西太平洋副热带高压中期变化的数值试验 Ⅰ.青藏高原热源的作用

用一个全球谱模式作数值试验研究了１９７９年６月中旬一次西太平洋副热带高压西伸北进的中期天气过程中青藏高原热源的作用。结果表明：高原的热力作用主要表现在对副高北侧锋区的形成、锋区瓣强度以及与锋区对应的对流层中上层西风急流的强度有较大的影响,有高原热力作用时,锋眍和西风流的强度都强,反之则很弱;另外还发现青藏高原感热和潜热作用是相互依赖的,在一定的天气过程中,弧立起来讨论其各自的相对重要性不太合符实际     

西太平洋副热带高压中期变化的数值试验 Ⅱ.热带西太平洋热源的作用

用一个全球谱模式作数值试验,研究了１９７９年６月中旬一次西太平洋副热带高压西伸北进的中期天气过程中热带西太平洋地区理想热源的作用。结果表明：理想热源的作用大约在４天以后可以影响我国东部的副热带高压和中高纬度的环流;理想热源在热带洋面上产生的扰动首先沿副高南边的东风气流向西北方向传播,到中纬西风带后分为两支,一支继续向西北方向传播,另一支转向东北偏东方向传播,两支扰动的共同作用,导致了副热带高压和西风带环流的变化。     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF MEDIUM-RANGE CHANGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH Ⅰ. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HEATING SOURCE OVER TIBET PLATEAU

The medium-range change of the subtropical high of June 1979 and its influences of the heating sources over Tibet Plateau are studied by using a global circulation spectrum-model. The analyses of the simulation results show that the heating sources over Tibet Plateau play an important role in the process of frontogenesis. the intensity of frontal zone and the upper-tropospheric westerly jet associated with it. When there are heating sources over Tibet Plateau. both the frontal zone and westerly jet are stronger. There are very important mutual relations between the sensible heating and latent heating. After the sensible heating and latent heating are isolated.it departs much from reality that the significance of them are studied     

Evaporation of perennial semi‐arid woodland in southeastern Australia is adapted for irregular but common dry periods

Measurements of water vapour flux from semi‐arid perennial woodland (mallee) were made for 3 years using eddy covariance instrumentation. There have been no previous long‐term, detailed measures of water use in this ecosystem. Latent energy flux (LE) on a half hourly basis was the measure of the combined soil and plant evaporation, ‘evapotranspiration’ (E_LE) of the site. Aggregation over 3 years of the site measured rain (1136 mm) and the estimated evaporation (794 mm) suggests that 342 mm or 30% of rain had moved into or past the root zone of the vegetation. Above average rainfall during 2011 and the first quarter of 2012 (633 mm, 15 months) would likely have been the period during which significant groundwater recharge occurred. At times immediately after rainfall, E_LE rates were the same or exceeded estimates of potential E calculated from a suitably parameterized Penman–Monteith (E_PMo) equation. Apparent free water E from plant interception and soil evaporation was about 2.3 mm and lasted for 1.3 days following rainfall in summer, while in autumn, E was 5.1 mm that lasted over 5.4 days. The leaf area index (LAI) needed to adjust a wind function calibrated Penman equation (E_PMe) to match the E_LE values could be back calculated to generate seasonal change in LAI from 0.12 to 0.46 and compared well with normalized difference vegetation index; r = 0.38 and p = 0.0213* and LAI calculated from digital cover photography. The apparently conservative response of perennial vegetation evaporation to available water in these semi‐arid environments reinforces the conclusion that these ecosystems use this mechanism to survive the reasonably common dry periods. Plant response to soil water availability is primarily through gradual changes in leaf area. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An analysis of change in alpine annual maximum discharges: implications for the selection of design discharges

