地震活动性的细胞自动机模型

本文在二维平面设计了一个模拟地震活动性的细胞自动机模型，分析了模拟地震离列的活动性，并探讨了强震前场兆和源兆的物理机制，结果表明，模型的地震序列很好地反映了实际地震的丛集特性、幂律关系和空间转移概率的稳定性等特点。     

平凉C11井水位异常变化的地震前兆信息分析

着重分析1998年以来平凉C11井水位在西海固一平凉地区5次Ms〉4．0地震前的异常特征。通过分析得到的认识是，该井水位在Ms4．0以上地震前大都存在0．5a以上的趋势异常和年变规律的变化，震前1～2个月出现较丰富的短临前兆信息，如水位固体潮畸变、日潮差波幅增大、阶跃等微动态异常，这些分析结果曾在地震预报实践中发挥较好的作用。     

Measuring magnetic field in the 'diamagnetic' ionosphere

Satellite magnetometers sometimes pass through regions of plasma, such as the terrestrial ionosphere, where the ionization is large enough that some of the original ambient field is excluded from the plasma. This reduction of field inside the plasma region comes from the 'diamagnetic' effect of the charged particles in their helical trajectory around the magnetic field lines. The (container of the) magnetometer will exclude the plasma, and a simple-minded approach, treating the ionosphere in the same way as for a conventional diamagnetic fluid, predicts that the field seen by the magnetometer will be somewhat larger than the (reduced) field in the plasma. However, the 'diamagnetic' properties of the ionosphere are quite different from those of a conventional diamagnetic. In particular, there is a 'reflection' of the ionospheric charged particles at the surface of the magnetometer, and the overall effect is that the magnetometer does actually measure the field present in the plasma before the magnetometer is inserted. Similarly, any leakage fields from the magnetometer have no effect in the magnetosphere.     

Bootstrapped discrete scale invariance analysis of geomagnetic dipole intensity

The technique of bootstrapped discrete scale invariance allows multiple time-series of different observables to be normalized in terms of observed and predicted characteristic timescales. A case study is presented using the SINT2000 time-series of virtual axial dipole moment, which spans the past 2 Myr. It is shown that this sequence not only bears a clear signature of a preferred timescale of about 55.6 Ka, but additionally predicts similar features (of shorter and longer duration) that are actually observed on the timescales of historical secular variation and dipole reversals, respectively. In turn, the latter two empirical sources both predict the characteristic timescale found in the dipole intensity sequence. These communal scaling characteristics suggest that a single underlying process could be driving dynamo fluctuations across all three observed timescales, from years to millions of years.     

Analysis of sustained long-period activity at Etna Volcano, Italy

Following the installation of a broadband network on Mt. Etna, sustained Long-Period (LP) activity was recorded accompanying a period of total quiescence and the subsequent onset of the 2004–2005 effusive episode. From about 56000 events detected by an automatic classification procedure, we analyse a subset of about 3000 signals spanning the December 17th, 2003–September 25th, 2004, time interval. LP spectra are characterised by several, unevenly-spaced narrow peaks spanning the 0.5–10 Hz frequency band. These peaks are common to all the recording sites of the network, and different from those associated with tremor signals. Throughout the analysed time interval, LP spectra and waveforms maintain significant similarity, thus indicating the involvement of a non-destructive source process that we interpret in terms of the resonance of a fluid-filled buried cavity. Polarisation analysis indicates radiation from a non-isotropic source involving large amounts of shear. Concurrently with LP signals, recordings from the summit station also depict Very-Long-Period (VLP) pulses whose rectilinear motion points to a region located beneath the summit craters at depths ranging between 800 and 1100 m beneath the surface. Based on a refined repicking of similar waveforms, we obtain robust locations for a selected subset of the most energetic LP events from probabilistic inversion of travel-times calculated for a 3D heterogenous structure. LP sources cluster in a narrow volume located beneath the summit craters, and extending to a maximum depth of ≈ 800 m beneath the surface. No causal relationships are observed between LP, VLP and tremor activities and the onset of the 2004–2005 lava effusions, thus indicating that magmatic overpressure played a limited role in triggering this eruption. These data represent the very first observation of LP and VLP activity at Etna during non-eruptive periods, and open the way to the quantitative modelling of the geometry and dynamics of the shallow plumbing system.     

