Statistical and geostatistical features of streambed hydraulic conductivities in the Platte River, Nebraska

This paper presents streambed hydraulic conductivities of the Platte River from south-central to eastern Nebraska. The hydraulic conductivities were determined from river channels using permeameter tests. The vertical hydraulic conductivities (K _v ) from seven test sites along this river in south-central Nebraska belong to one statistical population. Its mean value is 40.2 m/d. However, the vertical hydraulic conductivities along four transects of the Ashland test site in eastern Nebraska have lower mean values, are statistically different from the K _v values in south-central Nebraska, and belong to two different populations with mean values of 20.7 and 9.1 m/d, respectively. Finer sediments carried from the Loup River and Elkhorn River watersheds to the eastern reach of the Platte River lowers the vertical hydraulic conductivity of the streambed. Correlation coefficients between water depth and K _v values along a test transect indicates a positive correlation – a larger K _v usually occurs in the part of channel with deeper water. Experimental variograms derived from the vertical hydraulic conductivities for several transects across the channels of the Platte River show periodicity of spatial correlation, which likely result from periodic variation of water depth across the channels. The sandy to gravelly streambed contains very local silt and clay layers; spatially continuous low-permeability streambed was not observed in the river channels. The horizontal hydraulic conductivities were larger than the vertical hydraulic conductivities for the same test locations.     

NPZ Models of Plankton Dynamics: Their Construction, Coupling to Physics, and Application

Nutrient-phytoplankton-zooplankton (NPZ) models have been in use in oceanography for at least three decades, and are still a common research tool. Given the discoveries of the last two decades, particularly concerning the role of bacteria in the plankton, there are questions as to whether NPZ models can still be supported as a useful tool in planktonic research. Here I review the construction of NPZ models, and some of the physical platforms they have been coupled to. I then discuss the applications of NPZ-physical models, and conclude that they still constitute an important and viable research tool, provided that the questions being explored are clearly stated. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

利用多介质模型研究有机氯农药的环境行为

应用Ⅲ级多介质逸度环境模型研究了研究区3种有机氯农药p,p-’DDT、p,p-’DDE、p,p-’DDD的多介质行为。模型的计算结果表明:在研究区大气、水和沉积物中p,p-’DDT的浓度分别为0.019 8g/m3、0.016 8ng/L0、.313ng/g;p,p-’DDE的浓度分别为0.019 9g/m30、.001 65ng/L、0.124ng/g;p,p-’DDD的浓度分别为0.001 98g/m3、0.004 68ng/L、0.083 2ng/g。沉积物中的有机氯农药的含量占环境中有机氯农药总滞留量的99%以上,是有机氯农药的最主要的汇。然后计算了3种有机氯农药在环境中的相间迁移通量,其中水-沉积物迁移和沉积物-水迁移是最重要的迁移过程。     

全球气候变暖背景下索马里急流变化的预估研究

索马里急流的变化对亚洲季风和气候变动具有重要的影响,未来索马里急流到底会如何演变？如何受全球变暖的影响？针对这个问题,文中利用IPCC第四次评估报告（IPCC AR4）的多个海气耦合模式的模拟结果,评估了多个模式在当前气候（20C3M）条件下对夏季低空索马里急流的模拟能力;预估模式在SRESA2排放情景下对21世纪（2010—2099）的索马里急流变化。研究结果表明,18个模式在现代气候条件下对索马里急流有较好的模拟能力;18个模式的集合平均结果预测夏季索马里低空急流在21世纪的变化过程是：初期（2010—2040）增强至减弱,中期（2050—2060）增加至最强,末期（2070—2090）减至最弱。与现代气候条件模拟结果相比,夏季索马里低空急流在未来气候变暖背景条件下是趋于减弱的过程,在21世纪末期最弱。研究还表明了夏季低空索马里急流的变化幅度与全球平均气温的变化幅度是一个非线性的关系,各模式对二者关系的描述存在不确定性,鉴于索马里急流对印度季风和东亚季风及中国气候的重要性,索马里急流的变化规律和未来演变是科学界特别需要深入研究的问题。     

Explicit integration of bounding surface model for the analysis of earthquake soil liquefaction

