Risks of shifting baselines highlighted by anecdotal accounts of New Zealand's snapper (Pagrus auratus) fishery

Anecdotal data sources may constitute an important component of the information available about an exploited species, as record keeping may not have occurred until after exploitation began. Here, we aimed to fill any gaps in the exploitative history of the sparid snapper (Pagrus auratus), using social and historical research methods. Social research consisted of interviews with recreational fishers, focusing on the most and largest snapper they had caught. In addition, the diary‐logs of two recreational fishers were analysed. Historical research consisted of investigation of old books, photos, archives and unpublished sources unconventional to fishery science. Interviews with fishers demonstrated no or weak trends in snapper abundance or size, and were likely impeded by a lack of ability to detect change in a fish stock that may still be considered abundant. The fishers’ perception of change, however, largely reflected recent experiences (last c. 10 years), when biomass is understood to have increased, and mostly did not consider experiences before the 1980s. Alternatively, diary‐logs of fisher catch rates produced a pattern that matched formal stock assessments of snapper biomass, suggesting declines in abundance up until the 1990s and an increase in biomass after that time. Historical research, although more qualitative, had the ability to investigate periods where formal records were not kept and described a fishery vastly different from the current one. Snapper were easily caught, in great abundance and in unusual locations. Localised depletion of snapper was first noticed in the early 20th century, despite spectacular catches of snapper occurring after that time. Snapper behaviour was also likely different, with visual sightings of snapper by onlookers a common occurrence. Although predictions from stock assessment models are consistent with that of the anecdotes listed here (i.e., high biomass in the past), these anecdotes are valuable as they explain lost biomass in a perspective meaningful to all. This perspective may be valuable for managers trying to consider the non‐financial value of a shared fishery but, if unrecognised, represents a shifting baseline.     

Testing the credibility of historical newspaper reporting of extreme climate and weather events

In recent years, newspaper research has been streamlined by digitisation and online hosting by PapersPast. This paper tests the reliability and credibility of reporting of extreme weather and climatic events through PapersPast to determine if newspaper research of past climate can be further streamlined. Searches were conducted through four early‐20th‐century Auckland newspapers, where counts of articles returned by key‐word searches for particular periods were compared against periods of known extremes. We find that blind searches have only limited potential in identifying extreme weather and climatic events and that they are no substitute for thorough analyses of documentary sources.     

粮食安全视角下中国历史气候变化影响与响应的过程与机理

基于现代全球变化研究中关于脆弱性和粮食安全的概念,把历史时期的粮食安全分解为粮食生产安全、粮食供给安全、粮食消费安全3个层次,以气候变化直接影响粮食生产水平为起点,分析气候变化-农(牧)业收成-食物的人均供给量-饥民-社会稳定性的驱动-响应链中的关键过程,指出气候变化影响的驱动-响应关系不能归结为简单的因果关系,诸如耕地、人口、政策、外来势力都会对气候变化的影响起着放大或抑制的作用。     

东北地区历史时期森林空间格局网格化重建方法研究(英文)

The spatially explicit reconstruction of historical land-cover datasets plays an important role in studying the climatic and ecological effects of land-use and land-cover change(LUCC). Using potential natural vegetation(PNV) and satellite-based land use data, we determined the possible maximum distribution extent of forest cover in the absence of human disturbance. Subsequently, topography and climate factors were selected to assess the suitability of land for cultivation. Finally, a historical forest area allocation model was devised on the basis of the suitability of land for cultivation. As a case study, we used the historical forest area allocation model to reconstruct forest cover for 1780 and 1940 in Northeast China with a 10-km resolution. To validate the model, we compared satellite-based forest cover data with our reconstruction for 2000. A one-sample t-test of absolute bias showed that the two-tailed significance was 0.12, larger than the significant level 0.05, suggesting that the model has strong ability to capture the spatial distribution of forests. In addition, we calculated the relative difference of our reconstruction at the county scale for 1780 in Northeast China. The number of counties whose relative difference ranged from-30% to 30% is 99, accounting for 74.44% of all counties. These findings demonstrated that the provincial forest area could be transformed into forest cover maps well using the model.     

Study on the extremely cold winter of 1670 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The snow-cover days over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in the winter of 1670 were extracted from Chinese historical documents. By these records, the winter temperature anomalies （compared to the mean of 1961-1990） recorded at seven meteorological stations and the regional mean winter temperature were estimated. The results show that： （1） There was an average of about 30 snow-cover days over the MLRYR region in 1670, ranging from 11-20 days in Shanghai and eastern Zhejiang to 5140 days in eastern Hunan Province. The snow-cover days averaged about 40 days in Anqing and Nan- cheng, and ranged from 30 to 40 days in Quzhou, Jingdezhen, and Nanchang; and （2） the regional mean winter temperature in 1670 was estimated to be approximately 4.0 ℃ lower than that of 1961-1990. The maximum negative anomaly of 5.6℃ occurred in Nanchang and the minimum anomaly of-2.8 ℃ was detected in Quzhou. Both of these were lower than that of the coldest winter during the instrumental observation period of 1951-2010. This research could not only provide a method to es- timate historical climate extremes, but also provide a background to understand the recent instrumentally climate extremes.     