The paper presents an analysis of 17 long annual maximum series (AMS) of flood flows for Swiss Alpine basins, aimed at checking the presence of changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima. We apply Pettitt's change point test, the nonparametric sign test and Sen's test on trends. We also apply a parametric goodness‐of‐fit test for assessing the suitability of distributions estimated on the basis of annual maxima collected up to a certain year for describing the frequency regime of later observations. For a number of series the tests yield consistent indications for significant changes in the frequency regime of annual maxima and increasing trends in the intensity of annual maximum discharges. In most cases, these changes cannot be explained by anthropogenic causes only (e.g. streamflow regulation, construction of dams). Instead, we observe a statistically significant relationship between the year of change and the elevation of the catchment outlet. This evidence is consistent with the findings of recent studies that explain increasing discharges in alpine catchments with an increase in the temperature controlling the portion of mountain catchments above the freezing point. Finally, we analyse the differences in return periods (RPs) estimated for a given flood flow on the basis of recent and past observations. For a large number of the study AMS, we observe that, on average, the 100‐year flood for past observations corresponds to a RP of approximately 10 to 30 years on the basis of more recent observation. From a complementary perspective, we also notice that estimated RP‐year flood (i.e. flood quantile (FQ) associated with RP) increases on average by approximately 20% for the study area, irrespectively of the RP. Practical implications of the observed changes are illustrated and discussed in the paper. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tracing variability of run‐off generation in mountainous permafrost of semi‐arid north‐eastern Mongolia

The headwaters of mountainous, discontinuous permafrost regions in north‐eastern Mongolia are important water resources for the semi‐arid country, but little is known about hydrological processes there. Run‐off generation on south‐facing slopes, which are devoid of permafrost, has so far been neglected and is totally unknown for areas that have been affected by recent forest fires. To fill this knowledge gap, the present study applied artificial tracers on a steppe‐vegetated south‐facing and on two north‐facing slopes, burned and unburned. Combined sprinkling and dye tracer experiments were used to visualize processes of infiltration and water fluxes in the unsaturated zone. On the unburned north‐facing slope, rapid and widespread infiltration through a wet organic layer was observed down to the permafrost. On the burned profile, rapid infiltration occurred through a combusted organic and underlying mineral layer. Stained water seeped out at the bottom of both profiles suggesting a general tendency to subsurface stormflow (SSF). Ongoing SSF could directly be studied 24 h after a high‐intensity rainfall event on a 55‐m hillslope section in the burned forest. Measurements of water temperature proved the role of the permafrost layer as a base horizon for SSF. Repeated tracer injections allowed direct insights into SSF dynamics: A first injection suggested rather slow dispersive subsurface flow paths; whereas 18 h later, a second injection traced a more preferential flow system with 20 times quicker flow velocities. We speculate that these pronounced SSF dynamics are limited to burned slopes where a thermally insulating organic layer is absent. On three south‐facing soil profiles, the applied tracer remained in the uppermost 5 cm of a silt‐rich mineral soil horizon. No signs of preferential infiltration could be found, which suggested reduced biological activity under a harsh, dry and cold climate. Instead, direct observations, distributed tracers and charcoal samples provided evidence for the occurrence of overland flow. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Combined use of spot samples and continuous integrated sampling in a study of storm runoff from a lowland catchment in the south of England

We have used two different sampling techniques to study the geochemical response of a small lowland rural catchment to episodic storm runoff. The first method involves traditional daily spot sampling and has been used to develop a standard end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) of the relative contributions of ground water flow and surface runoff to the total stream flow. The second method utilizes a continuous sampling device, powered by an osmotic pump, to produce an integrated 24‐h sample of the stream flow. When combined with the EMMA results from the spot samples, analyses of the integrated samples reveal the presence of a third component that makes a significant contribution to the dissolved NO₃, Ca and K export from the catchment during the rising limb of the hydrographic profile of a storm event following a prolonged dry period. The storm occurred in the middle of the night, so that the response of the stream chemistry was not captured by the daily samples. We hypothesize that this third component is derived from the flushing of stored soil water that contains the geochemical signature of decaying vegetation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ACMEG‐TS: A constitutive model for unsaturated soils under non‐isothermal conditions

This paper introduces an unconventional constitutive model for soils, which deals with a unified thermo‐mechanical modelling for unsaturated soils. The relevant temperature and suction effects are studied in light of elasto‐plasticity. A generalized effective stress framework is adopted, which includes a number of intrinsic thermo‐hydro‐mechanical connections, to represent the stress state in the soil. Two coupled constitutive aspects are used to fully describe the non‐isothermal behaviour. The mechanical constitutive part is built on the concepts of bounding surface theory and multi‐mechanism plasticity, whereas water retention characteristics are described using elasto‐plasticity to reproduce the hysteretic response and the effect of temperature and dry density on retention properties. The theoretical formulation is supported by comparisons with experimental results on two compacted clays. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.