动态系统时间连续模型建立的新途径：以山西地区为例

应用动态系统时间连续模型建立的新方法[DM(n,b)模型],通过对山西地区Ms≥5.5地震的建模,讨论DM(n,h)模型对小区域地震预测的可行性.并给出了山西地区的地震预报结果.     

粉煤灰中微珠的初步研究

火电厂排放出的粉煤灰,通常作为制砖材料,但若作精加工,可大大提高其经济价值。其中微珠耐高温,可作高温保温充填粉;碳灰含碳量达70％以上,可加工成碳素产品。     

张北6.2级地震序列特征

１９９８年１月１０日张北６．２级地震后,我们根据《地震现场工作大纲和震情分析指南》用ｂ值ｈ值、ｕ值,ｋ值对该次地震序列进行了综合判定。结果认为此次地震为主震余震型。张北地震序列在衰减过程中出现以４级地震为峰值有节律的起伏,在时间上有较规则的准周期,且每一组起伏前密集－平静规律十分明显。     

强震序列叠加时h值计算及其震情预测应用

在强震群活动中定量计算并扣除前面强震序列的影响是正确估算后续强震序列频度衰减系数ｈ值的关键。     

Silicate and hydrocarbon emission from Galactic M supergiants

Following our discovery of unidentified infrared (UIR) band emission in a number of M supergiants in h and χ Per, we have obtained 10-μm spectra of a sample of 60 galactic M supergiants. Only three new sources, V1749 Cyg, UW Aql and IRC+40 427, appear to show the UIR bands; the others show the expected silicate emission or a featureless continuum. The occurrence of UIR-band emission in M supergiants is therefore much higher in the h and χ Per cluster than in the Galaxy as a whole. Possible explanations for the origin and distribution of UIR bands in oxygen-rich supergiants are discussed. We use our spectra to derive mass-loss rates ranging from 10⁻⁸ to 10⁻⁴ M_⊙ yr⁻¹ for the new sample, based on the power emitted in the silicate feature. The relationship between mass-loss rate and luminosity for M supergiants is discussed, and correlations are explored between their mid-infrared emission properties.     

基于平滑伪魏格纳-维勒分布的时频分析方法的震例回溯性研究

以四川及其邻区现有地磁台站数据为研究对象,基于平滑伪魏格纳-维勒分布的时频分析方法(SPWVD),对其进行时频计算,并对康定地震、九寨沟地震附近地磁台站及中强震活跃时段与平静时段的川滇地区部分地磁台站Z分量滤波后周期为4. 4h的振幅变化特征进行回溯性震例分析。研究发现:2014年康定地震之前,震中附近7个地磁台站4. 4h振幅存在同步高值异常现象,其中5个台的幅值为震前所研究时段的最高值;九寨沟地震前,震中附近6个台站存在同步相对高值的异常现象,其中3个台的幅值为震前所研究时段的最高值; 2014年川滇地震活跃时期,该区域地磁台站普遍存在4. 4h振幅同步异常,台站数量多、振幅大,与此时间段内中强地震发生强度呈正相关,在时间上呈现短临特征; 2018年川滇地区中强地震活动平静时期,4. 4h振幅变化较平稳,异常振幅相对较小,而后活跃期间同步异常的最大振幅增大且异常台站数量增加。综上所述,通过SPWVD时频方法对地磁数据进行处理和分析,以此得到的规律和认识,对未来川滇地区中强地震预测和研判区域地震活动性的强弱有积极意义。     

CPOD successful in trial for detecting Māui dolphin outside harbours

Critically endangered Māui dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori maui) are found exclusively off the west coast of New Zealand’s North Island. One important data gap troubling efforts to reduce the current unsustainable level of bycatch is the limited information on the offshore and alongshore limits of their range. Passive acoustic monitoring studies could address this data gap, but Māui dolphin habitat is dominated by a sandy substrate that can shift greatly in the strong local currents. In February 2016, a short pilot CPOD deployment was thus attempted as a first step to see if the equipment could be deployed and recovered in the area and if the data collected would be viable, with a second unit deployed inside a harbour for comparison with earlier TPOD data. The pilot was largely successful, and roughly 11% of all minutes in the core habitat location contained detections of clicks attributed to Māui dolphin. A visual inspection of the data suggests some trends with diel and tidal patterns. Further work of this type is thus recommended.     

A Local Least-Squares Modification of Stokes’ Formula

The combination of Stokes formula and an Earth Gravity Model (EGM) for geoid determination has become a standard procedure. However, the way of modifying Stokes formula vary from author to author, and numerous methods of modification exist. Most methods are deterministic, with the primary goal of reducing the truncation bias committed by limiting the area of Stokes integration around the computation point, but there are also some stochastic methods with the explicit goal to reduce the global mean square error of the geoid height estimator stemming from the truncation bias as well as the random errors of the EGM and the gravity data. The latter estimators are thus, at least from a theoretical point of view, optimal in a global mean sense, but in a local sense they may be far from optimality.Here we take advantage of the error variance-covariance matrices of the EGM and the terrestrial gravity data to derive the modification parameters of Stokes kernel in a local least-squares sense. The solution is given for the unbiased type of modification of Stokes formula of Sjöberg (1991).     

西藏高原测站降水与TRMM估测降水一致性评估

利用124个测站2011—2012年6—8月逐小时降水资料,分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的TRMM估测降水和DEM 高程数据,采用相关系数、相对误差和准确性指标,分析了西藏高原TRMM估测降水整体表现能力及海拔高度对降水估测影响。结果表明：TRMM估测降水在西藏高原整体趋势较一致,降水量级偏大,次数偏多;平均无降水准确率远高于平均有降水准确率,漏测率低而空测率高,降水量大的测站TRMM估测能力相对强。西藏高原上大部分测站处于相对低洼（河谷）地带,海拔高度差较小的区域TRMM估测降水与测站降水误差小,较大的区域误差则大。