First finds of Late Tithonian and middle-late Albian radiolarian assemblages in volcanogenic-siliceous rocks of the Amur River right lower reaches and their tectonic significance

The lithological-stratigraphic study of volcanogenic-siliceous rocks developed on the left side of the Machtovaya River, a right tributary of the Amur River, yielded the first radiolarian assemblages of the late Late Tithonian, the late Late Tithonian-early Valanginian, and the middle-late Albian age. It is established that the stratigraphic succession of volcanogenic-siliceous rocks in this area is composed of upper Tithonian-Valanginian dark red to red-brown cherts with basalts in the lower part of the section and Albian dark gray clayey cherts, olive-gray siliceous-tuffaceous argillites, and tufaceous siltstones in its upper part. The replacement of cherts by their clayey varieties likely occurred in the Aptian. The composition, structure, and age of these strata and the rocks constituting the Kiselevka-Manoma accretionary complex are different, which indicates their different tectonic origin.     

A new concept of pedogenic nodule formation in landscapes of the Russian Far East

The typification of ferromanganese nodules (FMN) formed in subaqueous and subaerial settings and in residual materials, as well as FMN localization in various sediments and soils, is discussed. The genetic diversity of morphologically similar FMN and the transformation of FMN-bearing complexes with changes in landscapes have been established.     

Paleomagnetic studies of the Late Mesozoic deformation stage in the southern Primorye region

The analysis of paleomagnetic data available for the southern Primiorye region revealed that the studied objects were magnetized under regional remagnetization presumably during the Late Mesozoic folding and this magnetization can be interpreted as being synfolding. The interpretation is based on the parameter that characterizes the folding completion degree immediately before regional remagnetization. It is shown that the relaxation of Late Mesozoic horizontal stresses was irregular. The obtained estimates of the degree of folding completion are consistent with the available geological data and Talitskii’s model for tectonic deformations.     

北京及邻区微震活动的初步分析

通过对北京遥测地震台网近年来记录到的北京及邻区地震的震中分布,地震活动频度及能量释放强度的分析,得到本区地震活动在时间分布上具有“聚堆性”。在年发震频度,地震强度和能释放方面均具有双峰值特征,并且具有较好的一致性和同步性,在空间分布上具有条带特征,且形成北东～南西和北西～南东的两条相互交汇的条带。又通过统计分析得到本区发震概率最大的时间段是每年的１０月前后,而地震主要发生在北西～南东带上。     

The dynamics and thermodynamics of large ash flows

 Ash flow deposits, containing up to 1000 km³ of material, have been produced by some of the largest volcanic eruptions known. Ash flows propagate several tens of kilometres from their source vents, produce extensive blankets of ash and are able to surmount topographic barriers hundreds of metres high. We present and test a new model of the motion of such flows as they propagate over a near horizontal surface from a collapsing fountain above a volcanic vent. The model predicts that for a given eruption rate, either a slow (10–100 m/s) and deep (1000–3000 m) subcritical flow or a fast (100–200 m/s) and shallow (500–1000 m) supercritical flow may develop. Subcritical ash flows propagate with a nearly constant volume flux, whereas supercritical flows entrain air and become progressively more voluminous. The run-out distance of such ash flows is controlled largely by the mass of air mixed into the collapsing fountain, the degree of fragmentation and the associated rate of loss of material into an underlying concentrated depositional system, and the mass eruption rate. However, in supercritical flows, the continued entrainment of air exerts a further important control on the flow evolution. Model predictions show that the run-out distance decreases with the mass of air entrained into the flow. Also, the mass of ash which may ascend from the flow into a buoyant coignimbrite cloud increases as more air is entrained into the flow. As a result, supercritical ash flows typically have shorter runout distances and more ash is elutriated into the associated coignimbrite eruption columns. We also show that one-dimensional, channellized ash flows typically propagate further than their radially spreading counterparts. As a Plinian eruption proceeds, the erupted mass flux often increases, leading to column collapse and the formation of pumiceous ash flows. Near the critical conditions for eruption column collapse, the flows are shed from high fountains which entrain large quantities of air per unit mass. Our model suggests that this will lead to relatively short ash flows with much of the erupted material being elutriated into the coignimbrite column. However, if the mass flux subseqently increases, then less air per unit mass is entrained into the collapsing fountain, and progressively larger flows, which propagate further from the vent, will develop. Our model is consistent with observations of a number of pyroclastic flow deposits, including the 1912 eruption of Katmai and the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. The model suggests that many extensive flow sheets were emplaced from eruptions with mass fluxes of 10⁹–10¹⁰ kg/s over periods of 10³–10⁵ s, and that some indicators of flow "mobility" may need to be reinterpreted. Furthermore, in accordance with observations, the model predicts that the coignimbrite eruption columns produced from such ash flows rose between 20 and 40 km. Received: 25 August 1995 / Accepted: 3 April 1996     

Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

Seismic hazard of Egypt

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.     

Environmental geology problems in the Tyrrhenian coastal area of Santa Marinella, province of Rome, central Italy

 The Tyrrhenian resort of S. Marinella (central Italy) is subjected to significant anthropogenic pressures during the summer vacation period, a common situation all along the Italian coast. Located 65 km NW of Rome on the southern slopes of the Tolfa Mountains, S. Marinella is built on a gently sloping, E–W trending belt which is cut by 14 N–S oriented ephemeral streams that discharge into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The low to medium permeability turbiditic sandstones which outcrop along this belt belong to the Late Cretaceous Pietraforte unit. Three environmental problems are addressed in this study. The first problem is related to the high water supply demand during the summer months which has forced local residents to dig a large number of wells. Extensive pumping from these wells has caused salt-water intrusion into the Pietraforte, thus compromising the domestic use of the groundwater. The second problem consists of the illegal dumping of urban solid waste, material that represents a hazard during significant rain events as well as a possible cause of groundwater contamination. The final issue addressed concerns the flooding potential of the 14 ephemeral streams that cross the inhabited area of S. Marinella, a risk which is highlighted by the disastrous flood which occurred on 2 October 1981 and during the period of the Roman Emperor Settimio Severo (205 A.D.). Some suggestions are proposed to mitigate and contain the effects of these problems. Received: 7 November 1995 / Accepted: 5 December 1996     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.