The state‐of‐the‐art in marine navigation

Tide gauges distributed all over the world provide valuable information for monitoring mean sea level changes. The statistical models used in estimating sea level change from the tide gauge data assume implicitly that the random model components are stationary in variance. We show that for a large number of global tide gauge data this is not the case for the seasonal part using a variate-differencing algorithm. This finding is important for assessing the reliability of the present estimates of mean sea level changes because nonstationarity of the data may have marked impact on the sea level rate estimates, especially, for the data from short records.     

Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential Index Along Western Coast of South Korea Using SPT and CPT

For South Korea, liquefaction potential along the western coast has not been widely assessed because South Korea is considered to be a low seismic hazard. However, recent earthquake events and historical records indicate that the seismic hazard of South Korea should not be ignored. Moreover, as artificial fills are extensively used along the western coast for development, liquefaction evaluation of the soils in this area is necessary. In this paper, we present: (1) the seismic characteristics of the study area; (2) procedures for evaluating liquefaction potential, focusing on the liquefaction potential index (LPI) approach; and (3) LPI distributions at several representative locations along the western coast of South Korea under various seismic scenarios. The liquefaction potential index represents the liquefaction potential over the upper 20 m of a boring or sounding. Using cone penetration test (CPT) and standard penetration test (SPT) data from two coastal sites, we compare and discuss CPT-based and SPT-based LPI values, particularly values computed in nonplastic, silt-rich soils. In these soils, it appears that the CPT yields lower liquefaction resistance, resulting in large LPI values. Finally, discussion and suggestions are provided for CPT- and SPT-based liquefaction assessment of low plasticity and high fines content soils.     

Updated Support Vector Machine for Seismic Liquefaction Evaluation Based on the Penetration Tests

Simplified techniques based on in situ testing methods are commonly used to predict liquefaction potential. Many of these simplified methods are based on finding the liquefaction boundary separating two categories (the occurrence or non-occurrence of liquefaction) through the analysis of liquefaction case histories. As the liquefaction classification problem is highly nonlinear in nature, it is difficult to develop a comprehensive model taking into account all the independent variables, such as the seismic and soil properties, using conventional modeling techniques. Hence, in many of the conventional methods that have been proposed, simplified assumptions have been made. In this study, an updated support vector machine (SVM) based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to evaluate liquefaction potential in two separate case studies. One case is based on standard penetration test (SPT) data and the other is based on cone penetration test (CPT) data. The SVM model effectively explores the relationship between the independent and dependent variables without any assumptions about the relationship between the various variables. This study serves to demonstrate that the SVM can “discover” the intrinsic relationship between the seismic and soil parameters and the liquefaction potential. Comparisons indicate that the SVM models perform far better than the conventional methods in predicting the occurrence or non-occurrence of liquefaction.     

土壤碳储量计算中不同插值方法对比研究——以吉林省大安市为例

土壤碳储量问题是大气温室效应和全球变化研究的热点问题。本文采用“单位土壤碳量”方法,计算了吉林省大安市表层土壤有机碳总储量和平均土壤有机碳储量,以为全球碳循环研究提供精确的基础数据。分析和比较了反距离加权、全局多项式、局部多项式、径向基函数和普通克里格等不同插值模型对表层单位土壤有机碳储量空间插值结果的影响,结果表明全局多项式插值的均差最小,径向基函数中张力样条法的平均绝对误差最小,普通克里格法的标准差最小。综合分析来看,普通克里格的有理二次方程式模型插值精度最高。      

突发地质灾害气象预警统计模型与应用

通过引入地质灾害潜势度,突发地质灾害气象预警统计模型解决了雨量判据法不能明确表达地质环境条件的问题,在此基础上,提出了潜势度计算、大气降雨变量设计、预警方程优化3方面的改进方法。为提高潜势度计算的准确性,增加了基于卡方检验的地质环境因子独立性判别步骤;对地质环境因子确信程度初始值和权值计算中确信程度变化量初始值设置进行了规定;并将预警模型中累计雨量修正为更为合理的有效累计雨量。在现有的预警方程的基础上提出了基于联合概率分析的预警方程,避免了其与基本地质认识和物理规律存在一定距离、方程系数的意义不明确的局限。以2009年7月2日发布的24 h雨量预报为例,计算结果表明：虽然预报区域面积从101 008 km²减小到27 553 km²,但是地质灾害点落入预报区的比例从44%增加到62%。这说明通过改进的预警模型理论上更加严密,空间准确率有所提高,空报率有所下降。     

