关于加强地震预报基础研究的思考

回顾了国内外地震预报研究40年的经历和现状，指出几十年来所取得的科学进展与突破地震预报的科学目标之间还有相当的距离。文章分析了地震预测中的科学难点，提出了加强地震预测基础研究的重要性和必要性，并指出了加强地震预报基础研究的若干科学问题。     

2010年1月24日山西河津-万荣MS4.8地震的震源机制解与发震构造探讨

2010年1月24日,山西省运城市河津-万荣交界地区发生Ms4.8地震.由于本次地震强度较低,并未形成地表破裂带,分析其发震构造具有一定的困难.地震现场工作队只能根据浅层人工地震剖面、附近钻孔资料、烈度等震线长轴和震中区附近活动断裂等来推定,认为西辛封隐伏断裂为可能的发震断裂.为此,下面我们将在分析本次地震的震源机制解、序列三维空间分布特征的基础上,结合本次地震的宏观考察结果,确定其发震构造并探讨发震机理.     

随州-信阳ML4.2地震前定点形变异常特征

分析了2000年1月28日随州和信阳交界处发生的ML4．2地震前，信阳地震台（△＝35km)定点形变中短期及临震异常特征。分析研究表明：该次地震前信阳台目视水管倾斜仪EW向测值从1999年6开始出现反向变化，NS向测值从1999年3月开始出现加速变化；水平摆倾余仪EW向和NS向测值分别从1999年2月和1999年6月开始出现反向变化。这些异常于2000年下半年结束。震前3天水管倾斜仪EW向测值出现加速变化；震前5－8天NS向测值除了出现加速变化外，还出现突跳。城前约20天，水平摆倾斜仪2个方向测值构出现了准周期性波动变化。另外，形变固体潮潮汐因子也有明显异常。     

茅山竹矿断层气定点观测场地勘选

拟在茅山断裂带沿线布设若干个断层气连续观测点,建组断层气观测网。以茅山竹矿地区为例,通过断层气测量的初步结果,结合地质、人工地震、跨断层短水准等多种手段联合分析研究区断层的活动性,从而确定断层气定点观测的点位,为组建断层气观测网的选点提供借鉴和参考。     

四川自贡—隆昌地区注水诱发地震研究

基于2007年1月—2010年8月四川自贡地方数字测震台网和流动台站记录的地震观测资料,并结合注水井(家33井)的加压注水数据,研究了自贡—隆昌地区三个丛集区域(A、B、C)地震活动与家33井注水压力及注水量的相关性,同时从注水区域及邻区局部应力状态呈现的差异研究其发震机理.结果表明:家33井加压注水对其所在的B区地震活动具有明显的调控作用,负压注水阶段,注水量对地震活动的影响不大,地震活动处于较弱状态;加压注水阶段,在压力持续升高的背景下,地震活动明显增强,其频次、强度与注水量呈现较好的相关性.研究区三次4级地震震源较浅、且均为逆冲型,震源机制节面与其震中附近断层走向一致.基于大量小震震源机制解,统计获得B区震源机制节面走向和P轴方位较A区相对离散;与川东南地区已有应力场结果相比,反演获得的B区主压应力方位较A区扰动偏大,可见在统一应力场的作用下,A、B区域小震震源机制解节面走向、P轴方位及反演得到的局部区域应力场呈现出的差异,与家33井加压注水有一定的关系.     

An investigation into the effects of damping and nonlinear geometry models in earthquake engineering analysis

The growing emphasis of considering the behavior of structures at extreme performance states, such as collapse, has necessitated the characterization of the effects of varying attributes of the structural model. One source of variability that has not previously been considered is variability in the mathematical model. This study investigated the effects of changing the geometric nonlinearity approach and damping model on a four‐story buckling restrained braced frame, a four‐story steel moment resisting frame, and an eight‐story steel moment resisting frame. The variations in behavior are quantified using the maximum interstory drift ratio as the performance metric and qualified by comparing the relative displaced shapes and component response histories at the collapse performance state. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of teh seismic source stress field in teh joint region of Xianshuihe ,Long Monitoring the horizontal movement along the Shanxi faults

Twenty-two earthquakes (M _L=2.2–3.7) in the joint region of Xianshuihe, Longmenshan and An’ninghe faults are studied in this paper. The source mechanism solutions of these events are obtained using P-wave first motion method, and the characteristics of the source stress field and rupture in the joint region are summarized preliminarily with some results of other researchers. Being strongly extruded by the approximately horizontal regional stress with the direction from north-west to south-east and the effect of the complex tectonics in the region, the source stress field has complex and variable characteristics. The earthquakes mainly show normal or strike-slip faults in Yajiang, North-triangle and west of Chengdu-block areas, indicating that the vertical forces have been playing an important role in the source stress fields, while the earthquakes mainly show reverse or strike-slip faults in Baoxing-Tianquan area, with the horizontal components of the principal pressure stress axes identical to the south-west direction to which the shallow mass is moving. We think that the manifold combinations of earthquake faults are the micro-mechanism based upon which the large regional shallow crust mass has been moving continually.     

地震与气象异常

本文介绍了地震前和地震后气象异常的一些研究成果。统计结果表明,强震前1～4年震中地区出现干旱的概率比较大。我国寒冷时期地震的频数远较温暖时期高,地震前震中地区有增温现象。海洋和周缘发生特大地震过后,北半球和中国气温下降明显,黄河和长江可能出现洪灾。地震前、地震时和地震后,地震与气象的关系,是一个值得探索研究的领域。     

西南地区前兆观测异常特征和地震短期预测方法研究

通过对西南地区1970～2001年39组52次6级以上地震及四川部分5级以上地震震例资料的剖析,进一步研究西南地区各类前兆中、短期异常判据和指标;研究西南地区强震孕育前兆异常由中期向短期(临震)过渡、演化的标志和判据并作物理解释;并进行了西南地区前兆短期预测方法及强震短期预测时、空、强指标和判据的研究和西南地区地下流体新观测方法及灵敏测项的研究。     

Remote structural health monitoring with serially multiplexed fiber optic acoustic emission sensors

Development and testing of a serially multiplexed fiber optic sensor system is described. The sensor differs from conventional fiber optic acoustic systems, as it is capable of sensing AE emissions at several points along the length of a single fiber. Multiplexing provides for single channel detection of cracks and their locations in large structural systems. An algorithm was developed for signal recognition and tagging of the AE waveforms for detection of crack locations. Laboratory experiments on plain concrete beams and post-tensioned FRP tendons were performed to evaluate the crack detection capability of the sensor system. The acoustic emission sensor was able to detect initiation, growth and location of the cracks in concrete as well as in the FRP tendons. The AE system is potentially suitable for applications involving health monitoring of structures following an earthquake Supported by: National Science Foundation, Grant number CMS-9900338