华北地区地震空区的统计分析

对华北地区1970—2017年出现的地震空区采用统一的识别标准进行全时空清理研究, 结果表明, 华北地区M≥5地震前出现空区的比例为36.7%, 且华北地区M_L≥3.0地震空区的持续时间与主震震级存在一定的线性正相关关系, 但长轴尺度、 起始震级与主震震级的线性关系不明显; 报准率为0.76, 虚报率为0.24, 漏报率为0.60, R值为0.32, 高于具有97.5%置信水平的R₀值, 表明地震空区这种预测方法在华北地区具有较好的预报效果。     

3D <Emphasis Type="Italic">v</Emphasis><Subscript>P</Subscript> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">v</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> models of southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau from joint inversion of body-wave arrival times and surface-wave dispersion data

A new 3D velocity model of the crust and upper mantle in the southeastern (SE) margin of the Tibetan plateau was obtained by joint inversion of body- and surface-wave data. For the body-wave data, we used 7190 events recorded by 102 stations in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The surface-wave data consist of Rayleigh wave phase velocity dispersion curves obtained from ambient noise cross-correlation analysis recorded by a dense array in the SE margin of the Tibetan plateau. The joint inversion clearly improves the v _S model because it is constrained by both data types. The results show that at around 10 km depth there are two low-velocity anomalies embedded within three high-velocity bodies along the Longmenshan fault system. These high-velocity bodies correspond well with the Precambrian massifs, and the two located to the northeast of 2013 M _S 7.0 Lushan earthquake are associated with high fault slip areas during the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The aftershock gap between 2013 Lushan earthquake and 2008 Wenchuan earthquake is associated with low-velocity anomalies, which also acts as a barrier zone for ruptures of two earthquakes. Generally large earthquakes (M ≥ 5) in the region occurring from 2008 to 2015 are located around the high-velocity zones, indicating that they may act as asperities for these large earthquakes. Joint inversion results also clearly show that there exist low-velocity or weak zones in the mid-lower crust, which are not evenly distributed beneath the SE margin of Tibetan plateau.     

六盘山断裂带的地震构造特征与强震危险背景

集成活动构造与震源机制解、重新定位小震分布、历史与现今地震、GPS速度场等资料,综合分析了六盘山断裂带的构造动力学条件与变形方式、横剖面构造、历史强震破裂背景、GPS形变以及现代地震活动性,进而探讨了该断裂带的强震危险背景.结果表明：NNW向六盘山断裂带的运动与变形主要缘于青藏地块东北缘的向东水平挤出受到相对稳定的华北地块西缘（鄂尔多斯地块）阻挡而聚集的水平挤压作用;此外,海原和陇县-宝鸡两条NW向走滑断裂带的左旋运动在右阶区的局部会聚作用,也由六盘山断裂带的变形与运动来承受与转换.横剖面上,六盘山断裂带表现为向东推覆的大型逆冲构造带,主滑脱带位于~25 km深处,之下很可能存在分隔青藏与华北地块的超壳-岩石圈型深断裂带.沿六盘山断裂带中-南段以及更靠南东的陇县-宝鸡断裂带存在总长为120~140 km、至少最近~1400年未发生M ≥ 6½强震破裂的地震空区.地震空区内的断裂,GPS形变显示已有显著应变积累,地震活动上出现为小震稀疏或空缺的部位,以及低b值区,反映那里的断面业已闭锁,并已有高应力积累.因此,六盘山断裂带中-南段和陇县-宝鸡断裂带应是未来可能发生强震/大地震的两个危险地段,潜在地震的最大矩震级估值分别为M_W=7.3±和7.2±.     

