Enhanced identification of a hydrologic model using streamflow and satellite water storage data: A multicriteria sensitivity analysis and optimization approach

Hydrologic model development and calibration have continued in most cases to focus only on accurately reproducing streamflows. However, complex models, for example, the so‐called physically based models, possess large degrees of freedom that, if not constrained properly, may lead to poor model performance when used for prediction. We argue that constraining a model to represent streamflow, which is an integrated resultant of many factors across the watershed, is necessary but by no means sufficient to develop a high‐fidelity model. To address this problem, we develop a framework to utilize the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment's (GRACE) total water storage anomaly data as a supplement to streamflows for model calibration, in a multiobjective setting. The VARS method (Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces) for global sensitivity analysis is used to understand the model behaviour with respect to streamflow and GRACE data, and the BORG multiobjective optimization method is applied for model calibration. Two subbasins of the Saskatchewan River Basin in Western Canada are used as a case study. Results show that the developed framework is superior to the conventional approach of calibration only to streamflows, even when multiple streamflow‐based error functions are simultaneously minimized. It is shown that a range of (possibly false) system trajectories in state variable space can lead to similar (acceptable) model responses. This observation has significant implications for land‐surface and hydrologic model development and, if not addressed properly, may undermine the credibility of the model in prediction. The framework effectively constrains the model behaviour (by constraining posterior parameter space) and results in more credible representation of hydrology across the watershed.     

Aragonite and calcite preservation in sediments from Lake Iznik related to bottom lake oxygenation and water column depth

This study examines the forcing mechanisms driving long‐term carbonate accumulation and preservation in lacustrine sediments in Lake Iznik (north‐western Turkey) since the last glacial. Currently, carbonates precipitate during summer from the alkaline water column, and the sediments preserve aragonite and calcite. Based on X‐ray diffraction data, carbonate accumulation has changed significantly and striking reversals in the abundance of the two carbonate polymorphs have occurred on a decadal time scale, during the last 31 ka cal bp . Different lines of evidence, such as grain size, organic matter and redox sensitive elements, indicate that reversals in carbonate polymorph abundance arise due to physical changes in the lacustrine setting, for example, water column depth and lake mixing. The aragonite concentrations are remarkably sensitive to climate, and exhibit millennial‐scale oscillations. Extending observations from modern lakes, the Iznik record shows that the aerobic decomposition of organic matter and sulphate reduction are also substantial factors in carbonate preservation over long time periods. Lower lake levels favour aragonite precipitation from supersaturated waters. Prolonged periods of stratification and, consequently, enhanced sulphate reduction favour aragonite preservation. In contrast, prolonged or repeated exposure of the sediment–water interface to oxygen results in in situ aerobic organic matter decomposition, eventually leading to carbonate dissolution. Notably, the Iznik sediment profile raises the hypothesis that different states of lacustrine mixing lead to selective preservation of different carbonate polymorphs. Thus, a change in the entire lake water chemistry is not strictly necessary to favour the preservation of one polymorph over another. Therefore, this investigation is a novel contribution to the carbon cycle in lacustrine systems.     

A simple strategy for dynamic substructuring: I. Concept and development

Dynamic substructuring refers to physical testing with computational models in the loop. This paper presents a new strategy for such testing. The key feature of this strategy is that it decouples the substructuring controller from the physical subsystem. Unlike conventional approaches, it does not explicitly include a tracking controller. Consequently, the design and implementation of the substructuring controls are greatly simplified. This paper motivates the strategy and discusses the main concept along with details of the substructuring control design. The focus is on configurations that use shake tables and active mass drivers. An extensive experimental assessment of the new strategy is presented in a companion paper, where the influence of various factors such as virtual subsystem dynamics, control gains, and nonlinearities is investigated, and it is shown that robustly stable and accurate substructuring is achieved.     

P–T–t–d evolution of orogenic middle crust of the Roc de Frausa Massif (Eastern Pyrenees): a result of horizontal crustal flow and Carboniferous doming?

