A model for the Am (Km) planetary geomagnetic activity index and application to prediction

We studied the existence of dynamical stochastic relations in the evolution of the am index. A first analysis of the autocorrelation functions showed evidence of several seasonalities. We first used linear (ARMA) models, and it was found that these do not account for the whole internal dynamics of the data series. We then used various non-linear models to provide a better fit to reality. The forecast performances of the non-linear models are not significantly different from those of the linear model. We give a tentative explanation for the failure of the non-linear predictions. Finally, ARCH models were used in order to take into account the fact that the confidence interval for the predicted value depends on past observations.     

Invariants in toroidal and tangentially geostrophic frozen-flux velocity fields

We derive two new types of invariant that must be obeyed by the radial magnetic field at the core-mantle boundary if the hypothesis of frozen flux is valid and the fluid motion is either toroidal or tangentially geostrophic there. These general invariants incorporate specific invariants that are already known and can, in principle, be tested using magnetic data that cover an interval of time.     

Periodicity of magnetic intensities in magnetic anomaly profiles: the Cenozoic of the South Atlantic

Spectral analyses of several published magnetic anomaly profiles from Candé & Kent (1992a) were undertaken prior to analysing, in the same way, raw magnetic anomaly data from similar parts of the South Atlantic. It was found that similar and distinct medium and short wavelengths were present in both the published and raw data. When these are converted into the time domain using the average rate of spreading for each profile, these periodicities appear similar, possibly identical, to those expected from the long-term eccentricity orbital parameters (Fischer, DeBoer & Premoli Silva 1990). While such correlations are not necessarily causative, they suggest that magnetohydro-dynamical processes near the core-mantle boundary may be affected by gravitational changes due to planetary orbital perturbations.     

静海地震台地磁短周期变化及其在地震短临预报中的应用

近年来的一些研究表明，由于地震前孕震区地下介质的电性结构的变化，将导致地磁短周期转换函数发生异常变化。通过对地震前后的地磁短周期转换函数的参数的计算、分析和研究，有可能提取出可靠的地震短临前兆异常（曾小苹等，１９９０）。为了进一步开展对该方法研究工作并使其在我区地震预测预报研究中得到应用，我们使用了静海台的地磁记录资料，分析计算了该台地磁短周期转换函数在地震前后的变化情况，确立了该方法应用天津地区地震预报的短临异常特征及指标，取得了较好的效果。     

地球脉动——表现、级别及与古地磁的联系

地球脉动的概念是指地球在其历史中曾发生膨胀和收缩的周期性变化。其根据是构造变动、岩浆活动、地磁极倒转以及海平面升降等方面，在地球的膨胀和收缩期，均有各种表现。构造 海平面升降在地球收缩期形成海退，在膨胀期形成海侵。在一个地球脉动旋回的不同时期，地表、海平面和洋底之间的相互关系均有变化，因而形成“层序”的沉积记录。地磁场的强度和地磁极倒转频率在显生宙有明显变化，有高峰期和平静期。这种频率变化与构造变动和岩浆活动都有对应关系，特别是４Ｍａ为准周期的地磁极倒转频率与海底扩张、洋壳形成速率之间具有良好的对应关系。地球脉动旋回可以分为不同的级次，构成级别体系：超级旋回约１Ｇａ，巨旋回２５０～３００Ｍａ，一级旋回５０～１５０Ｍａ，二级旋回５～５０Ｍａ，三级旋回１～５Ｍａ，均可与构造旋回相对应，更高的级次对构造不形成影响。三级及更长的脉动旋回可能受深部过程的控制。中、新生代以来，地球脉动是在地球适度膨胀的背景下进行的。     

巴楚-伽师Ms6.8地震地磁异常特点分析

通过分析、比较1996--2003年喀什地震台站记录到的新疆伽师及附近地区发生的多次6级地震的地磁前兆异常特征，发现在这几组地震活动过程中喀什地震台的地磁表现出不同的异常特征，说明与地震破裂特征有更深层次的相关性，且地磁响应比异常和总强度差值异常在一定程度上反映了台站周围小范围的震源区介质电性结构的变化。巴楚-伽师6．8级地震前地磁异常特征并不十分突出，有别于1996—1998年伽师强震群震前地磁异常量较丰富的特点。     

