Geomagnetic Pc3 Pulsations During the Total Solar Eclipse on Aug 11, 1999

The solar eclipse on August 11, 1999, observed in the region covered by many geomagnetic observatories, has offered a unique opportunity to look for an effect of the eclipse on geomagnetic pulsations. The pulsation activity digital data have been taken from Budkov Observatory in the Czech Republic (in the X component only), from observatories in Germany (Niemegk, Fürstenfeldbruck, Bad Bergzabern), in Hungary (Nagycenk), and for comparison in South Africa (Hermanus, conjugate-point station), and in Finland (Sodankylä, far from the eclipse zone). At all these stations the field in all three component has been recorded. The pulsation amplitudes in the X component exhibit a long-term minimum near the time of the eclipse. Spectral analysis of selected short intervals confirmed this decrease and also revealed a decrease of the average pulsation period during the eclipse. Such a change in the amplitude or in the period was not observed outside of the eclipse interval or in other days. Investigation in some narrower frequency bands showed that the maximal decrease occurred in the 15–20 s band. All these changes can be found in records from all the stations near the eclipse totality belt, also in records at the conjugate-point station, where no eclipse occurred. No signature has been found in records at the station situated far from the eclipse zone.     

西南地区前兆观测异常特征和地震短期预测方法研究

通过对西南地区1970～2001年39组52次6级以上地震及四川部分5级以上地震震例资料的剖析,进一步研究西南地区各类前兆中、短期异常判据和指标;研究西南地区强震孕育前兆异常由中期向短期(临震)过渡、演化的标志和判据并作物理解释;并进行了西南地区前兆短期预测方法及强震短期预测时、空、强指标和判据的研究和西南地区地下流体新观测方法及灵敏测项的研究。     

GPS揭示的现今地壳运动与地震前兆特征

利用“中国地壳运动观测网络”产出的GPS观测资料,采用球坐标系下非连续变形算法对资源进行计算,以此为基础,对我国大陆地块及其边界带运动与形变进行了分析。对GPS基准站的连续观测序列采用小波变换进行分解变换,分析了部分震例,探讨了从GPS连续观测序列提取地震前兆的方法。初步取得两点认识：（1）7级以上的大地震主要发生在走滑运动量大的活动边界,且与高应变率地块有关,这可以作为地震中长期预测判据;（2）GPS基准站连续观测序列中的低频段,地震前6个月或稍长时段有一定的前兆异常出现,这可以作为地震中短期预测判据。     

菏泽MS 5.9地震前后地震前兆综合加权信息量的变化

地震前兆综合加权信息量是利用“地震预报专家系统”的思想对每一异常事件进行综合评估,考虑到异常的可靠性、有效性、显著性及相互关联性给予不同的权重,以每一异常事件的最可能发震时间来估算异常出现的概率,计算了山东地区1977年以来地震前兆综合加权信息量,分析了1983年11月7日菏泽Ms 5.9地震前信息量变化的特点。     

1997年伽师强震群活动的近场定点形变异常特征

对１９９７年伽师强震群前后的近场宁点形变资料和卡尔曼滤波结果的前兆异常进行了分析,结果表明,震前短临异常较为明显。通过密切跟踪,在后续强震的预报中发挥了重要作用。文中还对异常与孕震构造和应力场的关系进行了讨论。     

THE VARIATION OF THE SPRING PRECIPITATION IN GUANGZHOU AND ITS PRECURSORY SIGNALS

Guangzhou spring rainfall mainly exhibits interannual variation of Quasi-biannual and interdecadal variation of 30 yrs, and is in the period of weak rainfall at interdecadal time scale. SST anomalies (SSTA) of Nino3 are the strongest precursor of Guangzhou spring rainfall. They have significant positive correlation from previous November and persist stably to April. Nino3 SSTA in the previous winter affects Guangzhou spring rainfall through North Pacific subtropical high and low wind in spring. When Nino3 SSTA is positive in the previous winter, spring subtropical high is intense and westward, South China is located in the area of ascending airflow at the edge of the subtropical high, and water vapor transporting to South China is intensified by anticyclone circulation to the east of the Philippines. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is heavy. When Nino3 SSTA is negative, the subtropical high is weak and eastward, South China is far away from the subtropical high and is located in the area of descending airflow, and water vapor transporting to South China is weak because low-level cyclonic circulation controls areas to the east of the Philippines and north wind prevails in South China. So Guangzhou spring rainfall is weak and spring drought is resulted.     

地磁测量及其应用

地磁已广泛应用于地球科学、航天航空、交通通讯、地震预测、空间天气等诸多领域。鉴于地磁测量是地磁应用的基础，本文分析了现代地磁测量及其研究概况，展望了地磁应用发展趋势。     

温度、湿度对地磁Z基线值的影响及分析

仪器墩体受潮湿影响所产生的局部形变而引起的ZB磁变仪倾斜,是引起成都台CB3ZB变化幅度大,形成N字型年变化及其它类似形态变化的主要原因。实践证明,水泥墩湿引起的形变大,防潮效果差。而质地单纯均匀的石头墩受潮湿后引起的形变小,防潮效果好。     

康定温泉逸出气短期预测研究

康定温泉逸出气气体百分含量的观测始于1986年,期间先后经历了多次甘孜州及邻区5.0级以上地震。地震前康定温泉逸出气观测资料均有不同程度的短临异常。本文在系统整理和深入剖析两泉点自有观测以来的在甘孜州及邻区发生的5.0级以上地震震例资料的基础上,借助多次“攻关”成果,排除观测资料的各种干扰因素及仪器标定变更情况,总结各观测资料短临异常特征、中短期异常特征及中短期异常特征随时间变化规律,提出康定温泉逸出气短临异常指标。