基于标准化降水指数的内蒙古地区干旱时空变化特征

利用内蒙古及周边地区70个气象站1951~2014年降水数据,采用标准化降水指数等方法,对内蒙古近64年气候干旱时空变化进行分析。结果表明:研究区近64年来除西部年际、春、秋、冬季,中部春、秋季及东部春、冬季气候趋于湿润外,其他均趋于干旱。中、东部年际、植(作)物生长期SPI在2001年和1990年左右发生突变,东部突变后趋于干旱并在2006年左右又发生明显转折后趋于湿润。西部在1960s干旱严重,中、东部在1990s至2000s干旱严重。西部年际SPI由西北向东南、东部由南向北干旱趋势速率呈阶梯状下降,中部干旱趋势速率较西、东部快;植(作)物生长期SPI空间变化与年际一致,但西、中部干旱趋势明显的区域有所扩大。     

An extreme wave event in eastern Yucatán,Mexico: Evidence of a palaeotsunami event during the Mayan times

The Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico, has typically been considered a tectonically stable region with little significant seismic activity. The region though, is one that is regularly affected by hurricanes. A detailed survey of ca 100 km of the eastern Yucatán and Cozumel coast identified the presence of ridges containing individual boulders measuring >1 m in length. The boulder ridges reach 5 m in height and their origin is associated with extreme wave event activity. Previously modelled tsunami waves from known seismically active zones in the region (Muertos Thrust Belt and South Caribbean Deformed Belt) are not of sufficient scale in the area of the Yucatán Peninsula to have produced the boulder ridges recorded in this study. The occurrence of hurricanes in this region is more common, but two of the most destructive (Hurricane Gilbert 1988 and Hurricane Wilma 2005) produced coastal waves too small to have created the ridges recorded here. In this paper, a new tsunami model with a source area located on the Motagua/Swan Island Fault System has been generated that indicates a tsunami event may have caused the extreme wave events that resulted in the deposition of the boulder ridges.     

DO4事件的精确定年及亚旋回特征: 来自福建龙岩仙云洞石笋的证据*

DO4事件(Dansgaard-Oeschger event 4,简称DO4事件)是发生在MIS3阶段后期的1次明显升温事件。根据福建仙云洞石笋(编号XYⅢ-28)300~500 mm层段6个高精度²³⁰Th年龄和188个氧同位素数据,获得了29.13~27.94 kyrB.P.时期平均分辨率达7 yr的东亚夏季风强度的演变过程数据。该石笋 δ¹⁸O 记录的DO4事件起止时间为28.83±0.06~28.46±0.06 kyr B.P.,持续时间为0.37±0.06 kyr。相对基于GICC05年层计数时标NGRIP冰芯 δ¹⁸O 记录在DO4开始阶段的突变特征,仙云洞石笋记录的DO4事件开始阶段 δ¹⁸O 值在145±60 yr内偏负0.4‰,表现为相对缓慢的变化特征,这说明仙云洞所处的中国东南沿海地区有可能受到热带低纬海气耦合的影响。此外,仙云洞石笋 δ¹⁸O 记录揭示了在DO4事件内部及附近存在一系列的百年至十年际尺度夏季风增强事件,与格陵兰冰芯 δ¹⁸O 记录、阿拉伯海海盆反照率记录的DO4事件亚旋回结构在定年误差范围内相对应,表明东亚夏季风强度与北高纬温度变化和ITCZ(赤道辐合带)位置移动在百年至十年际尺度上存在紧密的联系。     

利用爆破事件分析不同速度模型下常规定位方法定位结果

地震定位对速度模型的依赖性很强.四川地区地形复杂,常规工作中可选取多种速度模型进行定位.川西龙门山断裂带为东南部四川盆地和西北部青藏高原东部山区的明显分界线,近年在此断裂带上发生多次较大地震.对发生在该断裂带附近的6个爆破事件和15个天然地震重新定位,并对比结果.研究表明,相同台站包围情况下,川滇3D速度模型稳定性最好,但对浅表爆破不太准确.相比HypoSat(一维速度模型)组合,台站分布对Hypo2000(一维速度模型)和Hypo2000(赵珠速度模型)组合的定位结果影响较大.     