鄂尔多斯盆地上古生界山西组页岩气成藏条件及勘探潜力

为了研究鄂尔多斯盆地上古生界页岩气的勘探潜力,对鄂尔多斯盆地二叠系山西组富有机质泥页岩样品有机地球化学、物性特征及等温吸附等方面测试获得的参数进行了数理统计和测井响应特征分析。研究发现：有效泥页岩单层厚度变化较大,最厚可达15 m以上,盆地主体部位w(TOC)一般大于1.0%,有机质类型主要为Ⅱ₂型及Ⅲ型,镜质体反射率平均为1.66%,属于成熟-高成熟阶段,有利于有机质热解生气,具备页岩气成藏的基本地质条件。黏土矿物主要以伊利石（44.9%）和高岭石（33.6%）为主,泥页岩孔隙度平均为3.98%,渗透率平均为0.133×10^-3 μm²。泥页岩吸附含气量平均为1.94 m³/t。综合考虑泥页岩有效厚度、有机质丰度、有机质类型、热演化程度以及含气量等因素,预测鄂尔多斯盆地山西组页岩气有利区主要位于天环坳陷西北角、陕北斜坡带东北角及盆地中南部等区域。     

黔东南天锦黎地区矿田级金矿定位预测——兼论勘查及研究程度较低地区的矿产预测方法

黔东南天柱-锦屏-黎平地区金矿勘查及研究程度较低,在进行矿产预测时必须有针对性地进行成矿地质背景、成矿规律、物化遥信息、找矿标志、预测要素等专题研究,更多关注成矿地质背景、成矿规律对矿产预测的主导作用,找准影响矿产预测的主要因素,客观适度地赋予物化遥信息对矿产预测的权重。同时,在条件不成熟时可将预测精度降至矿田-矿床级的定位预测,从整体上评价每个金矿田的找矿远景,并对某些部位找到矿床的可能性作进一步评述。采用了多种预测要素权重的简单相加法进行定位预测,而未具体开展基于GIS的定量预测,意在强调地质勘查及研究程度较低地区开展各项专题研究的重要性,并探讨简化矿产预测程序的可行性。经尝试,适宜于该类地区矿田级定位预测的简化流程为：a.相关专题研究;b.预测要素研究及赋值;c.各矿田成矿概率的计算及找矿远景分类;d.各矿田资源潜力评价。通过该方法尝试,该区获得找矿远景区A类4个、B类3个、C类3个。     

1960-2011年长江流域潜在蒸发量的时空变化特征

以长江流域123个气象站1960-2011年逐日气象数据为基础, 应用Penman-Monteith模型, 在ArcGIS环境下通过IDW插值法、 TFPW-MK、 R/S等方法分析了全流域潜在蒸发量变化的时空变化、 趋势性和持续性, 并探讨了影响潜在蒸发量的主要气象因素.结果表明: 年潜在蒸发量自1960年以来至2002年呈波动减少趋势, 2003-2009年呈显著增加趋势, 整体为增加趋势; 其中, 上游高原区、 上游盆地区、 下游区年潜在蒸发量呈增加趋势, 中游区呈下降趋势, 增幅最大的是上游盆地区.四季中, 春、 夏、 秋季和年潜在蒸发量具有持续性, 未来将持续增加.最低气温、 最高气温是影响长江流域潜在蒸发量增加的主要因子.     

基于真三轴试验的黄土结构性变化规律研究

基于综合结构势理论,通过自主研发的真三轴仪,研究了原状黄土、重塑黄土和饱和黄土的应力-应变关系和土的结构性变化规律,针对反映黄土变形过程结构性演变的应力比结构性参数,揭示了不同含水率黄土结构性参数与广义剪应变关系随固结压力、应力路径的变化规律,建立了数学描述模型,同时验证了真三轴仪和应力比结构性参数的可靠性。结果表明,土的状态不同,其应力-应变关系存在明显差异。原状土更易呈现应变软化或双曲线特性,而重塑土或饱和土更易呈现双曲线或应变硬化特性。随着剪切变形和含水率的增大,土的结构性均逐渐减小,而固结压力? c和中主应力参数b值也会影响土的结构性变化规律。提出的结构性参数的拟合公式与理论和试验结合吻合较好,可推广工程应用。     

Remote forcing of Indian Ocean warming on Northwest Pacific during E1 Nino decaying years： a FOAM model approach

This paper attempts to analyze in detail the remote influence of the Indian Ocean Basin warming on the Northwest Pacific （NWP） during the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Observation data and the Fast Ocean- Atmosphere coupled Model 1.5 were used to investigate the triggering conditions under which the remote influence is formed between the positive sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly in the North Indian Ocean and the Anomalous Northwest Pacific anticyclone （ANWPA）. Our research show that it is only when there is a contributory background wind field over the Indian Ocean, i,e., when the Indian Summer Monsoon （ISM） reaches its peak, that the warmer SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean incites significant easterly wind anomalies in the lower atmosphere of the Indo-West tropical Pacific. This then produces the remote influence on the ANWPA. Therefore, the SST anomaly in the North Indian Ocean might interfere with the prediction of the East Asia Summer Monsoon in the year of decaying E1 Nifio. Both the sustaining effect of local negative SST anomalies in the NWP, and the remote effect of positive SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean on the ANWPA, should be considered in further research.