Relationship between coral growth rate and sea surface temperature in the northern part of South China Sea during the past 100 a

To research the relationship between coral growth rate and sea surface temperatnre (T_ss), 5 cores of livingPorites lutea were collected from the Xisha Islands and the southern Hainan Island waters and measured. The results of the study show that there is an obviously positive correlation between the coral growth rates and theTss records from the northern part of South China Sea. The annual growth rates of the five samples ofPorites lutea during the past 100 a are in the range of 7—15 mm/a, and their mean value is 11 mm/a. The correlation coefficients between the coral growth rates and the T_ss records from the waters during 1961—1993 are in the range of 0.77—0.89. As a result, a thermometer of the coral growth rate is established. A hindcasting T_ss, in the waters from 1993 to 1961 has been obtained with an error of about 0.12—0.17°C. Based upon the calculated result, the rising rate of T_ss in the northern part of South China Sea during the past 100 a is 0.20°C. which is higher than that of the air temperature in China (0.09°C/100 a), but lower than that of the global temperature and that of T_ss in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. Project supported by the National Nutural Science Foundation of China and the Multidesciplinary Oceanographic Expedition Team of Chinese Academy of Sciences to the Nansha Islands.     

Forecasting and hindcasting waves with the SWAN model in the Southern California Bight

The Naval Research Laboratory created a wave forecasting system in support of the Nearshore Canyon Experiment (NCEX) field program. The outer nest of this prediction system encompassed the Southern California Bight. This forecasting system is described in this paper, with analysis of results via comparison to the extensive buoy network in the region. There are a number of potential errors, two of which are poor resolution of islands in the Bight—which have a strong impact on nearshore wave climate—and the use of the stationary assumption for computations. These two problems have straightforward solutions, but the solutions are computationally expensive, so an operational user must carefully consider their cost. The authors study the impact of these two types of error (relative to other errors, such as error in boundary forcing) using several hindcasts performed after the completion of NCEX. It is found that, with buoy observations as ground truth, the stationary assumption leads to a modest increase in root-mean-square error; this is due to relatively poor prediction of the timing of swell arrivals and local sea growth/decay. The model results are found to be sensitive to the resolution of islands; however, coarse resolution does not incur an appreciable penalty in terms of error statistics computed via comparison to buoy observations, suggesting that other errors dominate. Inaccuracy in representation of the local atmospheric forcing likely has a significant impact on wave model error. Perhaps most importantly, the accuracy of directional distribution of wave energy at the open ocean boundaries appears to be a critical limitation on the accuracy of the model-data comparisons inside the Bight.     

A study of dissipation of wind-waves by mud at Cassino Beach,Brazil: Prediction and inversion

The impact of a non-rigid seafloor on the wave climate at Cassino Beach, Brazil, May–June 2005 is studied using field measurements and a numerical wave model. The measurements consist of wave data at four locations; rheology and mud thickness from grab samples; and an estimate of the horizontal distribution of mud based on echo-soundings. The dissipation of waves by a non-rigid bottom is represented in the wave model by treating the mud layer as a viscous fluid. Applied for 431 time periods, the model without this type of dissipation has a strong tendency to overpredict nearshore wave energy, except during a period of large storm waves. Two model variations which include this dissipation have a modest tendency to underpredict the nearshore wave energy. An inversion methodology is developed and applied to infer an alternate mud distribution which, when used with the wave model, yields the observed waveheights.     

利用后向预报方法分析印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼资源评估模型

当前,对渔业资源评估模型的诊断与选择,主要依赖于模型对观察数据的拟合度,很少评价模型的预测能力、并将其作为评价渔业资源评估与管理质量的依据。为此,本文利用后向预报方法评价了印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼(Thunnus albacores)资源评估模型的预测能力,并在此基础上分析了印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼的资源评估与管理质量。研究表明,在利用贝叶斯剩余产量模型对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼进行资源评估时,存在如下问题:(1)拟合较好的模型其预测能力较差;(2)利用不同时段数据拟合模型时,采用DIC(Deviance Information Criterion)选择的最佳模型缺少稳定性;(3)不同模型估计的TAC (Total Allowable Catch)存在较大差异。据此可以判断,利用贝叶斯剩余产量模型对印度洋黄鳍金枪鱼进行资源评估与管理效果较差。本研究结果表明:(1)利用后向预报方法可评价模型的预测能力、DIC选择模型的稳定性,从而能在一定程度上判断模型模拟的种群演化动态是否正确、资源评估结果是否存在问题;(2)利用后向预报方法可揭示评估结果的不确定性及其可能引起的渔业管理风险,从而有利于避免渔业管理风险、实现渔业管理目标。