资源环境保护下天津市用地空间增长模拟

从资源承载和生态保护的角度预测城镇土地利用变化,是实现国土空间用途管制的客观需求。以典型缺水城市天津市为研究区,采用系统动力学模型预测土地利用规模、最小成本路径法构建生态廊道和FLUS模型模拟土地利用变化等方法,分别模拟自然扩张和资源环境保护情景下天津市2035年土地利用情况。结果表明：① 资源约束条件显著制约城镇人口和建设用地的超量发展,随着资源约束增强、科技发展增速,人口和建设用地增长量随之降低,城镇GDP保持稳定增长。② 天津市重要生态廊道以南北向联系为主,东部和北部生态廊道重要性较高,部分生态廊道由于路径较长或距离建设用地较近而面临被蚕食挤压的风险。③ 水体湿地在资源环境保护情境下面积略有增长,在自然扩张情境下则延续以往不可持续的发展模式,出现向草地退化的情况,部分生态源地和廊道受到耕地侵占和建设用地扩张的影响。④ 受交通发展和京津职住分离的影响,天津市城镇建设用地增长主要发生在蓟州、武清和宝坻区。此外,在资源环境保护情景下,中心城区和滨海新区增长率较低,津南区表现出较大发展潜力。以资源环境承载约束城镇扩张,能够为国土空间规划实践提供科学引导。     

阿拉善高原荒漠植被组成分布特征及其环境解释 Ⅲ.植物功能群多样性对环境因素的响应

采用水分生态型(包括旱生植物、旱中生植物、中生植物和湿生植物)、生活型(灌木、半灌木、多年生草本和一二年生草本)和植物主要光合途径(C3和C4)等方法将研究区的植物种类进行了功能群(functional groups/types)划分,为进一步认知荒漠生态系统的结构、功能和过程提供了分析基础。植物功能类群相对集中是阿拉善荒漠植被组成的一个重要特点,这主要和植物趋于旱化、生态型相对简单密切相关。按优势功能群依次为:PFTs1(旱生C3一二年生草本)、PFTs2(旱生C3多年生草本)、PFTs3(旱生C3灌木)、PFTs4(旱生C3半灌木)、PFTs5(旱生C4一二年生草本)、PFTs7(旱生C4灌木)和PFTs8(旱生C4半灌木)。气候、土壤理化指标决定着植物功能类群的分布。其中年均降水量、湿润系数决定着植物的生态型、生活型在水平地带上的分布特征,同时,也影响C3和C4植物(海拔梯度上)的分布。土壤容重、砂粒、粉粒含量决定着植物生活型特征,而土壤pH值、Cl-、SO42-和Ca2+决定着植物水分生态类型的空间分布。这些结果揭示了极端干旱区植物对胁迫环境响应的多样性,是对极端环境条件下如何理解生物多样性维持机制和可持续发展的较好生态学解释。     

贫困视角下的中国区域经济增长规律及其管治研究

采用贫穷增长曲线方法,研究了中国的区域经济增长规律。根据中国1994~2006年地级市的人口和GDP数据,总体来看,随着经济增长,中国地区差距呈扩大趋势,但区域平均GDP增长率越高,地区差距拉大的趋势就越小。1998~2000年,受亚洲金融危机影响,中国呈现贫困化经济增长,GDP增长率最低,地区差距急剧扩大;2003~2004年是亚洲金融危机后中国平均GDP增长率最高的年份,基本符合减贫经济增长,地区差距缩小;其余年份基本符合涓滴经济增长,即随着经济增长,虽然绝对贫穷得到了缓解,但贫困地区人口的收入份额降低,地区差距扩大。针对这种情况,提出了中国经济增长的区域管治是必要的。     

USE OF BOMB-14C TO INVESTIGATE THE GROWTH AND CARBON TURNOVER RATES OF A CRUSTOSE LICHEN

The reliability of lichenometric dating is dependent on a good understanding of lichen growth rates. The growth rate of lichens can be determined from direct measurement of growing lichens or indirect methods by measuring lichens growing on surfaces of known age, although there are limitations to both approaches. Radiocarbon (¹⁴C) analysis has previously been used in only a handful of studies to determine lichen growth rates of two species from a small area of North America. These studies have produced mixed results; a small amount of carbon turnover appears to occur in one of the species ( Caloplaca spp.) previously investigated introducing uncertainty in the growth rate, while much higher carbon cycling occurred in another ( Rhizocarpon geographicum ), making the ¹⁴C approach unsuitable for estimating growth rates in the species most commonly used in lichenometric dating. We investigated the use of bomb-¹⁴C analysis to determine the growth rate of a different crustose species ( Pertusaria pseudocorallina ) common to Northern Europe. ¹⁴C-based growth rates were considerably higher than growth rates of morphologically similar species based on direct measurement made at locations nearby and elsewhere in the UK. This observation strongly suggests that a degree of carbon turnover probably occurs in Pertusaria pseudocorallina , and that bomb-¹⁴C analysis alone cannot be used to determine lichen age or absolute growth rates in this lichen species.     

