中国严寒和寒冷地区城镇住宅采暖耗能影响因素分析——以吉林省为例

以吉林省为例,在假设历年采暖建筑物标准室温为18℃和不同建筑物热工特性相同的前提下,认为在一定建筑设计标准下,直接影响严寒和寒冷地区城镇住宅采暖耗能的因子主要有采暖强度、城镇人口数、人均住宅建筑面积.以1978年城镇人口数、城镇人均住宅建筑面积为经济资料的基准值,以1971～2000年采暖强度的30 a平均值作为气候条件的基准值,得到采暖耗能基准值,进而计算1979年开始的逐年采暖耗能变化值,得出无论气候变暖或变冷,由于城镇人口、人均住宅建筑面积不断增加,使各地采暖耗能增加.气候是目前为止唯一可以起到降低能耗作用的因子.     

Pricing Weather Derivatives Index based on Temperature: The Case of Bahir Dar,Ethiopia

In this paper we present a stochastic model for daily average temperature to calculate the temperature indices upon which temperature-based derivatives are written. We propose a seasonal mean and volatility model that describes the daily average temperature behavior using the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We also use higher order continuous-time autoregressive process with lag 3 for modeling the time evolution of the temperatures after removing trend and seasonality. Our model is fitted to 11 years of data recorded, in the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2015, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia, obtained from Ethiopia National Meteorological Services Agency. The analytical approximation formulas are used to price heating degree days (HDD) and cooling degree days (CDD) futures. The suggested model is analytically tractable for derivation of explicit prices for CDD and HDD futures and option. The price of the CDD future is calculated, using analytical approximation formulas. Numerical examples are presented to indicate the accuracy of the method. The results show that our model performs better to predict CDD indices.     

To the problem of solar coronal heating

We consider the adequacy of various solar coronal heating models. We show that the correlation between the intensity of the coronal Fe XIV 530.5 nm green line and the calculated magnetic field strength in the solar corona can be a useful tool for this purpose. We have established this correlation for coronal structures and magnetic fields of large spatial and temporal scales. The correlation found exhibits a strong dependence on both solar cycle phase and heliolatitude. The efficiency of a particular coronal heating mechanism is probably determined by the relative area occupied by low and high loops (including open structures). The direct current models based on slow field dissipation (DC) and the wave models based on Alfvén and magnetosonic wave dissipation (AC) are more efficient in the equatorial and polar zones, respectively.     

Effects of the seasonal variation in chlorophyll concentration on sea surface temperature in the global ocean

The effects of biological heating on the upper-ocean temperature of the global ocean are investigated using two ocean-only experiments forced by prescribed atmospheric fields during 1990–2007, on with fixed constant chlorophyll concentration, and the other with seasonally varying chlorophyll concentration. Although the existence of high chlorophyll concentrations can trap solar radiation in the upper layer and warm the surface, cooling sea surface temperature (SST) can be seen in some regions and seasons. Seventeen regions are selected and classified according to their dynamic processes, and the cooling mechanisms are investigated through heat budget analysis. The chlorophyll-induced SST variation is dependent on the variation in chlorophyll concentration and net surface heat flux and on such dynamic ocean processes as mixing, upwelling and advection. The mixed layer depth is also an important factor determining the effect. The chlorophyll-induced SST warming appears in most regions during the local spring to autumn when the mixed layer is shallow, e.g., low latitudes without upwelling and the mid-latitudes. Chlorophyll-induced SST cooling appears in regions experiencing strong upwelling, e.g., the western Arabian Sea, west coast of North Africa, South Africa and South America, the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean, and strong mixing (with deep mixed layer depth), e.g., the mid-latitudes in winter.     

天然含钒金红石加热、淬火及电子辐射改性实验研究

天然含钒金红石样品经过1273K加热、淬火和高能电子辐照处理后性质发生不同程度的变化。XRD谱峰显示处理前后样品没有发生物相变化，显微IR图谱证明原样、加热、淬火样品的表面有少量吸附水存在，而辐射样品的显微IR图谱上没有检测到吸附水的吸收峰。用XPS分析比较了处理前后样品表面主要元素Ti、O和V的价态及含量，结果表明，原样经过处理后表面钒和氧的原子百分含量增加，其中淬火样品表面吸附水和钒的含量相对于原样增加最为明显，光催化活性相应较高；加热样品表面的吸附水和钒的含量比原样稍有增加，光催化活性与原样相当；电子辐射样品表面钒的原子百分含量相对原样增加不明显，而对水的吸附能力相对原样较低，光催化效率也略低。     

Heating status of the Tibetan Plateau from April to June and rainfall and atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia in midsummer

