塔里木河源区冰川系统变化趋势预测

塔里木河源区是我国冰川分布最集中的地区之一,总面积达17 745.51 km2,占全国冰川总面积的30%;同时本区又属于我国升温幅度最大的地区之一。应用冰川系统变化的功能模型,对塔里木河源区冰川系统在本世纪对气候变化的趋势进行预测。结果表明:到2050年,如气温比1961~1990年高出1.9~2.3℃,本区冰川面积将减少4%~6%,冰川径流将增加22%~34%,零平衡线将上升62~94 m;如此升温率持续到本世纪末,则本区冰川面积将减少10%~16%,冰川径流将会回落,但仍比本世纪初多11%~13%,零平衡线将上升156~233 m。     

Documentary Evidence of an Economic Character as a Source for the Study of Meteorological and Hydrological Extremes and their Impacts on Human Activities

This paper deals with documentary evidence of an economic character as a proxy for direct study of meteorological and hydrological extremes. Taxation records and reports of those who administrated domains and estates are described with respect to information about meteorological and hydrological extremes. Based on data from eight domains or estates from Moravia (in the Czech Republic), frequency series of floods and convective storms (including hailstorms) were developed for the period 1650–1849. One example of disastrous weather, which took place on 10 August 1694 in the Pern?tejn domain, is used to demonstrate the potential for such studies of the intensity of extremes and their impact on human activities. The importance of economic evidence in the instrumental period is shown through tax rebate data contingent upon hailstorm damage in Moravia (1896–1906). The benefits of employing documentary economic evidence for historical climatology and the study of the impact of meteorological and hydrological extremes on human activities are discussed.     

A geochronological approach to understanding the role of solar activity on Holocene glacier length variability in the Swiss Alps

We present a radiocarbon data set of 71 samples of wood and peat material that melted out or sheared out from underneath eight presentday mid‐latitude glaciers in the Central Swiss Alps. Results indicated that in the past several glaciers have been repeatedly less extensive than they were in the 1990s. The periods when glaciers had a smaller volume and shorter length persisted between 320 and 2500 years. This data set provides greater insight into glacier variability than previously possible, especially for the early and middle Holocene. The radiocarbon‐dated periods defined with less extensive glaciers coincide with periods of reduced radio‐production, pointing to a connection between solar activity and glacier melting processes. Measured long‐term series of glacier length variations show significant correlation with the total solar irradiance. Incoming solar irradiance and changing albedo can account for a direct forcing of the glacier mass balances. Long‐term investigations of atmospheric processes that are in interaction with changing solar activity are needed in order to understand the feedback mechanisms with glacier mass balances.     

青藏高原唐古拉山口第四纪冰碛层划分及其地质环境意义

在对唐古拉山口现代冰川和古冰川考察研究的基础上，结合定位观测资料和TL、^10B-^26Al-^21Ne及^14C测年数据，对区内第四纪冰川遗迹进行了深入讨论，划分出二次冰期(即中更新世晚期的倒数第二次冰期、晚更新世中一晚期的末次冰期)和二次全新世冰进(即新冰期和小冰期)。提出在早更新世时，由于山体未达到当时冰川发育的雪线高度，所以未发育冰川。但在唐古拉山口地区，截止目前还未找到中更新世早期的倒数第三次冰期的冰川遗迹，由于高原隆升的滞后性和冰川发育的延滞效应及“亚洲干极”的耦合，推测仍只发育局部冰川作用。进一步研究表明，古今雪线由高原边缘向腹地升高，唐古拉山地区高出边缘1500m左右，生动表现了“亚洲干极”的作用；广泛分布的湖群说明羌塘地区是一个大江大河尚未伸入的内流地区，意味着青藏高原是个年青的高原。由于青藏高原的隆升，对高原腹地引起的干旱化过程和水分严重不足，使唐古拉山地区的冰川自倒数第二次冰期以来，冰川规模一次比一次明显地减小。     