论证南海海疆国界线

追溯探查历史图件,根据1946年内政部方域司编制的一组"南海诸岛位置图"(南海诸岛位置图,南沙群岛,中沙群岛,西沙群岛,西沙群岛永兴岛及石岛,南沙群岛太平岛)和1948年出版的"中华民国行政区域图"分析,南海诸岛外围的断续线段是我国在南海的海疆国界线;当时划定,是与陆域国界相连的,海上国界是陆域国界的延伸,以断续线段表示是国际地图上对海疆国界线通用的表示方法,当时即获国际认可。上述结果为南海划界提供了科学依据。     

Seismic structure of the Helan–Liupan–Ordos western margin tectonic belt in North-Central China and its geodynamic implications

We study high-resolution three-dimensional P-wave velocity (Vp) tomography and anisotropic structure of the crust and uppermost mantle under the Helan–Liupan–Ordos western margin tectonic belt in North-Central China using 13,506 high-quality P-wave arrival times from 2666 local earthquakes recorded by 87 seismic stations during 1980–2008. Our results show that prominent low-velocity (low-V) anomalies exist widely in the lower crust beneath the study region and the low-V zones extend to the uppermost mantle in some local areas, suggesting that the lower crust contains higher-temperature materials and fluids. The major fault zones, especially the large boundary faults of major tectonic units, are located at the edge portion of the low-V anomalies or transition zones between the low-V and high-V anomalies in the upper crust, whereas low-V anomalies are revealed in the lower crust under most of the faults. Most of large historical earthquakes are located in the boundary zones where P-wave velocity changes drastically in a short distance. Beneath the source zones of most of the large historical earthquakes, prominent low-V anomalies are visible in the lower crust. Significant P-wave azimuthal anisotropy is revealed in the study region, and the pattern of anisotropy in the upper crust is consistent with the surface geologic features. In the lower crust and uppermost mantle, the predominant fast velocity direction (FVD) is NNE–SSW under the Yinchuan Graben and NWW–SEE or NW–SE beneath the Corridor transitional zone, Qilian Orogenic Belt and Western Qinling Orogenic Belt, and the FVD is NE–SW under the eastern Qilian Orogenic Belt. The anisotropy in the lower crust may be caused by the lattice-preferred orientation of minerals, which may reflect the lower-crustal ductile flow with varied directions. The present results shed new light on the seismotectonics and geodynamic processes of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and its northeastern margin.     

青海玉树地区活动断裂与地震

青海玉树是巴颜喀拉地块西南边界上的典型历史强震区。最新的活动断裂遥感解译与地表调查结果表明,该区新构造期间主要发育清水河断裂带、玉树断裂带、阿布多断裂带和杂多断裂带4条NW向左旋走滑活动断裂带。其中,构成玉树—鲜水河—小江断裂系尾端构造的玉树活动断裂带是该区活动性最显著的岩石圈断裂。该断裂是由当江断裂、结古—结隆断裂和巴塘断裂3条斜接的主干断层和夹杂其间的多条次级断裂所共同构成的Z型左旋剪切张扭性变形带。它在上新世以来和晚第四纪期间的左旋走滑速率为4.0~5.4mm/a,调节了该区大部分的块体挤出与旋转变形,并构成该区大震活动的主要控震构造。历史强震梳理和古地震研究揭示,玉树主干走滑断裂带自约14530a BP以来至少发生了包括2010年地震在内的共11次大地震,原地重复间隔平均在千年以上,最长达近3000a。1738年玉树西北地震之后,玉树—甘孜断裂带的主干断层表现为平均间隔为50~100a的低频、串联式分段破裂过程,并且大震活动存在从东南向西北迁移的趋势。通过对玉树断裂未来大地震危险性进行综合地质判定认为,该区至少仍存在6段未来百年内大地震危险程度不同的地震空区,潜在的大地震震级为Mw6.6~7.3,其中危险性相对较高的段落主要是当江断裂带的当江—拉则段和结古—结隆断裂带上的结隆—叶卡诺段与桑卡—相古段。     

基于土地发展权的历史文化遗迹所在地区农地保护策略探究

目前我国历史文化遗迹所在地区开发用地失控的原因,从体制方面讲,乃是由于规制手段不够健全、管理体制不够顺畅、城镇化和旅游经济发展进程的阶段性等问题所致;从微观经济层面而言,还在于农民缺乏保护农地的经济诱因、农地转向开发用地收益更高、相关利益集团的势力影响等因素在起作用,故而农地流转成开发用地不可避免。所以应当借鉴海外土地发展权制度,在历史文化遗迹所在地区内落实土地发展权的补偿机制,对开发用地实行有效的管制。具体来说,应当从法律上明确土地发展权的地位,将农地保护与当地的经济社会发展有机协调起来,推行土地使用管制,建立完善土地发展权交易机制,同时有效控制农地流转为开发用地的隐性交易行为。     

Holocene rockfalls in the southern Negev Desert,Israel and their relation to Dead Sea fault earthquakes

Rockfall ages in tectonically active regions provide information regarding frequency and magnitude of earthquakes. In the hyper-arid environment of the Dead Sea fault (DSF), southern Israel, rockfalls are most probably triggered by earthquakes. We dated rockfalls along the western margin of the DSF using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides (TCN). At each rockfall site, samples were collected from simultaneously exposed conjugate boulders and cliff surfaces. Such conjugate samples initially had identical pre-fall (“inherited”) TCN concentrations. After boulder detachment, these surfaces were dosed by different production rates due to differences in post-fall shielding and geometry. However, in our study area, pre-rockfall inheritance and post-rockfall production rates of TCN cannot be evaluated. Therefore, we developed a numerical approach and demonstrated a way to overcome the above-mentioned problems. This approach can be applied in other settings where rockfalls cannot be dated by simple exposure dating. Results suggest rockfall ages between 3.6 ± 0.8 and 4.7 ± 0.7 ka. OSL ages of sediment accumulated behind the boulders range between 0.6 ± 0.1 and 3.4 ± 1.4 ka and support the TCN results. Our ages agree with dated earthquakes determined in paleoseismic studies along the entire length of the DSF and support the observation of intensive earthquake activity around 4–5 ka.