新疆7级强震前的围空特征

讨论了新疆40年代以来所发生的8次7级强震前的围空现象。结果表明,除1974年巴里坤7.1级地震因资料不全外,7级强震前均出现明显的围空现象。研究发现,这种围空一般都经历了三个过程,时间通常为10—20年。最后分析讨论了7级强震前围空的特征以及判别指标。这将为今后确定强震危险区提供依据。     

云南地区6级以上地震前M_s≥4.7级地震的时空特征标度

本文研究了1920年以来,云南地区M_s≥4.7级地震的时间序列及空间分布的特征标度。结果表明,当区内M_s≥4.7级地震在时间序列上出现我们定义的平静段和活跃段后,分别于418天和312天内即可能发生6级以上地震,对应率分别为71％和87％,1920年以来云南11次M_s≥6.8级地震前,出现活跃和平静特征标度的各5次。在空间上绝大多数(80％)大震震中处于我们所定义的长时间大范围空白缺震背景区或相对少震区内,仅少数(20％)位于4.7级以上地震相对密集区内或附近。4.7级以上地震上述时间序列及空间分布特征标度,可以作为云南6级,特别是6.8级以上地震中期或短期预测的判据和指标。同时可以看出,云南6级以上地震前,4.7级以上地震在时空演变上,经历了从无序到有序的演化过程。     

Thermal bidirectional gap probability model for row crop canopies and validation

Land surface temperature is a key parameter in monitoring the status of crop water stress by remote sensing, and studying the water and energy balance in cropland ecosystem. The component temperatures of crop and soil are especially significant in remote …     

国家之间经济发展水平比较与中国的差距

为了促进现代化的实现,作者试图找出中国与发达国家之间的经济差距,并选取了世界银行公布数据的三个指标,代入自己设计的简便公式,测得中国与韩国、希腊的经济差距为26年(以2000年基准)。于是作者将发达国家分为一般发达国家和高度发达国家,把发展中国家分为一般发展中国家和发展中的发达国家。作者预计2020年中国将达到发展中的发达国家水平。并预测中国将在2007年经济总量超英国;中国与英国的人均水平差距约为34年。中国与美国经济总量的差距约为35年,中美之间的人均水平差距约为44年,动态差距将在50年以上。结论,中国在2030年将可达到一般发达国家水平,即可实现现代化。     

Seismic Activity Around and Under Krakatau Volcano,Sunda Arc: Constraints to the Source Region of Island Arc Volcanics

There is general agreement that calc-alkaline volcanic rocks at convergent plate margins are genetically related to the process of subduction (Ringwood, 1974; Maaloe and Petersen, 1981; Hawkesworth et al., 1997). However, opinions on the mode and site of generation of primary magma for island arc volcanism differ substantially. The site of generation of calc-alkaline magma is thought to be either in the mantle wedge (Plank and Langmuir, 1988; McCulloch and Gamble, 1991) or in the subducting slab (White and Dupré, 1986; Defant and Drummond, 1990; Edwards et al., 1993; Ryan and Langmuir, 1993). We present seismological evidence in favour of the latter concept. A distinctive seismicity pattern around and under the Krakatau volcano was identified during systematic studies of the SE Asian convergent plate margins by means of global seismological data. A column-like cluster of events, probably associated with the dynamics of the volcano, is clearly separated from the events in the Wadati-Benioff zone. The accuracy of hypocentral determinations of the events of the cluster does not differ from the accuracy of the events belonging to the subducting slab. The depths of the cluster events vary from very shallow to about 100 km without any apparent discontinuity. On the other hand, there is a pronounced aseismic gap in the Wadati-Benioff zone directly beneath the volcano at depths between 100-150 km. The Krakatau cluster connects this aseismic gap to the volcano at the surface. The pervasive occurrence of earthquakes in the continental wedge between the subducting slab and the Earth surface bears witness to the brittle character of the continental lithosphere and casts doubt on the existence of large-scale melting of mantle material. The aseismic gap (Hanu and Vank, 1985), interpreted by us as a partially melted domain occurring in subducted slabs in practically all active subduction zones that reach depths greater than 100 km, is here used as evidence for the location of the primary source region of island arc volcanics in the subducting plate.     