Based on the 1958-1999 monthly averaged reanalysis data of the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the rainfall data of 160 Chinese surface stations, the relationship between rainfall and the atmospheric circulation anomaly over East Asia (EA) in July and the sensible heating (SH) over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) from April to June (AMJ) is investigated by using the rotational experimental orthogonal function (REOF) method. The results show that the TP is an isolated heating source in this period. The lagged correlation analysis between the first rotational principal component (RPC) of SH over the TP in May and rainfall of EA in July demonstrates that strong SH over the TP before July leads to a positive rainfall anomaly over the TP, the valley between the Yangtze River and Huaihe River, and the regions south and southeast of the TP, and the Sichuan Basin and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau, but less rainfall anomaly over the regions north, northeas     

主要造岩矿物微波敏感性试验研究

采用频率2 450 MHz多模谐振腔对11种常见主要造岩矿物试样进行了微波辐射试验。根据升温速率和温度增量对其微波敏感性进行了研究。对赤峰玄武岩、鞍山辉长岩和昆明砂岩进行了矿物成分测试,根据其矿物成分组成预测3种岩石的微波吸收能力,通过微波辐射试验对预测结果进行了验证。然后对3种岩石进行了单轴压缩强度测试,研究了微波辐射后岩石的强度折减与岩石微波吸收能力的关系。结果表明：主要造岩矿物的微波吸收能力可分为3类,且表现出非常不同的微波吸收能力;根据岩石的矿物成分组成可预测岩石的微波吸收能力,含有强微波吸收能力矿物的岩石也具有较强的微波吸收能力;岩石的微波吸收能力越强,微波辐射后岩石单轴压缩强度的折减程度越大。     

鲁中南一次暴雨过程的特征和成因分析

利用常规气象观测资料、NCEP 1°×1°逐6h的再分析资料、GPS可降雨资料和地闪定位资料,对2013年7月4—5日山东中南部出现的暴雨到大暴雨天气过程的不同阶段特征和成因进行了分析,结果表明:本次暴雨过程是冷暖切变线所引发,暴雨的水汽源于南海;低空急流的强弱和水汽通量的大小呈正相关;暖切变线暴雨的雨强、影响范围和持续时间明显大于冷切变线暴雨;冷、暖切变线GPS可降雨量表现不同,前者短时间内增幅大,地面强降雨在峰值出现1h后发生,对地面降雨变化反映较敏感,后者强降雨出现前8h可降雨量快速上升,可降雨量峰值对应地面降雨大值,对地面降雨变化反映不敏感;冷切变线对流性更强,地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的2倍,正地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的1/2,负地闪频次为暖切变线降雨的2倍;降雨云团正、负地闪活跃程度呈反相位关系,正、负地闪的变化能很好地反映强降雨的变化;冷、暖切变线动力结构不同,前者物理量场从低层到高层向北倾斜,后者则为垂直分布;冷切变线上升运动区较暖切变线深厚。     

燃烧加热污染空气对超燃冲压发动机性能影响研究

针对燃烧加热地面试验设备存在的工质污染问题,采用数值模拟方法研究了燃烧加热污染空气对氢燃料超燃冲压发动机性能的影响。以飞行马赫数Ma=6.5,当量油气比ER=0.6为计算基准状态,分别对纯净空气和污染空气来流下氢燃料超燃冲压发动机的整机流场和性能进行了对比计算分析。燃烧化学反应模拟采用了改进的H₂/O₂七组分八方程模型,湍流模型为标准的 k-ε模型,并采用直连式燃烧室试验数据进行了数值方法的验证。研究结果表明:(1)相对于纯净空气来流,污染空气来流下的超燃冲压发动机推力和比冲均有所下降。(2)采用酒精燃烧加热器的前提下,来流参数匹配静温、静压、马赫数时,发动机性能与纯净空气来流下的结果最为接近,而匹配总温、总压、马赫数时相差最大。(3)来流参数匹配总焓、静压、马赫数的前提下,采用氢燃烧加热器时发动机性能与纯净空气来流下的结果最为接近,而采用甲烷燃烧加热器时相差最大。      

鲁北平原地下咸水浅层地热能开发利用条件研究

为了解决鲁北平原区农村冬季清洁供暖问题,扩大地下水地源热泵系统的应用规模,以区内广泛发育的咸水体为研究目标,在简述第四纪地层特征的基础上,阐明了第四纪含水砂层与咸水体的分布特征,总结了区内以往开展的4个浅层地热能勘查项目所施工的水文地质勘探孔抽水试验与回灌试验成果.结果表明:研究区咸水含水层单井涌水量320~475 m3/d,单位涌水量12.76~28.3 m3/(d·m),自然回灌条件下单井回灌量30~56 m3/d,单位回灌量5.85~17.5 m3/(d·m);单眼开采井可供暖面积为3481.02 m2,可满足约35户农村住宅的冬季供暖需求;研究区在进行浅层地热能开发时建议优先选择地下水地源热泵系统,对于供暖/制冷能耗需求较小的农村单户建筑,可选择地埋管地源热泵系统进行分散式供暖/制冷.