Physical disturbance creates bacterial dominance of benthic biological communities in tropical deltaic environments of the Gulf of Papua

Unlike many reactive continental shelf mud deposits in temperate regions, bacteria and microfauna rather than macrofauna typically dominate benthic biomass and activities over large areas of the Gulf of Papua (GoP) deltaic complex, Papua New Guinea. During mid NW monsoon periods (Jan–Feb), macrofaunal densities at Gulf stations were relatively low (), large macroinfauna were absent (upper 25 cm), and small (), surface deposit-feeding polychaetes and tubiculous amphipods were dominant, reflecting a frequently destabilized seabed and high sedimentation/erosion rates. Although frequent physical disturbance generally inhibits development of macrobenthic communities, some regions of the Gulf deposits are periodically colonized and extensively bioturbated during quiescent periods, as shown by preserved biogenic sedimentary structures. Bacterial inventories integrated over the top 20 cm were extremely variable within each sub region of the clinoform complex. A possible bimodal pattern with bathymetric depth and distance offshore may occur: lowest-inventories within the sandy, proximal Fly River delta, an open Gulf inner topset zone (10–20 m) having sites of relatively high inventories, an open Gulf mid-topset region with intermediate values and less extreme variation, and the outer topset—upper foreset zone (40–50 m) where highest values are attained (). Various measures of microbial activity, including measures proportional to the cellular rRNA content and the proportion of dividing cells, indicate extremely productive populations over the upper 1-m of the seabed throughout the Gulf of Papua region. Bacterial biomass (0–20 cm) including data of Alongi et al. (1991, 1992, 1995) varied from a low of in intertidal mud banks to a high of in the topset—foreset zone. Macrofaunal biomass did not exceed in any sampled region, ranging from 0.009±0 to with no obvious correlation with bathymetric depth (1–63 m). Meiofaunal biomass was generally an order of magnitude lower than macrofaunal biomass. Relatively elevated bacterial biomass and high turnover rates are consistent with high measured rates of benthic remineralization, presumably reflecting the rapid response time of bacteria to physical reworking, the associated entrainment of organic substrate, and flushing of metabolites. Solute exchange is also enhanced below the directly mixed surface region, possibly producing ‘far field’ stimulation of microbes in underlying deposits. Physical reworking and reoxidation of sediments between 10 and 50 m water depth maintain suboxic, nonsulfidic conditions in the upper 0.5–1 m despite active microbial communities and high benthic remineralization rates.     

盾构近距离穿越施工对已运营隧道的扰动影响分析

基于盾构施工对周围土体及构筑物的扰动影响机理,通过实测数据对盾构近距离穿越扰动影响问题进行了定量分析,并讨论了运营隧道对各盾构施工参数的敏感性.研究结果表明盾构穿越对已建地铁隧道的扰动影响主要以隧道的竖向位移为主.随着盾构推进,隧道结构纵向上呈波浪状,其隆起峰值不断沿推进方向移动.盾尾后隧道段受盾构穿越的影响显著,但隆起峰值始终位于盾尾后.     

RIVER SYSTEM AND DISTURBANCE FACTORS IN THE LAKE TOBA

Situated at an elevation of 905 m above sea level in the Province of North Sumatra, Lake Toba and its surrounding landscapes are regarded as a natural heritage in a certain extent, as a quoted national treasure. Unfortunately degradation of the land and water resources in the watershed along Lake Toba is taking place at an alarming and totally unacceptable rate. The quality of the lake is partly depended on input the quality of the rivers. When compared to the control area the water quality that influenced by the piggeries are highly polluted. It can be concluded that the Salbe River at the downstream of the piggeries has been polluted and apparently it is a serious problem to the catchment area management. It should be noted that the polluted river would influence the water quality of the Lake Toba. Based on calculation, the permissible BOD5 according to B- river standard is 238 mg/L, it means the river still in B standard but the condition and quality are decreasing continuously. Following the Indonesian health standard the permissible BOD is - 461 mg/L. It means BOD in the river should be reduced 461 mg/L or clean program is needed.