Structural, petrological and textural studies are combined with phase equilibria modelling of metapelites from different structural levels of the Roc de Frausa Massif in the Eastern Pyrenees. The pre‐Variscan lithological succession is divided into the Upper, Intermediate and Lower series by two orthogneiss sheets and intruded by Variscan igneous rocks. Structural analysis reveals two phases of Variscan deformation. D1 is marked by tight to isoclinal small‐scale folds and an associated flat‐lying foliation (S1) that affects the whole crustal section. D2 structures are characterized by tight upright folds facing to the NW with steep NE–SW axial planes. D2 heterogeneously reworks the D1 fabrics, leading to an almost complete transposition into a sub‐vertical foliation (S2) in the high‐grade metamorphic domain. All structures are affected by late open to tight, steeply inclined south‐verging NW–SE folds (F3) compatible with steep greenschist facies dextral shear zones of probable Alpine age. In the micaschists of the Upper series, andalusite and sillimanite grew during the formation of the S1 foliation indicating heating from 580 to 640 °C associated with an increase in pressure. Subsequent static growth of cordierite points to post‐D1 decompression. In the Intermediate series, a sillimanite–biotite–muscovite‐bearing assemblage that is parallel to the S1 fabric is statically overgrown by cordierite and K‐feldspar. This sequence points to ~1 kbar of post‐D1 decompression at 630–650 °C. The Intermediate series is intruded by a gabbro–diorite stock that has an aureole marked by widespread migmatization. In the aureole, the migmatitic S1 foliation is defined by the assemblage biotite–sillimanite–K‐feldspar–garnet. The microstructural relationships and garnet zoning are compatible with the D1 pressure peak at ~7.5 kbar and ~750 °C. Late‐ to post‐S2 cordierite growth implies that F2 folds and the associated S2 axial planar leucosomes developed during nearly isothermal decompression to <5 kbar. The Lower series migmatites form a composite S1–S2 fabric; the garnet‐bearing assemblage suggests peak P–T conditions of >5 kbar at suprasolidus conditions. Almost complete consumption of garnet and late cordierite growth points to post‐D2 equilibration at <4 kbar and <750 °C. The early metamorphic history associated with the S1 fabric is interpreted as a result of horizontal middle crustal flow associated with progressive heating and possible burial. The upright F2 folding and S2 foliation are associated with a pressure decrease coeval with the intrusion of mafic magma at mid‐crustal levels. The D2 tectono‐metamorphic evolution may be explained by a crustal‐scale doming associated with emplacement of mafic magmas into the core of the dome.     

Solution for a plane strain rough‐walled hydraulic fracture driven by turbulent fluid through impermeable rock

The impact of turbulent flow on plane strain fluid‐driven crack propagation is an important but still poorly understood consideration in hydraulic fracture modeling. The changes that hydraulic fracturing has experienced over the past decade, especially in the area of fracturing fluids, have played a major role in the transition of the typical fluid regime from laminar to turbulent flow. Motivated by the increasing preponderance of high‐rate, water‐driven hydraulic fractures with high Reynolds number, we present a semianalytical solution for the propagation of a plane strain hydraulic fracture driven by a turbulent fluid in an impermeable formation. The formulation uses a power law relationship between the Darcy‐Weisbach friction factor and the scale of the fracture roughness, where one specific manifestation of this generalized friction factor is the classical Gauckler‐Manning‐Strickler approximation for turbulent flow in a rough‐walled channel. Conservation of mass, elasticity, and crack propagation are also solved simultaneously. We obtain a semianalytical solution using an orthogonal polynomial series. An approximate closed‐form solution is enabled by a choice of orthogonal polynomials embedding the near‐tip asymptotic behavior and thus giving very rapid convergence; a precise solution is obtained with 2 terms of the series. By comparison with numerical simulations, we show that the transition region between the laminar and turbulent regimes can be relatively small so that full solutions can often be well approximated by either a fully laminar or fully turbulent solution.     

Connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from nested hillslopes and watersheds

Wildfire increases the potential connectivity of runoff and sediment throughout watersheds due to greater bare soil, runoff and erosion as compared to pre-fire conditions. This research examines the connectivity of post-fire runoff and sediment from hillslopes (< 1.5 ha; n = 31) and catchments (< 1000 ha; n = 10) within two watersheds (< 1500 ha) burned by the 2012 High Park Fire in northcentral Colorado, USA. Our objectives were to: (1) identify sources and quantify magnitudes of post-fire runoff and erosion at nested hillslopes and watersheds for two rain storms with varied duration, intensity and antecedent precipitation; and (2) assess the factors affecting the magnitude and connectivity of runoff and sediment across spatial scales for these two rain storms. The two summer storms that are the focus of this research occurred during the third summer after burning. The first storm had low intensity rainfall over 11 hours (return interval <1–2 years), whereas the second event had high intensity rainfall over 1 hour (return interval <1–10 years). The lower intensity storm was preceded by high antecedent rainfall and led to low hillslope sediment yields and channel incision at most locations, whereas the high intensity storm led to infiltration-excess overland flow, high sediment yields, in-stream sediment deposition and channel substrate fining. For both storms, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios and area-normalised cross-sectional channel change increased with the percent of catchment that burned at high severity. For the high intensity storm, hillslope-to-stream sediment delivery ratios decreased with unconfined channel length (%). The findings quantify post-fire connectivity and sediment delivery from hillslopes and streams, and highlight how different types of storms can cause varying magnitues and spatial patterns of sediment transport and deposition from hillslopes through stream channel networks.     

Degradation and Detoxification of Chlorophenols in Continuous‐Flow Fixed‐Bed Aerobic Reactors

An indigenous bacterial strain of Delftia sp. capable of degrading 2,4‐dicholorophenol and an indigenous bacterial community that degrades 2,4,6‐trichlorophenol (TCP) were employed to inoculate continuous down‐flow fixed‐bed reactors. Continuous‐reactors were constructed from PVC employing hollow PVC cylinders as support material. Synthetic wastewater was prepared by dissolving the corresponding chlorophenol in non‐sterile groundwater. Biodegradation was evaluated by spectrophotometry, chloride release, GC, and microbial growth. Detoxification was evaluated by using Daphnia magna as test organism. Delftia sp. was able to remove an average of 95.6% of DCP. Efficiency in terms of chemical oxygen demand (COD) was of 88.9%. The indigenous bacterial community that degrades TCP reached an average efficiency of 96.5 and 91.6% in terms of compound and COD removal, respectively. In both cases stoichiometric removal of chloride and detoxification was achieved. When synthetic wastewater feed was cut off for 7 days, both reactors showed a fast recovery after inflow restarting, reaching average outlet concentration values within 36 h. The promising behavior of the microorganisms and the low cost of the reactors tested allow us to suggest their possible application to remediation processes.     