城区渗流场中建筑物间缝隙有限元简化分析方法

为解决城区渗流场中缝隙多、区域的大尺度与物体的小尺寸相差了几个数量级，有限元分析上存在的困难，根据缝隙流动的解析解，经适当地简化，将缝隙附近的渗流场分为缝外区和缝内区两部分，将缝外区流动简化为一个半径为半缝宽的井流，缝内区流动简化为一个均匀流。引入附加阻力系数，考虑缝隙出入口附近的由于过水断面突然变化而引的局部水头损失，并得到附加阻力系数的表达式。利用该式，结合渗流场中井点水头的修正公式，得到了能有效模拟渗流场中建筑物间缝隙的修正线单元公式。利用该线单元编制了相关程序模拟城区渗流场中的缝隙，使得缝隙出入口处的网格尺寸为缝隙两边的建筑物边长1/3～1/4时就能得到较为准确的结果，避免了区域性渗流场中小尺寸物体的网格划分问题，通过算例验证了该公式的精度和边界适应性。     

Structural and geological characteristics of a “seismic gap” in the central part of the Kuril Island Arc

The results of the cruise of R/V Akademik M.A. Lavrentiev conducted by the Pacific Institute of Oceanology, Far East Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences in August to September 2005 are considered. The aim of the works was to specify the tectonic structure, seismogenic potential, and tsunamigenic hazard of the central segment of the Kuril Island Arc. The complex studies involved single-channel seismic profiling, gravimetry, magnetometry, detailed bathymetry, dredge sampling of sea-floor rocks and sediments, and gas geochemistry. Geophysical and geological data are reported. It was demonstrated that the target area is an active tectonic destruction zone, the zone boundaries were outlined, and the main internal structural and compositional heterogeneities were identified.     

华北北部地区地震中短期前兆场的震中区前兆空区模式

华北北部地区３次强震的交兆场研究结果表明,在地震发生前几个至十几（或几十个）个月的时间尺度上,未来震中区表现为前兆平静或空白的特征,同期外转眍中小地震活动十分活跃,地震前兆异常也大量涌现。根据这些现象,提出了地震中短期前兆场的震中区前兆空区模式。     

山东省东西部地区差距衡量指标体系及测算分析

笔者认为 ,通常所说的地区差距应该是指经济、社会以及影响经济和社会发展的各方面要素的差距组成的“集合体” ,即区域间社会经济综合实力水平的差距。基于对地区差距的这一理解 ,在定性分析的基础上 ,提出一套以定量为主、定性与定量相结合的地区差距衡量指标体系及定量化测算方法 ,并运用它对山东省东西部地区之间的差距进行定量计算和分析比较。     

库玛断裂带强震活动与地震空区研究

库玛断裂带作为青藏高原内部的一条强地震活动带, 1900年以来发生过3次7级地震,其中2次7级大震前均出现5级以上地震的背景空区,表明背景空区对该带大震具有中长期预报意义。最近一次背景空区业已形成,并出现与之配套的孕震空区,其演化图像符合强震孕育模式。研究发现,库玛断裂带中段M_L 3以上地震空区,对共和7级强震及周边200 km的强震有前兆意义。     

基于间隙参数模型的盾构隧道周围土体位移分析

基于一种盾构加载模型并引进间隙参数的概念,对盾构隧道周围土体位移的机理及预测方法进行了总结。盾构相对于设计轴线的偏移是影响土体变形的主要原因之一。确定间隙参数是应用解析方法的关键步骤,提出了一个半经验、半解析方法,并针对一个工程实例把现场测量值和理论计算值进行了对比分析。     

A multi‐source precipitation estimation approach to fill gaps over a radar precipitation field: a case study in the Colorado River Basin

The present work develops an approach to seamlessly blend satellite, available radar, climatological and gauge precipitation products to fill gaps in ground‐based radar precipitation field. To mix different precipitation products, the error of any of the products relative to each other should be removed. For bias correction, the study uses an ensemble‐based method that aims to estimate spatially varying multiplicative biases in SPEs using a radar precipitation product. A weighted successive correction method (SCM) is used to make the merging between error corrected satellite and radar precipitation estimates. In addition to SCM, we use a combination of SCM and Bayesian spatial model for merging the rain gauges (RGs) and climatological precipitation sources with radar and SPEs. We demonstrated the method using a satellite‐based hydro‐estimator; a radar‐based, stage‐II; a climatological product, Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model and a RG dataset for several rain events from 2006 to 2008 over an artificial gap in Oklahoma and a real radar gap in the Colorado River basin. Results show that: the SCM method in combination with the Bayesian spatial model produced a precipitation product in good agreement with independent measurements. The study implies that using the available radar pixels surrounding the gap area, RG, Parameter‐elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model and satellite products, a radar‐like product is achievable over radar gap areas that benefit the operational meteorology and hydrology community. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.