Winter climate change at different temporal scales in Vaccinium myrtillus, an Arctic and alpine dwarf shrub

Snow cover strongly influences plant growth in Arctic and alpine ecosystems. Snow characteristics and snowmelt timing are likely to change in a warmer climate. We studied year rings and shoot growth of the dwarf shrub bilberry ( Vaccinium myrtillus ), and species abundances of the vegetation, in response to early or late snowmelt at a study site in the Central Alps, near Davos, Switzerland. Snowmelt was manipulated on experimental plots for 3 and 30 years. Additional plots were set up along a natural snowmelt gradient, and at high and low elevation. Growth ring data showed an increasing trend in annual growth increment over the last 20 years, especially in the extraordinarily hot summer of 2003. Comparing high and low elevation sites, growth rings were wider at low elevation, but only in cold years. In years with relatively cold summers, however, xylem ring width was greater in plots with late rather than early snowmelt along the natural snowmelt gradient, possibly indicating drought stress in early snowmelt plots. Snow cover had a strong influence on species abundances along the natural snowmelt gradient, and change (not yet significant) was beginning to be seen in plots with 30 years of snow manipulation. Our results indicate that beneficial effects of early snowmelt for shrub growth may be offset in cold summers. Although early snowmelt prolongs the growing season, harsh conditions and frost events early in the growing season may become more likely, and hamper plant growth, and this could affect plant growth in all Arctic and alpine snow-dominated ecosystems.     

The impact of armed conflict and forced migration on urban expansion in Goma: Introduction to a simple method of satellite-imagery analysis as a complement to field research

The effects of armed conflict on cities constitute a large field of research in both conflict studies and urban studies. The topic of urban expansion is also explored by the domain of remote sensing, a sub-branch of geoinformation science. Remote sensing researchers analyze the spatial development of cities in conflict and non-conflict environments using satellite imagery.However, a dialogue or collaboration between these disciplines is virtually non-existent in the scientific discourse, mainly due to stark differences in their methodologies – namely, intensive on-the-ground field research in the case of conflict and urban studies and highly elaborate computer-based analysis of remotely-gathered data in the case of remote sensing.We aim to demonstrate a simple and thus feasible approach for the use of satellite imagery by non-experts of remote sensing, to add a spatio-temporal dimension to the results of in-depth field studies. We apply our approach to the city of Goma, in the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which is located at the center of protracted armed conflict that has raged for decades. With the support of local knowledge acquired during field visits, we visually analyze a time series of Landsat data and add our own results to those of existing research. Contextualizing the mapped results of Goma's urban expansion between 1986 and 2015, we show how urban growth is linked to particular waves of forced displacement caused by different stages of armed conflict and one particular natural disaster.     

长江经济带建设用地扩张与经济增长关系及区域差异

基于长江经济带11个省份2002—2014年的面板数据,运用空间计量生产函数模型对建设用地扩张与经济增长的关系及区域差异进行研究。结果表明:长江经济带经济增长具有显著的空间正相关性,空间效应估计结果表明空间误差模型能够很好拟合样本数据的特征,传统回归模型存在局限;建设用地投入对经济增长具有促进作用,但贡献程度小于资本和劳动力,投资驱动仍然是目前经济增长的主要方式;分区域看,上游地区建设用地要素投入对经济增长的贡献最大,中游地区次之,下游地区最小,主要原因是各区域的经济发展水平不同。鉴于土地要素对经济增长的贡献差异,提出合理引导建设用地扩张和维持经济持续健康发展的差异化政策建议。     

CLUSTERS AND COMPLEXES OF MEDIUM-SIZED URBAN MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS: TWO CASE STUDIES IN BRAZIL *

Industrial linkages of two medium-sized Brazilian urban manufacturing systems are analyzed. Clusters are similar to those of the national economy while complexes are uneven for the two cities which implies that neither the size nor the diversity of the local industry influences the evolution of complexes. Development depends on time and on the volume (threshold) of manufacturing activity. If manufacturing complexes are carefully implemented and maintained, medium-sized centers might become viable manufacturing growth center communities.     

抚顺煤田区域的工业化与城市形态及结构演化研究

通过研究抚顺煤田区域由煤炭资源开发而导致的工业化和城市形态形成过程，首先讨论资源型城市形成的自然基础及经济活动的作用，进而揭示了煤炭城市形态形成的阶段性规律；其次，分析了资源型城市内部的资源开发区域与工商业区域的分化及其独特的形态与内部结构；第三，发现抚顺市存在着明显的二元城市形态与内部结构，采煤区域的多级直线型结构与工商业区域的多核心组合式结构共存；第四，提出了抚顺煤田区域工业化与城市形态及结构演化的基本模式，并评价了经典的弗雷德曼（Friedmann.J）区域发展模式。     

25年来秦俑馆旅游生命周期与结构变化研究

将旅游地的成长看成是有生命的自组织过程,以1980-2005年统计数据,着眼陕西秦始皇兵马俑博物馆入境旅游、国内旅游、客源结构、人均消费及旅游收入的变化过程分析,从新角度探讨了旅游地的成长与结构变化的关系,丰富了对旅游地生命周期的认识。结果发现,秦俑馆入境旅游呈“扇贝型”增长,国内旅游为“主循环-再循环型”周期波动,入境游客在总游客中所占比例逐渐提高,人均旅游消费额不断提升,致使旅游经济收入摆脱了客流量生命周期的影响而得益延长,为我国国际名牌旅游产品从外延性客流量增长走向内涵型旅游收入增长提供了某些借鉴。