2003年北黄海5.1级地震的地震活动特征

对2003年北黄海5．1级地震的地震活动背景、地震序列、震中周围中小地震活动图像及地震学参数等进行了详细分析。认为该次地震为前-主-余型，经历了一个活跃-平静-发震的过程；地震前震中附近出现了孕震空区和一些地震活动性参数异常。     

Metallogenetic characteristics of an unique uranium-tungsten mineralization zone

A polymetallic zone dominated by U-W mineralization was found in Northeast Guangxi. Distributed along the east contact zone of a complex granite mass, it extends for about 100 km in length, with more than fifty deposits and prospects embraced. The deposits show a wide range of genetic types, related to the granite, from magmatic (including pegmatite and skarn deposits) through hydrothermal mineralizations (hypo-, meso- and epithermal) all the way to tin placers, constituting a very intact metallogenetic series of granites. The epithermal U-W deposits are considered as a new type for their unique geological and geochemical characters, such as the paragenesis of U and W and the large time gap (> 40 Ma) between ore and granite. This project was financially supported by the Open Lab. of Ore Deposit Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

White dwarf + red dwarf binary systems and the period gap of cataclysmic variables

Cataclysmic variables (CV) and pre-cataclysmic binaries (PCB) are discussed. The main difference between them (accretion or its absence) is shown to be a consequence of the evolutionary process and the properties of their progenitors. Both types of system have a bimodal distribution of their periods, but the extrema are in counterphase. Luminosity-effective temperature diagrams for the primary components are used to show that both systems have approximately the same age, which conflicts with the notion of PCBs as precursors of CVs. Calculations of the maximum distance between components for which the system remains stable show that CVs have passed this limit, while PCBs maintain their stability during this evolution. It is suggested that, after ejecting a common shell, future CVs immediately become semi-detached systems. It this is so, then there must be cataclysmic variables which are the central stars of planetary nebulae. __________ Translated from Astrofizika, Vol. 50, No. 3, pp. 427–439 (August 2007).     

Species richness,diversity and density of understory vegetation along disturbance gradients in the Himalayan conifer forest

We investigated whether species richness, diversity and density of understory herbaceous plants differed along logging(gap) and grazing(primarily by cattle) disturbance gradients, and sought to identify drivers of richness, diversity and density of understory vegetation of logged sites. A factorial experiment was conducted in the mixed conifer forest of Gidakom in Western Bhutan. Levels of the logging treatment included small(0.15 – 0.24 ha), medium(0.25 – 0.35 ha) and large(0.36 – 1.31 ha) gaps. The grazing treatment included grazed(primarily by cattle) and ungrazed(where herbivores were excluded by a fence) plots nested within each gap. Data were collected from 12 gaps(4 replicates at each level of logging) using the point intercept method. Shannon Weaver Diversity and Margalef's indices were used to estimate species diversity and describe species richness, respectively. Soil samples were analyzed for pH and nutrients. The interaction effect of logging and grazing was significant(p≤0.001) only on species diversity. Relative to ungrazed areas, species diversity was significantly higher(0.01≤p≤0.05) in medium grazed gaps. Under grazed conditions, soil P was negatively correlated with gap size and species diversity. While species diversity was positivelycorrelated(0.01≤p≤0.05) with soil N in grazed plots species richness was positively correlated(0.001≤p≤0.01) with soil N in ungrazed plots. Relative density of Yushania microphylla and Carex nubigena were higher under ungrazed conditions. Our study suggests that the combined effect of cattle grazing and logging results in higher species diversity of understory vegetation in medium and grazed gaps in mixed conifer forests of Bhutan,whereas increase or decrease in relative density of major species is determined primarily by the independent effects of grazing and logging. From management perspective, forest managers must refrain from creating large gaps to avoid loss of nutrients(mainly P and N), which may eventually affect tree regeneration. Managers intending to maintain understory vegetation diversity must consider the combined effects of grazing and logging, ensuring low to moderate grazing pressure.     

城市地铁变形监测数据处理

为确保地铁施工安全进行变形监测是非常重要的手段,而变形监测的最终目的是预测,即对观测物的未来形态进行预报和分析。时间序列的原理是找出事物随时间变化的规律,从而对数据变化趋势做出正确的分析和预报。本文通过对时间序列的研究对长春地铁繁荣路站的变形监测数据进行了分析和预报。