Analysis of Paleoseismic Events of Dahuzhuang Trench at the Xiadian Fault

The Xiadian Fault is a very important concealed active fault in the Beijing Plain. It is the seismogenic fault of the Sanhe-Pinggu M_S8.0 earthquake in 1679. The ancient earthquake sequence in the long historical period is of great significance to understand accurately the activity characteristics of the fault and effectively reduce the earthquake disaster risk in Beijing. We have re-interpreted the Dahuzhuang trench, and identified three layers of buried paleosol, six collapsed wedges and one sand liquefaction event. Further, through the comparison with the landmark strata and paleo-earthquake events revealed by other trenches on the fault, an ancient earthquake sequence with a long historical period of the Xiadian Fault was established:since the 31ka, the Xiadian Fault has 11 occurrences of earthquake events (including the 1679 earthquake), and the average recurrence interval is about 2.8ka. The paleo-seismic sequence also shows that there is an ancient earthquake cluster period from 25ka to 15ka, and there are 5 strong earthquakes in the cluster period. The average recurrence interval is about 2.0ka, which reflects the phase difference of the Xiadian Fault activity.     

青藏高原东南缘热流估算及与地震活动相关性分析

青藏高原东南缘地区内部构造运动强烈,是地热资源发育与地震事件频发的活动地区.大地热流记录了发生在地球深部各种作用过程的热学信息,可以作为地质构造活动和地震活动研究的有效约束,但是大范围的热流数据测量很难实现,因此,本文根据居里面深度结合放射性元素分布等计算了青藏高原东南缘的大地热流分布.首先,通过地表放射性元素的分布计算出地表产热量的分布,然后,利用相关地热参数之间的关系迭代计算出该地区地壳上下层的热导率分布,最终估算出地表热流及地下不同深度处热流值的分布.本文结果表明:(1)青藏高原东南缘的大地热流位于44～108mW·m~(-2)之间,平均75mW·m~(-2),符合研究地区西南高、东北低的背景趋势,地壳内部热流值随深度的增加而降低.大部分地区地表热流异常与实际地热带分布相吻合,如川西、藏东南与滇西地区等地为地热高值区,川东和楚雄等地为热流低值区.(2)结合其他地球物理探测结果,总结了地壳内部热流与地震事件的联系:在地热梯度带地区,当两侧地层在一定深度范围内存在明显物性差异时,地震事件高发.     

西南区域持续性干旱事件的行星尺度和天气尺度扰动信号

以2009-2010年发生在中国西南地区的持续性干旱事件为例,通过干旱和大气变量的物理分解得到了一些干旱事件发生的新认识.气象干旱多为年循环的气候干季与干旱扰动的叠加所致.一次干旱扰动大约为30-50天,而一次持续性干旱事件是由几次干旱扰动组成的.大气高度场和风场中存在三种时间尺度的扰动.一种是年际行星尺度的大气扰动,与ENSO冷暖事件有关,起源于赤道并传播到中高纬度地区需要2-4年.另一种是季节内行星尺度的大气扰动,与来自赤道地区的30-50天振荡有关.此外,大气中还存在天气尺度的扰动.利用行星尺度大气扰动向赤道外传播与天气尺度扰动的叠加,区域持续性干旱事件能够找到前期预报信号.     