Paleo‐fires and Atmospheric Oxygen Levels in the Latest Permian: Evidence from Maceral Compositions of Coals in Eastern Yunnan,Southern China

Inertinite maceral compositions of the Late Permian coals from three sections in the terrestrial and paralic settings of eastern Yunnan are analyzed in order to reveal the paleo-fire events and the atmospheric oxygen levels in the latest Permian. Although the macerals in the studied sections are generally dominated by vitrinite, the inertinite group makes up a considerable proportion. Its content increases upward from the beginning of the Late Permian to the coal seam near the Permian-Triassic boundary. Based on the microscopic features and the prevailing theory that inertinite is largely a by-product of paleo-fires, we suggest that the increasing upward trend of the inertinite abundance in the latest Permian could imply that the Late Permian peatland had suffered from frequent wildfires. Since ignition and burning depend on sufficient oxygen, a model-based calculation suggests that the O2 levels near the Wuchiapingian/Changhsingian boundary and the Permian-Triassic boundary are 27% and 28% respectively. This output adds supports to other discoveries made in the temporal marine and terrestrial sediments, and challenges the theories advocating hypoxia as a mechanism for the Permian-Triassic boundary crisis.     

Evaluating local population dynamics of the American lobster,Homarus americanus,with trap‐based mark‐recapture methods and seabed mapping

Seabed mapping, spatially referenced trapping, and mark‐recapture methods have all been useful tools in ecological studies of lobsters and other benthic animals. Here we integrate the three methods to evaluate local population dynamics and movements of American lobsters, Homarus americanus, in coastal fishing grounds in Maine, United States. The study was conducted on five study areas of different size, and used two different sampling protocols. At one site (1 km² in area) we used a monthly mark‐recapture sampling interval over a 6‐month period, only tagging a subsample of the catch. At four smaller sites (0.3 km²) we used a shorter‐term approach, sampling at 3–4‐day intervals for a 2‐week duration, tagging the entire catch. Tagging data were analysed with a modified Jolly‐Seber model adapted for continuous sampling to estimate population abundance, gains (immigration), and losses (emigration and mortality). Side‐scan sonar surveys of the seabed combined with diver‐based population surveys, stratified by substrate type, provided an independent comparison to mark‐recapture‐based estimates of abundance over the same areas. Spatial referencing of trap catch also allowed us to relate catch rates and lobster movements directly to seabed features. The longer‐term tagging data on the larger study area provided abundance estimates that were more consistent with the diver observations, and estimates of gains and losses statistically more robust, than those derived from the shorter‐term effort on the smaller sites. The flux of lobsters followed the well known seasonal movements on these fishing grounds, with gains and losses from the larger study area ranging over 1000 individuals per day, and an estimated mid‐summer peak density of >65 000 lobsters per km² (individuals >50 mm carapace length). This approach may lend itself to broader application with the American lobster.     

An analytical study on three‐dimensional versus two‐dimensional water table‐induced flow patterns in a Tóthian basin

Although it has been increasingly acknowledged that groundwater flow pattern is complicated in the three‐dimensional (3‐D) domain, two‐dimensional (2‐D) water table‐induced flow models are still widely used to delineate basin‐scale groundwater circulation. However, the validity of 2‐D cross‐sectional flow field induced by water table has been seldom examined. Here, we derive the analytical solution of 3‐D water table‐induced hydraulic head in a Tóthian basin and then examine the validity of 2‐D cross‐sectional models by comparing the flow fields of selected cross sections calculated by the 2‐D cross‐sectional model with those by the 3‐D model, which represents the “true” cases. For cross sections in the recharge or discharge area of the 3‐D basin, even if head difference is not significant, the 2‐D cross‐sectional models result in flow patterns absolutely different from the true ones. For the cross section following the principal direction of groundwater flow, although 2‐D cross‐sectional models would overestimate the penetrating depth of local flow systems and underestimate the recharge/discharge flux, the flow pattern from the cross‐sectional model is similar to the true one and could be close enough to the true one by adjusting the decay exponent and anisotropy ratio of permeability. Consequently, to determine whether a 2‐D cross‐sectional model is applicable, a comparison of hydraulic head difference between 2‐D and 3‐D solutions is not enough. Instead, the similarity of flow pattern should be considered to determine whether a cross‐sectional model is applicable. This study improves understanding of groundwater flow induced by more natural water table undulations in the 3‐D domain and the limitations of 2‐D models accounting for cross‐sectional water table undulation only.