水库下游河流再造床过程中的河岸侵蚀

根据实测河道地形资料,分析了水库下游河床演变中的河岸侵蚀现象,包括不同横向边界约束条件、不同床沙组成和不同河型河段的河岸侵蚀的特征及规律。结果表明:①水库下游均会有河岸侵蚀发生,但初期一般以下切为主,后期以展宽为主。②对于横向边界约束较强的河段,河岸侵蚀相对较弱;相反,则河岸坍塌严重,河岸侵蚀强烈;③对不同的河床组成和边滩组成的河段:河床较粗特别是形成抗冲粗化层,且边滩组成较细的河段,河岸侵蚀现象非常剧烈;河床组成较细的河段,如果边滩抗冲性较强,则河岸侵蚀现象相对较弱,如果滩地组成较细、容易坍塌,河岸侵蚀也会较强;④不同的河型有着不同的河岸侵蚀现象。分汊河段以主汊为主;游荡段的游荡特性在初期受到抑制;弯曲河段的撇弯切滩现象较普遍。     

叶尔羌河冰川阻塞性洪水发生的气象因素

2002年8月12日，叶尔羌河再次发生因高原冰川阻塞形成的洪水。本文对叶尔羌河历次高原冰川阻塞性洪水的成因以及与气象的关系做了较详尽的分析，并提出了从气象角度预报该类型洪水的方法和利用卫星遥感技术对冰川阻塞湖进行监测的建议，期望对叶尔羌河今后的防洪工作有一些指导意义。     

青藏高原各拉丹冬地区冰川变化的遥感监测

以位于青藏高原长江源头的各拉丹冬地区冰川为例, 利用2000年的TM数字遥感影像资料、 1969年的航空相片遥感资料、地形图及数字地形模型, 通过遥感图像处理和分析提取研究区小冰期最盛期(LIA)、 1969年和2000年的冰川范围, 并在地理信息系统技术支持下分析该地区冰川的进退情况. 研究结果表明, 该地区1969年冰川面积比小冰期最盛期的冰川面积减少了5.2%, 2000年的冰川面积比1969年的冰川面积减少了1.7%. 从1969年到2000年最大冰川退缩速度为-41.5 m*a-1, 最大冰川前进速度为+21.9 m*a-1. 本区的冰川基本处于稳定状态, 冰川退缩的速度不是太大, 并有前进的冰川存在.     

塔里木盆地北部白垩系卡普沙良群储层特征

白垩系卡普沙良群是塔里木盆地北部重要的油气储集层位之一，包括亚格列木组层、舒善河组和巴西盖组储集层（有称为卡普沙良群中上部储集层）。从储层岩石学、储层物性、储层孔隙结构及储集性控制因素等方面对储层特征进行了系统分析，总结储层的储集特征。研究结果表明，该储层为砂岩储集岩，储层物性及孔隙结构较好，储集性纵横向上分别受沉积韵律与沉积相带展布的控制，同时还受压实作用、溶蚀作用和胶结作用等成岩作用的控制；并认为亚格列木组储集性较好，横向上以跨越阿克库勒－沙雅西的储集砂体为最好，它具有多套砂体叠置发育的特点。     

纪念中国冰缘地貌研究的启动者——裴文中教授

裴文中教授是中国冰缘地貌研究的启动者,他在近半个世纪前发表的两篇论文紧跟国际科学研究发展形势,详细阐述了冰缘作用的特点、过程及其对解决中国东部第四纪古冰川问题的意义。裴老最主要的贡献在于他当时强调了在古冰缘研究中综合分析环境背景的重要性,而不是孤立地研究冰缘现象,这种在地学研究中必须遵循的原则,对于现在的科学研究工作者仍然有很大的启示。     

Simulation of individual particle movement in a gravel streambed

A two‐dimensional simulation model of travel distances of individual particles in a gravel‐bed river is presented. The model is based on a number of rules, which include particle size, entrainment, trajectory, distance of movement and entrapment. Particle interactions are controlled by resistance fields defined about each obstacle and critical elevation defined in the model. Resistance fields, particle dropping and critical elevation rules control particle interactions. The interaction rules cause the particles to develop pebble clusters, stone cells and transverse structures (transverse ribs). The simulated travel distances of individual particles are consistent with reported field results. Individual particle travel distances were simulated using two different models; one without interactions between the individual particles and the stationary bed and one with interactions. The case without interactions demonstrates the random nature of sediment transport, and narrow ranges of travel distances. Wider ranges of travel distances, similar to those for natural situations, were obtained for the cases with interactions. The more intense the interaction between the mobile stones and the stationary ones, the wider the range of distances of travel for a given particle size. Modelling the mean travel distance yielded a result similar to that published previously, which was based on empirical data. Well developed bed‐surface structures were obtained for relatively poorly sorted sediment with intense interactions between particles. Transverse structures developed when relatively large particles were allowed to move. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.