牡丹江地区夏季旱涝特征及前兆信号初探

利用牡丹江地区7个测站35年(1967～2001年)夏季(6～8月)平均降水资料,用修订过的正态化Z指数变换方法,对牡丹江地区夏季降水旱涝等级进行了划分,并分析La Nina事件对夏季旱涝的影响。结果表明：牡丹江地区夏季旱涝特征明显,具有阶段性和群发性特点,较重旱涝发生的几率较大;而且对La Nina事件有明显的响应,表现在事件的增长型期间牡丹江地区夏季易发生偏旱,而在减弱型期间易发生雨涝,并认为La Nina事件可以作为预测未来牡丹江地区夏季旱涝的一个重要参考因子。     

Magnetic minerals in Mid-Pleistocene sediments on the Caiwei Guyot,Northwest Pacific and their response to the Mid-Brunhes climate event

Seamounts are ubiquitous topographic units in global oceans, and their influences on local oceanic circulation have attracted great attention in physical oceanography; however, previous efforts were less made in paleoclimatology and paleoceanography. The Caiwei Guyot in the Magellan Seamounts of the western Pacific is a typical seamount, and in this study, we investigate a well-dated sediment core by magnetic properties to reveal the relationship between deep-sea sedimentary processes and global climate changes. The principal results are as follows: (1) the dominant magnetic minerals in the sediments are low-coercivity magnetite in pseudo-single domain range, probably including a biogenic contribution; (2) the variabilities of magnetic parameters can be clustered into two sections at ～500 ka, and the differences between the two units are evident in amplitudes and means; (3) changes in the grainsize-dependent magnetic parameters can be well correlated to records of global ice volume and atmospheric CO2 in the middle Pleistocene. Based on these results, a close linkage was proposed between deep-sea sedimentary processes in the Caiwei Guyot and global climate changes. This linkage likely involves different roles of biogenic magnetite in the sediments between interglacial and glacial intervals, responding to changes in marine productivity and deep-sea circulation and displaying a major change in the Mid-Brunhes climate event. Therefore, we proposed that the sedimentary archives at the bottom of the Caiwei Guyot record some key signals of global climate changes, providing a unique window to observe interactions between various environmental systems on glacial-interglacial timescales.     

USE OF SEISMIC WAVEFORMS AND INSAR DATA FOR DETERMINATION OF THE SEISMOTECTONICS OF THE MAINLING MS6.9 EARTHQUAKE ON NOV.18, 2017

On November 18, 2017, a M_S6.9 earthquake struck Mainling County, Tibet, with a depth of 10km. The earthquake occurred at the eastern Himalaya syntaxis. The Namche Barwan moved northward relative to the Himalayan terrane and was subducted deeply beneath the Lhasa terrane, forming the eastern syntaxis after the collision of the Indian plate and Asian plates. Firstly, this paper uses the far and near field broadband seismic waveform for joint inversion (CAPJoint method)of the earthquake focal mechanism. Two groups of nodal planes are obtained after 1000 times Bootstrap test. The strike, dip and rake of the best solution are calculated to be 302°, 76° and 84° (the nodal plane Ⅰ)and 138°, 27° and 104° (the nodal plane Ⅱ), respectively. This event was captured by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR)measurements from the Sentinel-1A radar satellite, which provide the opportunity to determine the fault plane, as well as the co-seismic slip distribution, and assess the seismic hazards. The overall trend of the deformation field revealed by InSAR is consistent with the GPS displacement field released by the Gan Wei-Jun's team. Geodesy (InSAR and GPS)observation of the earthquake deformation field shows the northeastern side of the epicenter uplifting and the southwestern side sinking. According to geodetic measurements and the thrust characteristics of fault deformation field, we speculate that the nodal plane Ⅰ is the true rupture plane. Secondly, based on the focal mechanism, we use InSAR data as the constraint to invert for the fine slip distribution on the fault plane. Our best model suggests that the seismogenic fault is a NW-SE striking thrust fault with a high angle. Combined with the slip distribution and aftershocks, we suggest that the earthquake is a high-angle thrust event, which is caused by the NE-dipping thrust beneath the Namche Barwa syntaxis subducted deeply beneath the Lhasa terrane.