷编制的具体情况为例,对图集的开本设计、内容结构设计、封面和版式设计、整体设计、创新源,以及图集编制取得的经验进行了论述,为以后类似图集的编制提供参考。     

Evaluation of the Historical Sampling Error for Global Models

Various ensemble-based schemes are employed in data assimilation because they can use the ensemble to estimate the flow-dependent background error covariance. The most common way to generate the real-time ensemble is to use an ensemble forecast; however, this is very time-consuming. The historical sampling approach is an alternative way to generate the ensemble,by picking some snapshots from historical forecast series.With this approach, many ensemble-based assimilation schemes can be used in a deterministic forecast environment. Furthermore, considering the time that it saves, the method has the potential for operational application.However, the historical sampling approach carries with it a special kind of sampling error because, in a historical forecast, the way to integrate the ensemble members is different from the way to integrate the initial conditions at the analysis time(i.e., forcing and lateral boundary condition differences, and ‘warm start' or ‘cold start' differences). This study analyzes the results of an experiment with the Global Regional Assimilation Prediction System-Global Forecast System(GRAPES-GFS), to evaluate how the different integration configurations influence the historical sampling error for global models. The results show that the sampling error is dominated by diurnal cycle patterns as a result of the radiance forcing difference.Although the RMSEs of the sampling error are small, in view of the correlation coefficients of the perturbed ensemble, the sampling error for some variables on some levels(e.g., low-level temperature and humidity, stratospheric temperature and geopotential height and humidity), is non-negligible. The results suggest some caution must be applied, and advice taken, when using the historical sampling approach.     

Risks of shifting baselines highlighted by anecdotal accounts of New Zealand's snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery

Anecdotal data sources may constitute an important component of the information available about an exploited species, as record keeping may not have occurred until after exploitation began. Here, we aimed to fill any gaps in the exploitative history of the sparid snapper (Pagrus auratus), using social and historical research methods. Social research consisted of interviews with recreational fishers, focusing on the most and largest snapper they had caught. In addition, the diary‐logs of two recreational fishers were analysed. Historical research consisted of investigation of old books, photos, archives and unpublished sources unconventional to fishery science. Interviews with fishers demonstrated no or weak trends in snapper abundance or size, and were likely impeded by a lack of ability to detect change in a fish stock that may still be considered abundant. The fishers’ perception of change, however, largely reflected recent experiences (last c. 10 years), when biomass is understood to have increased, and mostly did not consider experiences before the 1980s. Alternatively, diary‐logs of fisher catch rates produced a pattern that matched formal stock assessments of snapper biomass, suggesting declines in abundance up until the 1990s and an increase in biomass after that time. Historical research, although more qualitative, had the ability to investigate periods where formal records were not kept and described a fishery vastly different from the current one. Snapper were easily caught, in great abundance and in unusual locations. Localised depletion of snapper was first noticed in the early 20th century, despite spectacular catches of snapper occurring after that time. Snapper behaviour was also likely different, with visual sightings of snapper by onlookers a common occurrence. Although predictions from stock assessment models are consistent with that of the anecdotes listed here (i.e., high biomass in the past), these anecdotes are valuable as they explain lost biomass in a perspective meaningful to all. This perspective may be valuable for managers trying to consider the non‐financial value of a shared fishery but, if unrecognised, represents a shifting baseline.     

Last glacial terrestrial vegetation record of leaf wax n-alkanols in the northern South China Sea: Contrast to scenarios from long-chain n-alkanes

Long-chain n-alkanols and n-alkanes in core sediments from the northern South China Sea (SCS) were measured to make a comparison during terrestrial vegetation reconstruction from ~42 ka to ~7 ka. The results showed that terrestrial vegetation record from long-chain n-alkanes matched well with previous studies in nearby cores, showing that more C₄ plants developed during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and C₃ plants dominated in the interglacial period. However, these scenarios were not revealed by terrestrial vegetation reconstruction using long-chain n-alkanols, which showed C₃ plant expansion during the LGM. The discrepancy during the interglacial period could be attributed to the aerobic degradation of functionalized long-chain n-alkanols in the oxygen-rich bottom water, resulting in poor preservation of terrestrial vegetation signals. On the other hand, the different advantages of functionalized n-alkanols and non-functional n-alkanes to record local and distal vegetation signals, respectively, may offer a potential explanation for the contradiction during the LGM when the SCS was characterized by low-oxygen deep water. Nevertheless, large variations on n-alkyl lipid compositions in C₃/C₄ plants could play a part in modulating sedimentary long-chain n-alkanols and n-alkanes toward different vegetation signals, thereby suggesting that caution must be taken in respect to the terrestrial vegetation reconstruction using long-chain n-alkanes and long-chain n-alkanols.