统计预测、经验预测、物理预测——近期国际地震预测预报研究的启示

从"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"的角度讨论了世纪之交地震预测预报研究的国际进展。"统计预测"包括地震预测预报方法的统计检验、"统计地震学",以及统计物理在地震预测预报中的应用;"经验预测"包括搜索可能的前兆异常的尝试、建立将可能的前兆异常现象与地震孕育过程联系起来的简单模型、发现对地震预测预报研究具有重要意义的新现象,以及地球介质变化的动态监测试验;"物理预测"包括地震孕育和发生的物理模型、地震断层带性质的观测和实验研究,以及对震源的直接探测和钻探。讨论了"统计预测"、"经验预测"、"物理预测"之间的关系,对"把经验预测或统计预测变成物理预测"的发展战略提出质疑。     

Ionospheric effetcs of an intense geomagnetic storm

An investigation of the response of the mid-high, mid and low latitude critical frequency foF2 to the geomagnetic storm of 15 July 2000 is made. Ground-based hourly foF2 values (proportional to square root of peak electron density of F2-layer) from four chains of ionospheric stations located in the geographic longitude ranges 10°W–35°E, 60°E–120°E, 130°E–170°E, 250°E–295°E are used. Relative deviations of foF2 are considered. The main ionospheric effects for the considered storm are: long-duration negative disturbances at mid-high latitudes in summer hemisphere in sectors where the storm onset occurred in the afternoon/night-time hours; short-duration positive disturbances in the summer hemisphere at mid-high latitudes in the pre-sunset hours during the end of main phase-first stage of the recovery; small and irregular negative disturbances in the low latitude winter hemisphere which predominate during the main phase and first part of the recovery, and positive disturbances in both hemispheres at mid-high and mid latitudes prior to the storm onset irrespective of the local time. In addition, the validity of some physical mechanisms proposed to explain the F2 region behaviour during disturbed conditions is considered. gus-mansilla@hotmail.com     

The structure of the mid- and high-latitude ionosphere during the November 2004 storm event obtained from GPS observations

GPS data from the International GNSS Service (IGS) network were used to study the development of the severe geomagnetic storm of November 7–12, 2004, in the total electron content (TEC) on a global scale. The TEC maps were produced for analyzing the storm. For producing the maps over European and North American sectors, GPS measurements from more than 100 stations were used. The dense network of GPS stations provided TEC measurements with a high temporal and spatial resolution. To present the temporal and spatial variation of TEC during the storm, differential TEC maps relative to a quiet day (November 6, 2004) were created. The features of geomagnetic storm attributed to the complex development of ionospheric storm depend on latitude, longitude and local time. The positive, as well as negative effects were detected in TEC variations as a consequence of the evolution of the geomagnetic storm. The maximal effect was registered in the subauroral/auroral ionosphere during substorm activity in the evening and night period. The latitudinal profiles obtained from TEC maps for Europe gave rise to the storm-time dynamic of the ionospheric trough, which was detected on November 7 and 9 at latitudes below 50°N. In the report, features of the response of TEC to the storm for European and North American sectors are analyzed.     

关于地球磁场极性反转机制的思索

地球磁场极性在地质历史中发生过相当频繁的倒转。作者将地球内部划分为岩石圈－软流圈－中圈－液圈－固核等5个动力学圈层，认为中圈与固核间可异步旋转；地球偶极磁场由中圈与固核异步旋转时所驱动的液圈中的封闭涡流与系磁场作用产生；该偶极子场极性由地球所通过的银道面上侧或下侧磁场方向及液圈涡流的方向共同决定，二者之一反向，极性发生倒转。