This paper presents a new plasticity model developed for the simulation of monotonic and cyclic loading of non‐cohesive soils and its implementation to the commercial finite‐difference code FLAC, using its User‐Defined‐Model (UDM) capability. The new model incorporates the framework of Critical State Soil Mechanics, while it relies upon bounding surface plasticity with a vanished elastic region to simulate the non‐linear soil response. Stress integration of constitutive relations is performed using a recently proposed explicit scheme with automatic error control and substepping, which so far has been employed in the literature only for constitutive models aiming at monotonic loading. The overall accuracy of this scheme is evaluated at element level by simulating cyclic loading along complex stress paths and by using iso‐error maps for paths involving change of the Lode angle. The performance of the new constitutive model and its stress integration scheme in complex boundary value problems involving earthquake‐induced liquefaction is evaluated, in terms of accuracy and computational cost, via a number of parametric analyses inspired by the successful simulation of the VELACS centrifuge Model Test No. 2 studying the lateral spreading response of a liquefied sand layer. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

双源CT诊断兔急性肺栓塞实验研究

目的:应用双源CT探讨新西兰兔耳缘静脉注入明胶海绵制造急性肺动脉栓塞(PE)模型的可行性。方法:新西兰兔24只随机分为实验组(n=22只,按栓塞后检查时间分为2h、1d、3d和7d组)与对照组(n=2只)。实验组22只采用经耳缘静脉快速注射明胶海绵栓子制成急性PE模型,栓塞前后均行CTPA及肺灌注检查,检查结束后全部处死。对照组2只新西兰兔经耳缘静脉注入等渗盐水后立即处死。全部行病理检查。结果:22只实验组新西兰兔制模成功20只,其中有2只分别因为栓塞过量和麻醉过量而未取得数据,模型制备成功率为90%。以肺叶为单位,在CT图像上分析100个肺叶影像表现,可见栓塞后2h组对应的肺叶纹理稀疏12叶;1d及3d组对应肺叶呈磨玻璃改变22叶;7d组对应肺叶实变3叶。DEPI均呈现低灌注。病理检查发现:2h组相应肺组织呈鲜红色,未见结构破坏及肺泡渗出;1d组对应肺组织呈水肿、淤血、出血及炎细胞浸润改变;3d组部分肺组织轻度梗死,对应肺组织呈深红色,肺泡间隔增宽,大量炎细胞浸润;7d组肺泡腔被渗出物填充,对应肺组织呈暗红色,实变坏死。实验组共发现3只新西兰兔肺动脉管腔内含明胶海绵。结论:经新西兰兔耳缘静脉注射明胶海绵制作急性肺栓塞动物模型操作简单,成本低廉,成功率较高,是肺栓塞影像学研究较容易制作的实验模型。     

坝上草原相关花粉源范围与相对花粉产量估算

基于坝上草原地区30个采样点表土花粉分析和植被调查的研究结果显示, 花粉组合以蒿属、藜科、禾本科、菊科和莎草科等草本植物为主, 基本能够反映草原植被特征, 但花粉百分比与其在植被中盖度差异明显。运用Extended R-Value(ERV)模型估算的坝上草原区相关花粉源范围大致为2100m, 当风速大于3.5m/s时, 基本稳定, 受风速影响不大。估算的相对花粉产量结果显示, 蒿属和藜科的相对花粉产量最高, 为禾本科的20倍左右; 其次为莎草科和菊科, 为禾本科的7~9倍; 百合科略高于禾本科; 旋花科、豆科、唇形科及委陵菜属的相对花粉产量则明显低于禾本科。利用相对花粉产量对花粉与植被关系的校正结果表明: 蒿属、藜科的校正效果明显, 其相对花粉产量可以作为定量重建古植被的参考; 莎草科、菊科、百合科和唇形科由于受植被和花粉数据梯度限制, 其相对花粉产量能否用于植被与花粉关系的校正有待通过更多植被群落调查进一步证实;其他花粉类型由于在花粉组合中含量多低于5 %, 所以在校正花粉与植被关系时的作用不明显。     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

On the calculation of perturbations in the radial position of satellites

With the aim of analyzing the errors in the radial position of satellites, we give in this paper the expressions for the radial perturbation which include the complete zeroth- and first-order terms in the orbital eccentricity. A simpler and faster method of calculating the perturbation is given.